Oscars: Will Emmanuelle Riva topple Jennifer Lawrence?
 

Pretty much the whole way through this awards season JLaw has been the frontrunner for Best Actress in Silver Linings Playbook (Jessica Chastain hasn't a hope now). However after Riva won the BAFTA for Amour a lot of people are saying she could now challenge for the Oscar.

I'm in two minds about this. I've seen Silver Linings (twice) and Lawrence would definitely deserve it IMO. I've not seen Amour but I only hear amazing things about it. Plus it would be a pretty amazing fairytale to see a relatively unknown French veteran (who turns 86 on Oscar night!) win.

What's everyone's thoughts? :)

Riva has been the BAFTA favourite for months, so her win there doesn't really change anything other than eliminating Jessica Chastain.

She could do it and she has some things going for her, but she also has a bunch of things going against her. My pick would be Jennifer, but it's not something I would call with confidence.

The BAFTAs aren't always an indicator of Oscar success. Riva hasn't featured at any of the major awards in the US so far, so I doubt she's got a chance at the Oscars.

My money's still (not literally, I don't gamble) on Lawrence.

riva has a chance. her film has 5 nominations, a lot for a foreign language film. this should encourage more voters to actually watch the film.


as i said in another thread, the riva-jlaw situation reminds me of the year DDL and jack nicholson were the frontrunners just like jlaw/chastain, then adrien brody also out of nowhere won the BAFTA for the pianist and then the oscar.

Brody didn't win the BAFTA that year. He was also up against 4 previous winners which no doubt helped a great deal.

he didn't?:o

sorry, my bad... just checked, DDL won BAFTA!!:D

I really wouldn't be suprised but to be honest, 4 of the 5 performances are so different, strong and fantastic that I personally am not fussed on who wins, as long as Chastain doesn't win for her average performance

I would really like Lawerence to win as i found her peformance much more meaningful to me.

Amour is slight being rated as something amazing, but I have seen it and personally found it rather ok. In terms of foreign films, it should of been Rust & Bone stealing all the glory which I found was a much better film with an even better peformance by a lead actress by Marion Cotillad.

I agree with all of this post. Rust & Bone was wonderful and Cotillard's performance deserved at least a nod.

Riva was great, but Lawrence should take home the award, imo.

Why Marion wasn't nommed is a mystery to me..she could have won.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's because she won so recently - it has only been 5 years (or 6?), so they may feel that they shouldn't recognise her again just yet - it took them 30 years to give Meryl Streep her 3rd!

I don't feel that is an excuse really

For example, Jodie Foster and Hilary Swank won both their oscars in between a few years of each other. I think there was two years between The Accused and SIlence.

Whether they have won recently or not, it isn't an excuse for someone to be nominated. It took them 30 years to give Meryl another oscar because nearly every damn film she gives the performance of her life so they were spoilt for choice.

Jodie's wins were a while ago though, and there were 5 years between Hilary's wins, that's true, but she hasn't had a look-in since, and Marion has only just passed 5 years since her win and is regularly at least close to a nomination. She'll get her 2nd nomination/win I'm sure.

I'm not saying that a recent win is an excuse for someone not to be nominated, I'm saying that recently it seems the Academy does think in that vein, at least some of the time. There's a difference.