DS Forums

 
 

Showing results 1 to 25 of 500
Search took 3.02 seconds.
Search: Key Word(s): ; Posts Made By: paulschapman
Forum: Politics 17-03-2015, 16:23
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Would he not give it up as a lost cause ;)

Would he not give it up as a lost cause ;)
Forum: Politics 16-03-2015, 15:16
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Electoral Calculus gives the following...

Electoral Calculus gives the following seats



CON 37.0% 307
LAB 29.7% 258
LIB 23.6% 57
UKIP 3.2% 0
SNP 1.7% 6
PlaidC 0.6%
Forum: Politics 16-03-2015, 11:32
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
There is a 3% error on the polls so even those...

There is a 3% error on the polls so even those figures it could be that Labour is in the lead, or the Conservatives. Traditionally polls have under-estimated Conservative support - so it is more...
Forum: Politics 12-03-2015, 15:06
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Then why did you say his was a poor performance?

Then why did you say his was a poor performance?
Forum: Politics 12-03-2015, 14:13
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Why? - it was predicted that whoever won in 2010...

Why? - it was predicted that whoever won in 2010 would end up being unpopular because they would have to do unpopular things while in power.
Forum: Politics 11-03-2015, 15:51
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
If Clegg has lost his seat then the Liberals...

If Clegg has lost his seat then the Liberals would need to vote a new leader for the Liberal Parliamentary Party and that is who would negotiate a coalition.
Forum: Politics 10-03-2015, 12:10
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Even if that was the case - the boundary changes...

Even if that was the case - the boundary changes that should have gone through would have left a bias in favour of Labour just less of one than they had.

The move to same sized constituencies was to...
Forum: Politics 10-03-2015, 10:12
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
I would have thought so - I do not think he is...

I would have thought so - I do not think he is doing himself any favours with all the prevaricating.

I think one of the thoughts behind it is the sense that the British tend to support the underdog...
Forum: Politics 10-03-2015, 09:29
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Doubt it has anything to do with cowardice - more...

Doubt it has anything to do with cowardice - more a reflection of what happened last time, and there is no real benefit for the Conservatives in doing them.

Back in 2010 Nick Clegg did very well out...
Forum: Politics 02-03-2015, 16:23
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
So another election within 12 months of the next...

So another election within 12 months of the next one ;)
Forum: Politics 16-02-2015, 13:31
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Assuming there is zero interest in the existing...

Assuming there is zero interest in the existing coalition continuing and the Liberals sided with Labour that gives 298 seats to Conservative/UKIP and 300 to Labour/Liberal (301 if you include the...
Forum: Politics 16-02-2015, 12:52
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Predicting the election result via the polls is...

Predicting the election result via the polls is the equivalent of the Romans using auguries given how much the polls fluctuate. That said in previous elections while people have often moved to the...
Forum: Politics 13-02-2015, 14:31
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
No it is not being missed - what is the surprise...

No it is not being missed - what is the surprise is that Ed has not got an 11% in the lead. He has the advantage of highlighting the problems with policy without having to demonstrate the problems...
Forum: Politics 10-02-2015, 16:26
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
That would be nice ;-) but I doubt the...

That would be nice ;-)

but I doubt the Conservatives will get 41% - Blair did not manage that in 2001 (he got 40.7%). 1997 was the last time a winning party got more than 41% or more.
Forum: Politics 09-02-2015, 08:41
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
The trouble for Labour is that compared with...

The trouble for Labour is that compared with recent elections polls have underestimated the Conservative vote and slightly over estimated support for Labour (the so called shy Tories - the same...
Forum: Politics 05-02-2015, 22:17
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
No since in the example I gave Labour did not win...

No since in the example I gave Labour did not win the popular vote but did get a majority.
Forum: Politics 05-02-2015, 21:21
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
What about 1974 (Feb) Conservatives got...

What about 1974 (Feb) Conservatives got 11,872,180 against 11,645,616 for Labour but Labour got 4 extra seats

see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_February_1974

Oh and...
Forum: Politics 05-02-2015, 08:22
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
I would have expected the other way around to be...

I would have expected the other way around to be honest
Forum: Politics 04-02-2015, 13:33
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
It is not just an excuse - it is also why Cameron...

It is not just an excuse - it is also why Cameron did not get a majority despite polling more votes than Blair did. The Conservatives have to get 40% of the popular vote just to have a majority of 1....
Forum: Politics 04-02-2015, 12:49
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
No you mean you want him to go - put simply a...

No you mean you want him to go - put simply a coalition of some kind is almost certain now. Nor does your statement stack up given the current state of the boundaries.
Forum: Politics 30-01-2015, 08:18
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
ZHC (which are not unique to the coalition period...

ZHC (which are not unique to the coalition period anyway) only accounts for 3-4% of those in work even by the largest estimate of numbers.



If they were fake self-employed then the Tax Office would...
Forum: Politics 27-01-2015, 19:36
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
The boundary commission (which is independent of...

The boundary commission (which is independent of any political party) makes regular changes to remove any bias. The practical upshot of the shenanigans by the Liberals is that the bias that existed...
Forum: Politics 27-01-2015, 16:52
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Your point? While the bias which exists favours...

Your point?

While the bias which exists favours both parties - the bias in favour of Labour is considerably more - which is why Cameron got 1% more of the vote than Blair but the former ends up with...
Forum: Politics 27-01-2015, 15:33
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Those proposals were published - did not get any...

Those proposals were published - did not get any further and this is what the Liberals complained of and they then decided to torpedo the move to fixed sized constituencies. Thus continuing the...
Forum: Politics 27-01-2015, 10:44
Replies: 12,157
Views: 456,220
Posted By paulschapman
Being PM is in effect in the gift of the Monarch...

Being PM is in effect in the gift of the Monarch who will invite either Cameron or Milliband to be PM. At the time of the 2010 election it was suggested that the incumbent has first dibs - so that...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
Forum Jump

All times are GMT. The time now is 01:49.