They're going off officials I think, that's what they said when I contacted them. It's the reason I didn't bet myself, because I can see Downton beating Call the Midwife/Strictly with timeshift, even if one of the latter two win in the overnights.
Interesting as I think they paid out on overnights last year and screwed themselves over. However I think Call The Midwife will win in the final ratings as well and be over 12m.
Nobody is expecting much from The Royle Family are they?