Bookies now disagree, as for the first time since the nominations were announced Lincoln has been overtaken as favourite by Argo.
In a sense it was inevitable that would happen given it's consistent failure to land much in the way of awards.
Last chance of a shot in the arm for Lincoln I feel is the DGA's this weekend, as Speilberg has historically done well there. On the other hand if it fails to win there I think it's effectively dead in the water.
Hence why I am waiting till after the DGA's to make my predications.
You may well be right! I still think the lack of director nomination for Affleck means Argo won't win the Oscar. I'd be more than happy to eat my words though come Feb 24th, even if it'll ruin my predictions score!