Having seen Argo I can't join in with the "Ben Affleck was snubbed" campaign, I have to wonder if he/Argo would be winning so many awards if it wasn't for the so called snub. I will try to watch it again before the 24th, but I really don't get what the fuss is about.
I do think Christoph Waltz will get Best Supporting Actor, but I don't think he deserves it more than Tommy Lee Jones or Robert De Niro, he is the best thing about Django by a long way but his performance in Inglourious Basterds was much better.
I disagree with you completely about Argo, It's been my favourite of the films nominated and I honestly feel the direction was special.
You may have a point about Affleck winning because of the snub but to be able to win even on a sympathy vote you have to be nominated in the first place which he was. He didn't receive any nominations due to sympathy, the Oscars are the last organisation to release their nominations and whereas the presence of Haneke, Bigelow, Hooper, Tarantino and Russell have varied from list to list, one constant has been Affleck's nomination for Argo. Except for some reason at the Oscars.
ETA - his and Argo's win at the Golden Globes couldn't have been in response to his Oscar snub since the GG voting this year finished before the Oscar nominations were announced. So the Foreign Press Association clearly thought he deserved the win. The Critics Choice awards were awarded on the same day as the Oscar nominations so again no sympathy vote there.