Having seen Argo I can't join in with the "Ben Affleck was snubbed" campaign, I have to wonder if he/Argo would be winning so many awards if it wasn't for the so called snub. I will try to watch it again before the 24th, but I really don't get what the fuss is about.
I do think Christoph Waltz will get Best Supporting Actor, but I don't think he deserves it more than Tommy Lee Jones or Robert De Niro, he is the best thing about Django by a long way but his performance in Inglourious Basterds was much better.
I disagree entirely about Argo as well, best film I've seen this year, and that's coming from a complete Les Mis addict who thought nothing would top that movie. I thought the direction in Argo was wonderful, and it deserves all the accolades it's getting.
At least Affleck still has a decent chance of walking away with an Oscar as he'll get one if Argo wins Best Picture.
As for hints from last night, not much new I don't think: Daniel Day-Lewis could have written his speech weeks ago, Anne Hathaway could have been working on hers since the SAGs (it'll be as much of a shock as Juliette Binoche winning [though I don't think that was undeserved, I'm just talking about opinion at the time] if she loses now).
Christoph Waltz may well get Supporting Actor, it's strange how much momentum Tommy Lee Jones has lost in that category. I still don't think he's entirely out of it though. Best Actress is still the most open. I don't think Riva has a hope at the Oscars, it'll be Lawrence or Chastain, but which one is slightly less clear. I still think Jennifer Lawrence should be slight favourite.
Best Picture will be Argo or Lincoln, hopefully the former, but considering its the Academy, it could well be the latter. Les Mis and Life of Pi will split the technical awards (with Anna Karenina possibly grabbing Costume Design) but neither has much of a realistic chance at the main prize. Best Director is anyone's guess.