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Old 11-02-2013, 18:21
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I disagree entirely about Argo as well, best film I've seen this year, and that's coming from a complete Les Mis addict who thought nothing would top that movie. I thought the direction in Argo was wonderful, and it deserves all the accolades it's getting.
Indeed, as Lincoln is defined by it's acting, Argo is defined by it's editing and direction. Which is what makes the oscar snub all the odder. The fact it has won so many films for direction underscores that. It actually would have been more logical for Lincoln not to get a best director nod out of the two, ironically enough....

And the voting for many of the awards it won was done BEFORE the oscar nominations were even announced in any case.

Christoph Waltz may well get Supporting Actor, it's strange how much momentum Tommy Lee Jones has lost in that category. I still don't think he's entirely out of it though.
I think it will go to Waltz. And tbh, i think deservedly, because he almost winds up feeling like the lead actor in Django by virtue of stealing practically every scene he is in. Tommy Lee Jones is very good in Lincoln, but doesn't really make quite the same impact.

Best Actress is still the most open. I don't think Riva has a hope at the Oscars, it'll be Lawrence or Chastain, but which one is slightly less clear. I still think Jennifer Lawrence should be slight favourite.
I tend to think that the oscars will lean towards Riva, for much the same reason they leaned towards Plummer last year....

Best Picture will be Argo or Lincoln, hopefully the former, but considering its the Academy, it could well be the latter.
If Lincoln does win best picture after winning practically nothing outside of lead actor it will have to be another crash scenario, but i don't think it will happen.

Les Mis and Life of Pi will split the technical awards (with Anna Karenina possibly grabbing Costume Design) but neither has much of a realistic chance at the main prize.
I still think Lee has a shot at Best Director, because of the Affleck cleaning up elsewhere, no one really knows how much support Spielberg really has for Lincoln, and given the sheer scale of the challenge Lee faced bring Pi to the screen, that may swing some votes his way.
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