I really wouldn't be suprised but to be honest, 4 of the 5 performances are so different, strong and fantastic that I personally am not fussed on who wins, as long as Chastain doesn't win for her average performance
I would really like Lawerence to win as i found her peformance much more meaningful to me.
Amour is slight being rated as something amazing, but I have seen it and personally found it rather ok. In terms of foreign films, it should of been Rust & Bone stealing all the glory which I found was a much better film with an even better peformance by a lead actress by Marion Cotillad.
I agree with all of this post. Rust & Bone was wonderful and Cotillard's performance deserved at least
Riva was great, but Lawrence should take home the award, imo.