I've got a feeling Chris posts in this very thread... but I'm not going to name him both because I could be wrong and because he's chosen to use another name on here.
I agree with this...! (And don't think it's Ian Dennis!)
In terms of the 5.30 matches, I think there will be more than 23 next season. Talksport are helped in that any big head to heads now before Champions League midweeks will be more likely to air at Sat 17.30 than Sat 12.45 (if they're on Sky - police permitting). So for instance last season Man Utd V Arsenal would have been a Sat 17.30 match instead of Saturday lunchtime. Sat 17.30 is also much better for Sky in terms of ratings/profile so there's a fair chance they'll be more willing to put decent matches in that slot than they were 12.45 (where often they simply had no other option).
The flipside to this is that BT now have 1st pick games (the first time Sky haven't had them) and they only have the 1 weekend slot generally. This means that essentially any first pick BT get is going to be on 5 Live (we suspect the likes of Arsenal V Liverpool and Tottenham V Chelsea.)