I don't understand why some think Sam Bailey can't/won't win

earldbestearldbest Posts: 3,894
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Remember the last commercially problematic act they gave gave repeated standing ovations to? Joe McElderry.
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  • jerefprdterrajerefprdterra Posts: 30,336
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    She should be in with a good chance of winning, but she is unlikely to get the teen vote which as usual will probably go to Nicholas. Shame really.
  • daljuldaljul Posts: 179
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    A couple of weeks ago I asked who people were voting for and what age category they were.

    A great majority voting for Sam B were in their teens & 20's which I found very heartening
  • earldbestearldbest Posts: 3,894
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    She should be in with a good chance of winning, but she is unlikely to get the teen vote which as usual will probably go to Nicholas. Shame really.

    The teen vote seems to be split among the three boys and KR. With KR lasting a month and the other two still standing, Nicholas's supply of hormonal teens is probably not as much as that of Eoghan 5 years ago, as fans of Sam C and Luke (assuming they will exit before the final, which will probably be the case) will probably gravitate to their respective second faves (which differ), if they even continue voting, rather than automatically to Nicky, which would happen if the other Boys were axed really early.
  • jerefprdterrajerefprdterra Posts: 30,336
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    daljul wrote: »
    A couple of weeks ago I asked who people were voting for and what age category they were.

    A great majority voting for Sam B were in their teens & 20's which I found very heartening

    Hope you are right, as its not normally the case with this show.
  • earldbestearldbest Posts: 3,894
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    daljul wrote: »
    A couple of weeks ago I asked who people were voting for and what age category they were.

    A great majority voting for Sam B were in their teens & 20's which I found very heartening

    That's good. The Overs category has been in need of redemption since Steve's fallout, and Sam B's warm presence is the genuine feel good story missing from the last few years.
  • VashettiVashetti Posts: 2,361
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    She should be in with a good chance of winning, but she is unlikely to get the teen vote which as usual will probably go to Nicholas. Shame really.

    No way are teens voting for Nicholas. It's mums and grannies.
  • xTonixxTonix Posts: 56,211
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    Sam B is Shamazing, imo, she is the best over 25 ever, I actually really want her to win, and if she makes the final 3, I will be voting for her.
  • ChelseaaKylexChelseaaKylex Posts: 516
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    I can't see her releasing music tbh...She seems more like a pub singer
  • MatejaMateja Posts: 731
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    I can't see her releasing music tbh...She seems more like a pub singer


    Well I can see her releasing music. Winner's single and debut album, either and album of covers or new, middle-of-the-road adult contemporary songs.

    She won't get radioplay, people will be already over her by the time the album drops. So the album will flop and Simon will drop her like a hot potato and poor woman will be ridiculed just like every other X Factor winner that flopped with his debut album.

    So, to conclude ... I can see her releasing music, but not selling it.
  • AmbassadorAmbassador Posts: 22,332
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    Watch the effortless Celine Dion this evening and then watch the effort and huff and puffing from Bailey to see the difference
  • DaewosDaewos Posts: 8,345
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    daljul wrote: »
    A couple of weeks ago I asked who people were voting for and what age category they were.

    A great majority voting for Sam B were in their teens & 20's which I found very heartening

    Sorry but that is hard to believe to be honest.
  • Nastyman69Nastyman69 Posts: 4,497
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    I think she might win - she does have a huge following but I can't see her having commercial success if I'm honest with you but I might be wrong. If XF came out in the 80s, she would have been pretty big in that particular decade - that I would have been confident in saying
  • mmpfbmmpfb Posts: 14,768
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    Vashetti wrote: »
    No way are teens voting for Nicholas. It's mums and grannies.

    Nicholas has a lot of teen girls cooing over him on twitter.

    'OMG Nicholas McDonald is sooo perfect I love him' etc...

    Besides, I'm voting for him and I don't fit into any of those categories.
  • AcerBenAcerBen Posts: 21,273
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    I'm not sure Joe McElderry was SEEN as "commercially problematic". Didn't Simon repeatedly say he was a popstar.
  • earldbestearldbest Posts: 3,894
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    AcerBen wrote: »
    I'm not sure Joe McElderry was SEEN as "commercially problematic". Didn't Simon repeatedly say he was a popstar.

    Really? :eek: I only remember Lou-Lou's "UK Michael Buble"
  • RichmondBlueRichmondBlue Posts: 21,279
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    Does anyone watch Gogglebox ? If the viewers on that are representitve of the national audience, she has won it already. I think she has appeal across the majority of age groups, apart from the the teeny girl vote.. will that prevent her from winning ? I don't know.
    She is still 6/4 favourite with the bookies, so that's where most of the money is going.
  • valeziovalezio Posts: 1,259
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    I think she will win easily but it makes me sad to say I'm finding her boring now, but that's just me & it doesn't make me happy to say it. I look forward to most of the others because they're unpredictable, apart from Hannah & Tamera. Hannah hurts my ears & Tamera is predictable.
  • SaturnSaturn Posts: 18,971
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    Ambassador wrote: »
    Watch the effortless Celine Dion this evening and then watch the effort and huff and puffing from Bailey to see the difference

    The effortless Celine who didn't sing on Jonathan Ross because she's saving her voice for tonight? :p
  • earldbestearldbest Posts: 3,894
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    Saturn wrote: »
    The effortless Celine who didn't sing on Jonathan Ross because she's saving her voice for tonight? :p

    Isn't her performance pre-recorded?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,795
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    Hope you are right, as its not normally the case with this show.

    True, but I think the older contestants haven't usually been the best on the show, which Sam B definitely is this year.
  • Joe_ZelJoe_Zel Posts: 20,832
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    Ambassador wrote: »
    Watch the effortless Celine Dion this evening and then watch the effort and huff and puffing from Bailey to see the difference

    Well, one's had a career for decades, one has had 5 weeks on the X Factor. She's not going to be perfect.
  • gcmacgcmac Posts: 4,020
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    I think Sam has a good shot at winning this year. A lot of people I've spoken to about x factor are rooting for her and she has been consistently very good. She has to keep the momentum up and possibly pull off a performance which shocks and amazes people the way Little Mix did with ET and Alexandra with Listen.
  • mmpfbmmpfb Posts: 14,768
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    valezio wrote: »
    I think she will win easily but it makes me sad to say I'm finding her boring now, but that's just me & it doesn't make me happy to say it. I look forward to most of the others because they're unpredictable, apart from Hannah & Tamera. Hannah hurts my ears & Tamera is predictable.

    Must say I agree. She seems to be singing at full pelt all the time and I'd prefer her to cut back on the showboating and introduced some dynamics into her performances.
  • achroachro Posts: 3,262
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    I'm in the low 20's and Sam Bailey is my favorite now.

    I never listen to that type of music and would never buy her album.

    But she is a better vocalist and performer than the supposed ones with "star quality" like Tamera.

    I'm sure if you gave her a Rihanna song, she's still work it out better than Tamera and co.
  • hilduffluvahilduffluva Posts: 3,969
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    Sam B might suffer the SuBo effect though...fave to win but could finish 2nd.
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