what happens to Greece if they default and leave the Euro?

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  • MandarkMandark Posts: 47,940
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    With the EU and ECB admitting that its drawing up contingency plans, it looks like Greece will be leaving the Euro zone very soon.
  • allaortaallaorta Posts: 19,050
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    jzee wrote: »
    Saw the lady on This Week last night, have to feel very sorry about this situation, but I feel the Greeks need to confront the fact that their own government lied about the national debt to an extreme extent in order to get them into the Euro, they bear a large part of the responsiblity for the pain the Greeks are suffering and will suffer. They thought they could get away with it, because they thought a crash would never happen on the scale it did, but believing that could never happen is very naive indeed. What occured was fraud or treason on a national scale and the Greek people need to hold to account those people that were involved in it and realise they simply do not belong & cannot function in a currency tied to economies that are so very different to their own.

    On an international scale more like it. The likes of Germany and France would have been well aware that Greek entry to the euro was on a false passport and were therefore complicit. Greece had already failed to adopt the euro in 1999 because they needed to adopt drastic public spending cuts. Yet just two years later, they were able to join the euro on the say so of Goldman Sachs. I can remember at the time it was mooted as being a fiddled entry.
  • jzeejzee Posts: 25,498
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    allaorta wrote: »
    On an international scale more like it. The likes of Germany and France would have been well aware that Greek entry to the euro was on a false passport and were therefore complicit. Greece had already failed to adopt the euro in 1999 because they needed to adopt drastic public spending cuts. Yet just two years later, they were able to join the euro on the say so of Goldman Sachs. I can remember at the time it was mooted as being a fiddled entry.
    Well Gerhard Schroeder says he did not know about any false accounting, I doubt we will hear anything from Chirac on the matter given he seems to have been severely amnesiac at his recent trial.
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    allaorta wrote: »
    I can remember at the time [Greek entry] was mooted as being a fiddled entry.

    And now look what's happened:
    • HM Treasury has said UK economy could contract by 1.9% - worse case scenario
    • Bank of England rumoured to be preparing to print unlimited amounts of new money (QE)
    • Greece exiting the Euro and adopting a new currency could leave banks and government around Europe with debts of several hundred billion euros.
    • Contagion spreading to Spain
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    angel1ka wrote: »
    We won't jump on the first boat offered to us, sorry. It has to be one that can actually carry 11,000,000 people on it. Otherwise, what's the point?

    Yeah I think I got the point, your society is past any help.

    Maybe if your out of the EU we can tax all the rich Greeks here that you couldn't tax. :)
  • NosnikraplNosnikrapl Posts: 2,572
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    allaorta wrote: »
    On an international scale more like it. The likes of Germany and France would have been well aware that Greek entry to the euro was on a false passport and were therefore complicit. Greece had already failed to adopt the euro in 1999 because they needed to adopt drastic public spending cuts. Yet just two years later, they were able to join the euro on the say so of Goldman Sachs. I can remember at the time it was mooted as being a fiddled entry.

    I bet if you dig back you will find the Tory Right saying so - probably John Redwood. They were ridiculed in late 90's/ early 2000's for saying this stuff but just look what happened. There is a speech William Hague gave predicting exactly what happened now. It is eerie exactly how accurate it was. Found out recently written by Osbourne!!!!
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    jzee wrote: »
    Well Gerhard Schroeder says he did not know about any false accounting, I doubt we will hear anything from Chirac on the matter given he seems to have been severely amnesiac at his recent trial.

    Robert Peston actually convinced me now that we are essentially screwed and it's best now to prepare for impact.

    Seems I have to drive up UK operations to compensate for German losses.
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    Robert Peston actually convinced me now that we are essentially screwed and it's best now to prepare for impact..

    What preparation would you advise others to make up ?
  • jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,996
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    Robert Peston actually convinced me now that we are essentially screwed and it's best now to prepare for impact.

    Did he have his tin hat on in his bunker.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    What preparation would you advise others to make up ?
    Who are others?

    Britain is brilliant already with all the business programmes. It educated the masses regarding being inventive and resourceful. :)

    So many people I know here try to make small businesses work.
  • jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,996
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    What preparation would you advise others to make up ?

    Find a bunker.
  • grassmarketgrassmarket Posts: 33,010
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    Yeah I think I got the point, your society is past any help.

    The problem is that all the sensible Greeks have already left to create successful businesses in Britain, the US, Australia etc. They're left with a majority numpty population. It's the world's first fully-fledged ineptocracy.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    jmclaugh wrote: »
    Did he have his tin hat on in his bunker.

    Why, he is right no way in hell will the Southern Cultures get rid of their archaic business structures in time. If we don;t look at a collapse though at minimum a longer downturn.

    I always did best in life with the basic German neurotics of being prepared and having a plan B. :)
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    jmclaugh wrote: »
    Find a bunker.
    • Move your money into different currencies (swiss franc, yen, dollar). Consider buying gold.
    • Be prepared to save money: cancel holidays, no snacks meals or drink out, home cooking with basic fruit and veg, walk/cycle not drive, cancel Sky/Virgin
    • Check what your redundancy package might be
    • Sell anything and everything which you don't use on eBay
    • Follow the news carefully and watch others in case there's another run on the bank - like Northern Rock 2007.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    jmclaugh wrote: »
    Find a bunker.

    Plan C is I have American relatives. Plan Z is to panic. :)
  • jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,996
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    Why, he is right no way in hell will the Southern Cultures get rid of their archaic business structures in time. If we don;t look at a collapse though at minimum a longer downturn.

    I always did best in life with the basic German neurotics of being prepared and having a plan B. :)

    Well it would all have turned out better if they'd listened to those at the time that the Eurozone's plan A, which treated very disparate economies as if they were all the same, would end up in tears. But oh no the grand Euro project must go on and the fact they are still in denial has prolonged the Greek tragedy for years.
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    Plan C is I have American relatives. Plan Z is to panic. :)

    Between plans C and Z, consider plan NZ. It's about as far away from Eurogeddon as you can get.
  • What name??What name?? Posts: 26,623
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    • Move your money into different currencies (swiss franc, yen, dollar). Consider buying gold.
    • Be prepared to save money: cancel holidays, no snacks meals or drink out, home cooking with basic fruit and veg, walk/cycle not drive, cancel Sky/Virgin
    • Check what your redundancy package might be
    • Sell anything and everything which you don't use on eBay
    • Follow the news carefully and watch others in case there's another run on the bank - like Northern Rock 2007.

    Are you related to Frances Maude?
  • What name??What name?? Posts: 26,623
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    angel1ka wrote: »
    We won't jump on the first boat offered to us, sorry. It has to be one that can actually carry 11,000,000 people on it. Otherwise, what's the point?
    Apparently not - even when you are in danger of drowning. What happens if the boat sails without you?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    jmclaugh wrote: »
    Well it would all have turned out better if they'd listened to those at the time that the Eurozone's plan A which treated very disparate economies as if they were all the same would end up in tears. But oh no the grand Euro project must go on and the fact they are still in denial has prolonged the Greek tragedy for years.

    Yeah so what ... shoulda woulda coulda ..

    Britain could have gotten involved and prevented these mistakes instead of moaning from the sideline.

    We all made mistakes and now we have to move forward and deal with the consequences. Whinging about the past doesn't help. See Greece.
  • jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,996
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    Plan C is I have American relatives. Plan Z is to panic. :)

    You can join the queue at Grosvenor Square which will be marshalled by the newly re-formed Dad's Army with Lance Corporal Jones shouting "Don't Panic". :)
  • ThePhotographerThePhotographer Posts: 3,112
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    The Euro should never of happened, but that's to late now.

    I think Greece exiting the Euro will be good. Get it done with, and get any pain out of way with and face it.

    I don't think there will be a collapse of society at all.

    I wont be buying gold and have no intention to.
  • jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,996
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    Yeah so what ... shoulda woulda coulda ..

    Britain could have gotten involved and prevented these mistakes instead of moaning from the sideline.

    We all made mistakes and now we have to move forward and deal with the consequences. Whinging about the past doesn't help. See Greece.

    Most amusing, just shrug it all off and blame it on the UK who should have prevented it all.

    The point is they aren't prepared to move forward they still all want their cake and their halfpenny and won't even admit it was a mistake, if they had they'd have made Greece leave the € quite a while back.
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    The Euro should never of happened, but that's to late now.

    Yes. It a bit too late for that now.
    I think Greece exiting the Euro will be good. Get it done with, and get any pain out of way with and face it.

    Agreed. It will also be interesting to find out how awful it's going to be when a european country adopts a new (and soon to be) worthless currency.
    I don't think there will be a collapse of society at all.

    There may be:
    • panic food buying
    • panic petrol buying
    • bank runs like the British Northern Rock
    • bank collapses like RBS nearly did Oct 2008.
    • companies folding
    • border controls out of Greece
    I wont be buying gold and have no intention to.

    Shame. It's been pretty good investment. 50 years from now, someone is more likely to want your gold than fistful of euros.
  • ThePhotographerThePhotographer Posts: 3,112
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    Yes. It a bit too late for that now.



    Agreed. It will also be interesting to find out how awful it's going to be when a european country adopts a new (and soon to be) worthless currency.



    There may be:
    • panic food buying
    • panic petrol buying
    • bank runs like the British Northern Rock
    • bank collapses like RBS nearly did Oct 2008.
    • companies folding
    • border controls out of Greece


    Shame. It's been pretty good investment. 50 years from now, someone is more likely to want your gold than fistful of euros.

    My arguemnt is that if I buy gold over the weekend and Greece then begins the formalties of the exit of the Euro, and then a run on the banks etc. Then, how does that gold benefit me?
    Does it get delivered to my house?
    Can I use it in a supermarket?
    Can I use it to buy online?
    What about haulage drivers, will they be buying gold and if not who will deliver goods around the country?

    I just do not think there will be some acocolypic scenerio. We shall see though.
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