[jjne]

Originally Posted by Majlis

I'm not sure Labours victory in 1997 was much to do with Black Wednesday. By then the Tories had been in power for 18 years and the Great British Public are a pretty fair bunch and concluded that it was time for a change. Even without BW the Tories would have lost in 97 - they had just been in power for too long.

That might explain a swing -- but 97 was a kicking.

And I refuse to believe that Blair was that much of a draw. He was my constituency MP and he always gave me the willies -- never could quite put my finger on why, but I was proven right.

[Fizzbin]

Originally Posted by jjne

Major is the epitome of a government losing an election.

His government blew it on Black Wednesday and never recovered. Labour could have put a chimp in charge and won 1997.

And guess who was working for the Chancellor on Black Wednesday...

[Auld Snody]

People are just wakening up to what an inept bunch of incompetents this government really are. Cameron cannot go for a major reshuffle as he does not have the talent on the Tory benches. so he is stuck. Labour are not a competent opposition, let alone fit to form a government , so the country is stuck.

[OLD HIPPY GUY]

Originally Posted by ThePhotographer

I can understand frustration of the voter by using polls as a protest device. With high taxation, high borrowing and high public sector spending we are still in a mess and people have less in their wallets to spend in the economy. What we need is to cut public sector spending, cut taxes for business and people, and stop borrowing.

The message is clear to George: Cut taxes and spending!

HAHA "clear" Well yeah I suppose so, IF your idea of "clear" advice, Would have been to advise the captain of the Titanic to poke more holes in his ship.

[ItJustMyOpinion]

Originally Posted by ellenpagerocks

The longer Hunt stays in the cabinet, the worse the ratings will get for the tory's

I don't think the public care about all that stuff. The mistakes the public will not forgive the Tories for, are the financial ones.

[jjne]

Originally Posted by ItJustMyOpinion

I don't think the public care about all that stuff. The mistakes the public will not forgive the Tories for, are the financial ones.

It would be a little silly to transfer your vote to Labour due to the Murdoch enquiry in any case.

I wouldn't relieve myself on Murdoch if he was on fire, but I'm not naive enough to think it makes much difference to the next election.

[sparkie70]

Originally Posted by Biffo the Bear

People are a fickle bunch. I think this poll is more of a reflection of them having being bombarded with Labour leaflets over the last few weeks to remind them about what the Coalition may or may not have done.

After the elections, I would expect the Tories' rating to go into the 30s again. Think of it as the opposite of the 'Cameron bounce' last December.

In reality though, Labour should be streets ahead already. They're not doing it right.

I think Tory HQ should be ressonably happy at this stage if the polls are correct as I suspect if UKIP does well it will be just a protest vote. The problem for the tories is that they want Lib Dems too do better as if they don't recover ground then it will be hard for the tories to win the next general election as it is unlikely as far as the north is concerned highly unlikely they will flock back to the lib dems any time soon.

[Phil 2804]

Originally Posted by Majlis

I'm not sure Labours victory in 1997 was much to do with Black Wednesday. By then the Tories had been in power for 18 years and the Great British Public are a pretty fair bunch and concluded that it was time for a change. Even without BW the Tories would have lost in 97 - they had just been in power for too long.

Forgetting the fact that in summer 1990 Labour had a 30% poll lead over the Tories and between April 1992 and Black Wednesday the Tories led Labour by an average of 8%.

If you look at the polls from that time Black Wednesday is the first big drop that puts Labour ahead, the second is the 1993 budget (you know that one with massive deficit, spending cuts and huge tax rises they said didn't exist and wouldn't happen in 1992). It was the result of those two that Labour surged ahead on the economy question in the polls, as essentially, they were proved right all along.

The third big drop is the election of Tony Blair which sees Labour's poll lead increase from 20% to 30% overnight.

Even then there is a big difference between a Government that has run its course and what happened to the Tories in 1997.

A run of the mill election defeat is similar to what happened to Labour in 2010 or 1979, or indeed 1992 i.e. still winning around 250-270 seats. Enough in most instances to give a real chance of winning the next election.

What happened to the Tories in 1997 has left them permanently weakened. Wiped out in Scotland, which was once a Tory stronghold, wiped out in Wales and wiped out accross almost the whole of urban England. They won 40% of the vote in England in 2010, yet the only major city they won was Portsmouth.

[SULLA]

Originally Posted by husted

This however is where Cameron is under pressure. Cameron is holding together a delicate coalition - I mean of course the Left and Right wings of the Tory party. Gideon's plan has failed and the Right think it's their turn to solve our economic woes with tax cuts for the rich.

So Boris thinks he's found his bandwagon:

Boris Johnson piles more pressure on David Cameron’s Government by launching a fresh offensive over cutting taxes.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...-tax-cuts.html

I liked the bit on George and “the jaws of death”:



Boris isn't really a team player is he

He might be after the election

Originally Posted by Turnbull2000

Hope these supposed Tories get destroyed next week.

They will not be destroyed but a lot of good councillors will lose their seats through no fault of their own

NB. Very high earners are now paying 5% more than they were less than 30 months ago.

[PrincessPerfect]

Not surprised by these figures at all; the worrying thing for the government is that they are caused by the government's incompetance rather than ''cuts''. The government can afford to be unpopular, what it cannot afford to be is incompetant, as well as heartless. The locals will be very interesting, this year.

[Majlis]

Originally Posted by Phil 2804

Even then there is a big difference between a Government that has run its course and what happened to the Tories in 1997.

A run of the mill election defeat is similar to what happened to Labour in 2010 or 1979, or indeed 1992 i.e. still winning around 250-270 seats. Enough in most instances to give a real chance of winning the next election.

What happened to the Tories in 1997 has left them permanently weakened. Wiped out in Scotland, which was once a Tory stronghold, wiped out in Wales and wiped out accross almost the whole of urban England. They won 40% of the vote in England in 2010, yet the only major city they won was Portsmouth.

But you take the wrong inference from the results - yes, the Tories did badly in 1997 but that had very little to do with Black Wednesday. What happened in 97 was that people were tired of them and wanted a change - and it was Labour who, having jettisoned all their previous core values and become yet another centre-right party, provided that change. The Tories have lost ground in Scotland, Wales etc not because the people have tired of centre right policies and ideals, but because Labour are now promoting those same policies and values.

The day Labour decided to become just another Tory party was the day that the Tories were going to start having problems - after 70 years of having the game to themselves, Labour moved their tanks onto the Tory lawn.

[WindWalker]

Originally Posted by Majlis

But you take the wrong inference from the results - yes, the Tories did badly in 1997 but that had very little to do with Black Wednesday. What happened in 97 was that people were tired of them and wanted a change - and it was Labour who, having jettisoned all their previous core values and become yet another centre-right party, provided that change. The Tories have lost ground in Scotland, Wales etc not because the people have tired of centre right policies and ideals, but because Labour are now promoting those same policies and values.

The day Labour decided to become just another Tory party was the day that the Tories were going to start having problems - after 70 years of having the game to themselves, Labour moved their tanks onto the Tory lawn.

Please don't foret the corruption. Brown envelopes, cash for questions, Neil Hamilton, Johnathon Aitken, arms to Iraq, ect...

"Sleaze"

At the 1993 Conservative Party Conference, Major began the "Back to Basics" campaign, which he intended to be about the economy, education, policing, and other such issues, but it was interpreted by many (including Conservative cabinet ministers) as an attempt to revert to the moral and family values that the Conservative Party were often associated with. "Back to Basics", however, became synonymous with scandal, often exposed in lurid and embarrassing detail by tabloid newspapers such as The Sun. In 1992 David Mellor, a cabinet minister, had been exposed as having an extramarital affair, and for accepting hospitality from the daughter of a leading member of the PLO. The wife of the Earl of Caithness committed suicide amongst rumours of the Earl committing adultery. Stephen Milligan was found dead having apparently auto-asphyxiated whilst performing a solitary sex act (his Eastleigh seat was lost in what was to be an ongoing stream of hefty by-election defeats). David Ashby was 'outed' by his wife after sleeping with men. A string of other Conservative MPs, including Alan Amos, Tim Yeo and Michael Brown, were involved in sexual scandals.

More...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Major

And that was just under John Major's reign.

[Majlis]

Originally Posted by WindWalker

Please don't foret the corruption. Brown envelopes, cash for questions, Neil Hamilton, Johnathon Aitken, arms to Iraq, ect...

"Sleaze"

Very true - unfortunately for the electorate the shower that replaced them were even more sleazy.

[Airam]

Originally Posted by Majlis

Very true - unfortunately for the electorate the shower that replaced them were even more sleazy.

Apparently only oily politicians appeal to Middle England.

Maybe the parties should go back to having principles and policies to put before the electorate, rather than targeting one media defined group within the UK and a few marginal constituencies.

[Middleotroad]

Originally Posted by PrincessPerfect

Not surprised by these figures at all; the worrying thing for the government is that they are caused by the government's incompetance rather than ''cuts''. The government can afford to be unpopular, what it cannot afford to be is incompetant, as well as heartless. The locals will be very interesting, this year.

The trend of low approval ratings was caused by government incompetance - low level bungling quite often.

This Murdoch/Hunt fiasco is accompanied by a plummeting of David Cameron's approval ratings. It's more than just incompetance or mismanagement to be (or give the appearance of being) deliberately biased in very high profile decisions where impartiality is of the highest importance.