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what happens to Greece if they default and leave the Euro?


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Old 14-05-2012, 22:38
C19th Fox
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Greece will never be able to pay back its debts and austerity won't change that, it should default and leave the .
Which also puts at risk membership of the EU. This would affect tourism in a big way due to the lower limits for tobacco and alcholol that applies outside the EU as well as the other trade advantages that EU membership brings. The rules of the Eurozone were never designed for a country to leave so it is uncharted territory.
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Old 14-05-2012, 22:54
C19th Fox
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I have nothing against Greeks. I work with them everyday. But until the Greek people admit that the problems they are in are not the fault of bankers, politicians, Germans, Americans or immigrants, but are in fact the logical and predictable consequence of their own behaviour, then there is nothing that anybody else in the world can do to help them.
You cannot lay the entire blame at Greece's door. You obviously have not read this debate or read a wide range of background information available from numerous sources. If you had you would see that your simplistic view is not based on any facts. I am not going to waste my time setting out the factors that led to this as there is no point as you won't read them anyway.
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Old 14-05-2012, 22:55
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If Greece adopts a new currency, who's going to lend them new money ?

One benefit of having their own currency is the government could print new money QE style to cover any shortfall tax revenues.
Which of course the ECB should have the power to do if the system had been set up properly in the first place.
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Old 14-05-2012, 22:59
Reiver97
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Meanwhile...
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Old 14-05-2012, 23:04
C19th Fox
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Let me explain it for you. They came about because politicians the Greek people voted for contracted them. The Greek people demanded that their roads, railways, tramways, airports, sports stadiums, sea ports etc etc be upgraded to west European standards. Their politicians went to the banks and asked for the money. The bankers gave it to them. The people voted for the politicians who had got all this free money for them. They never thought that the money would have to be paid back. They were wrong.
Have you ever been to Greece?

If you had you would know that very few roads are maintained up to European or even British standards. The same applies to airports, and other infrastructure with the possible exception of Athens.
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Old 14-05-2012, 23:06
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Here's a list of the easiest countries in the world to do business in. Denmark ranks 5th, Britain 6th. Greece ranks 101st.
That is not in indication of corruption. It is an indication of a mass of red tape - entirely different things.
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Old 14-05-2012, 23:07
Nick1966
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Yes, she will sink captain, it's a mathematical certainty, and the lifeboats left some time ago with the handful of filthy rich greeks when there was room available for many more.
As the Newsnight reporter just said "only the poor and the dim have any money in Greece now". This is what happened in Argentina in 2001.
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Old 14-05-2012, 23:09
C19th Fox
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Of course you can just carry on selectively reading and listening to those views that confirm your prejudice...it's up to you really, and there is nothing further I really want to say to you on the matter.
I have given up on grassmarket too. He appears to have a very blinkered view of the World.
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Old 14-05-2012, 23:18
C19th Fox
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I think Greece should never have adopted the Euro in the first place, and that was my position at the time too.

As for now...I don't know. I believe that in the case of default it would be in our interests to adopt a new currency, but I don't know enough about economics to have a definite view.
What about the potential risk of ejection from the EU that exit from the Eurozone could potentially mean? That would surely be a bad thing as the tourist market would be hit even with a much devalued currency.
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Old 14-05-2012, 23:56
mRebel
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Don;t think I ever quoted that? I always heard about tax not being paid by all or in a very messy fashion, falsified state statistics etc. One reason that the Euro people seemingly were pissed off about was that they were lied to. Hence the move towards more control and closed bank accounts.

Maybe there is a lack of understanding from the Euro position but also an lack of understanding the other way round. If you lie to people, or even if they only see it as lies, whatever happens they gonna be pissed off.

I don't think the Syriza guy is very good either at solving not the theoretical problem but the practical problem for his country.

I mean this
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Greeces-Odio.../dp/0857287710
is all nice and well if you are the USA or Ecuador with no Euro attached.

Totally like the idea as it would control credit sharks and improper lending but in the real world where Greece is now week, I am not sure if that;s practical,
What's being done isn't practical, forcing Greece into an endless decline. The proposals of Syriza are practical, and fairer.
I expect there was some economy with the truth concerning the Greek economy prior to the start of the Euro, but this was true of several countries, and was tolerated as the Euro was a political project. As to Greece not obeying the fiscal and budget rules of the Euro, the first countries to break said rules were France and Germany. But they were excused punishment, unlike Greece.
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:08
mRebel
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I have nothing against Greeks. I work with them everyday. But until the Greek people admit that the problems they are in are not the fault of bankers, politicians, Germans, Americans or immigrants, but are in fact the logical and predictable consequence of their own behaviour, then there is nothing that anybody else in the world can do to help them.
Then how come banks didn't predict it, and stop ending them money many years ago?
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:12
allaorta
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Thats an old one and has been addressed so many times. Goldman Sachs helped Greece cook the books for a stonking fee and the Eurozone did not undertake due dilligence to test the figures. Fault on both sides. Responsibility on both sides. This is why a freeze on the bailout memorandum and austerity seems the only fair course of action to allow Greece the time to address the issues that have been identified as contributing to this.
I know it's an old one but at the end of the day, the Eurozone nations had the responsibility of diligence. I think I may not be alone in thinking that the Eurozone were well aware of the fiddled presentation by Goldman Sachs.
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:12
mRebel
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The entire Syriza party, and all their voters, are behaving like spoilt children. You cannot expect to repudiate your debts and continue to enjoy all the benefits of Euro membership. When you show yourself to be an irresponsible debtor, you can't expect people to lend you more money. They are simply lying to the voters if they think their actions are going to be consequence-free. They complain about austerity, but their own actions risk creating a degree of austerity far more abrupt and miserable than anything the previous government agreed to.
The irresponsible lenders, banks of the Eurozone, UK and US, have had more money lent to them, by the ECB. A trillion euros, no less, at 1% interest, with no conditions attached, so expect bankers pay to rocket. And the amount lent to banks far exceeds that lent to Greece.
A slight double standard, don't you think?
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:12
Meilie
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That is not in indication of corruption. It is an indication of a mass of red tape - entirely different things.
Ask yourself why so much red tape exists. It exists because each hurdle is an opportunity to extract more money from anyone wanting to do business in the country. Plus, red tape creates public sector jobs. It's just a more subtle form of corruption. Put a load of fastidious obstacles in the way. Assign members of your family to deal with each stage of the process. Loads o' money.

This guy was required to submit lung X-rays and stool samples before being allowed to set up an olive business.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/19/wo...pagewanted=all
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:15
mRebel
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What about the potential risk of ejection from the EU that exit from the Eurozone could potentially mean? That would surely be a bad thing as the tourist market would be hit even with a much devalued currency.
Greek tourism would benefit, as it would be very cheap, without hotels having to lower prices, the exchange rate would do that.
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:21
allaorta
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The irresponsible lenders, banks of the Eurozone, UK and US, have had more money lent to them, by the ECB. A trillion euros, no less, at 1% interest, with no conditions attached, so expect bankers pay to rocket. And the amount lent to banks far exceeds that lent to Greece.
A slight double standard, don't you think?
If you look at the timing of the ECB loans to EU banks, it was substantially only after the Greek situation had been "resolved". Prior to that, the Merkozy duo had been pressuring the ECB who wouldn't play ball until they could see a light at the end of the Greek tunnel. The banks most needful of the ECB facilities were those who were in the deepest shyte having bought Greek, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds, which just happened to be substantially French and German banks; in the case of the French banks, they'd also come a cropper in the Spanish mortgage markets.
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:29
Doc Shmok
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The irresponsible lenders, banks of the Eurozone, UK and US, have had more money lent to them, by the ECB. A trillion euros, no less, at 1% interest, with no conditions attached, so expect bankers pay to rocket. And the amount lent to banks far exceeds that lent to Greece.
A slight double standard, don't you think?
How do we get a society that is not dependent on banks? No business can operate these days without being owned by the bank, most houses are owned by the banks, most cars are owned by the bank.

Only if every person tries to minimise banking involvement in their private lives we can somehow pull that back. All I own is mine besides my business. How to get there off the banking addiction I have no idea since I live with credits taken before my time.

In the end most people are somehow owned by the banks and that's why we are all to cowardly to really change anything as our spoilt arses living standard would drop.

So yeah plenty of double standards.
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:35
Doc Shmok
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Anyway, angel1ka I commend your bravery for sticking up for your country. I hope your personal life won't be affected by all this too much.

I will make my slightly less ignorant cross next year somewhere in the German election .. I wish you all the best!
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:38
Doc Shmok
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If you look at the timing of the ECB loans to EU banks, it was substantially only after the Greek situation had been "resolved". Prior to that, the Merkozy duo had been pressuring the ECB who wouldn't play ball until they could see a light at the end of the Greek tunnel. The banks most needful of the ECB facilities were those who were in the deepest shyte having bought Greek, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds, which just happened to be substantially French and German banks; in the case of the French banks, they'd also come a cropper in the Spanish mortgage markets.
I heard a program yesterday where some investment fond guy was quoted that they don't invest in bonds anymore. Good to know the bankers are gonna do their bit for the cause.
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:43
C19th Fox
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Some interesting insight on the BBC for those who have not seen it What the economists predict if Greece defaults and a very interesting blog from Robert Peston in particular the effects of the flight of capital to German Banks and the possible losses to those Banks and thus the Bundesbank of Greece and other countries being forced out of the Eurozone.

It does not make palatable reading to my eyes and probably less so to our German friends and may well be concentrating a few minds on how to prevent transactions intended to save potential losses to Greek Companies and rich individuals (the only ones who would be able to transfer their savings to German Banks) turning into huge losses in Germany. The only way to avoid this (if Greece does eventually elect an anti memorandum Government is to negotiate to keep Greece in the Eurozone). Not to do so would be electoral suicide for Mrs Merkel. A potential 644Bn hit to the Bundesbank makes the Greek debt look like small change.
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Old 15-05-2012, 00:55
C19th Fox
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Greek tourism would benefit, as it would be very cheap, without hotels having to lower prices, the exchange rate would do that.
Prices are one thing, but tobacco is another. It's no secret that a lot go to Greece for cheap ciggies as well as holidays in the sun. It never ceases to surprise me just how many do light up when they get of a plane. Far more than light up before they get on it!

Ciggies that are made in the UK and ciggies that Greeks don't smoke. If Greece were not in the EU the limits would be slashed to 200. Whilst Greece has many other attractions, it would be more advantageous to the tourist industry for Greece to stay in the EU regardless of what currency they have. Leaving the EU would make things that much harder.
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Old 15-05-2012, 01:43
Relugus
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Apparently alot of the Golden Dawn's voters are policemen. That's a pretty powerful and potentially dangerous power base.

Merkel, while demanding austerity, also demanded that Greece continue its absurd millitary spending, which basically means she demanded Greece give German defence contractors welfare handouts while demanding the poor be stripped of theirs.

Hank Paulson
Tim Geithner
Mario Draghi
Mario Monti
Lucas Papademos

All these men pretended or pretend to work for taxpayers but in fact work for Goldman Sachs. It should be noted that Draghi, along with King and Bernanke, has been handing out welfare to bankers like candy, while preaching austerity to the rest of us.
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Old 15-05-2012, 02:09
Doc Shmok
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Some interesting insight on the BBC for those who have not seen it What the economists predict if Greece defaults and a very interesting blog from Robert Peston in particular the effects of the flight of capital to German Banks and the possible losses to those Banks and thus the Bundesbank of Greece and other countries being forced out of the Eurozone.

It does not make palatable reading to my eyes and probably less so to our German friends and may well be concentrating a few minds on how to prevent transactions intended to save potential losses to Greek Companies and rich individuals (the only ones who would be able to transfer their savings to German Banks) turning into huge losses in Germany. The only way to avoid this (if Greece does eventually elect an anti memorandum Government is to negotiate to keep Greece in the Eurozone). Not to do so would be electoral suicide for Mrs Merkel. A potential 644Bn hit to the Bundesbank makes the Greek debt look like small change.
There has been so much shoulda woulda coulda. The usual doom mongering creates a self fulfilling prophecy. First they tell us wealth for everybody is possible now that we are doomed.

The markets and their interpreters can't be trusted hence we need to shut them down to worthwhile trade. Commodities and then no commodity trades that are just speculation. Hedge funds that gamble against countries need to be criminalised and the people involved locked up. Goldmann Sachs and similar need to be dissolved.
Rating agencies need to be controlled.

Trade in real values. Democracies can only really operate if they are not changed around by what is essentially glorified bookies and their punters. And bookies and punters that fix the games they bet on.

But in the real world in the moment, I guess we have to vote for stability now until we can get them.
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Old 15-05-2012, 06:00
Parthenon
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Have to say this thread has been quite eye-opening as I didn't know much about the behaviour of the Greek politicians in the run up to this mess.

It seems certain that it would be the best thing for the Greek people if the country defaulted. Bad for the EU (mainly Germany/France) but it's probably time the Euro was abandoned to save things getting even worse.
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Old 15-05-2012, 09:16
allaorta
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Some interesting insight on the BBC for those who have not seen it What the economists predict if Greece defaults and a very interesting blog from Robert Peston in particular the effects of the flight of capital to German Banks and the possible losses to those Banks and thus the Bundesbank of Greece and other countries being forced out of the Eurozone.

It does not make palatable reading to my eyes and probably less so to our German friends and may well be concentrating a few minds on how to prevent transactions intended to save potential losses to Greek Companies and rich individuals (the only ones who would be able to transfer their savings to German Banks) turning into huge losses in Germany. The only way to avoid this (if Greece does eventually elect an anti memorandum Government is to negotiate to keep Greece in the Eurozone). Not to do so would be electoral suicide for Mrs Merkel. A potential 644Bn hit to the Bundesbank makes the Greek debt look like small change.
I've said more than once on here, it isn't about saving Greece but about saving the arses of the Merkels and Sarkozys of this world. And could you refrain from mentioning Robert Peston, the man's a first water idiot who should know that money is now flying to the dollar and even into sterling.
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