[k0213818]

Originally Posted by yohinnchild

Oh I think Chris will stay - however seeing as its so close and the odds were dramatically wrong last week I dont think you can hold to much with them

Victoria did shorten a lot during the eviction show mind you, that for me was the clue she was going.

Update:
Chris: 1.9
Arron: 1.93

I think we know what this means...

[Jon1141]

Originally Posted by yohinnchild

Oh I think Chris will stay - however seeing as its so close and the odds were dramatically wrong last week I dont think you can hold to much with them

But some one must know something to make Arron go odds on tonight.

[yohinnchild]

Chris 1.88
Arron 1.85

[yohinnchild]

Originally Posted by Jon1141

They were way out last week I agree but there were no last minute drop on Victoria as every one expected Lydia to go.
But some one must know something to make Arron go odds on tonight.

I won money on Victoria being evicted last week

Arron is now 2
Chris 1.93

[k0213818]

Originally Posted by yohinnchild

I won money on Victoria being evicted last week

Arron is now 2
Chris 1.93

Chris: 1.82
Arron: 2.02

Bye Chris

[Jaymitch1]

Originally Posted by k0213818

Chris: 1.82
Arron: 2.02

Bye Chris

Very close is it not ?

[Jon1141]

Originally Posted by Jaymitch1

Very close is it not ?

1% innit.

[k0213818]

Originally Posted by Jaymitch1

Very close is it not ?

It's the drop prior to the voting just closing that made me think that. however the odds closed with the two absolutely dead even in the odds, which I believe has only happened once before with Science vs Maxwell.

[bigBro2011]

the only thing that will change the odds at this stage is money FACT

nobody is running scared , they are balancing their books


i know its more exciting to believe they are privy to info or that they know something but its not the case im afraid


as i posted i bet on arron to go @5/4 because i believe it was a 50/50 situation so the 25% edge i believed was up for grabs , i dont mind being wrong because in the long run the 5/4 was too big IMO and its profitable over a large sample so win or lose today means little , the ONLY goals is to place a wager at a greater price than you believe is the true reality of the event happening , the bookmakers are just offering prices that they believe people will play at simple really

you can make money NOW boylesport offer 6/5 on arron coral offering 11/10 on chris BACK THEM BOTH TO LEVEL STAKES NOW


AGAIN FORGET BETFAIR PRICES PEOPLE

[Verence]

Originally Posted by bigBro2011

the only thing that will change the odds at this stage is money FACT

nobody is running scared , they are balancing their books


i know its more exciting to believe they are privy to info or that they know something but its not the case im afraid


as i posted i bet on arron to go @5/4 because i believe it was a 50/50 situation so the 25% edge i believed was up for grabs , i dont mind being wrong because in the long run the 5/4 was too big IMO and its profitable over a large sample so win or lose today means little , the ONLY goals is to place a wager at a greater price than you believe is the true reality of the event happening , the bookmakers are just offering prices that they believe people will play at simple really

you can make money NOW boylesport offer 6/5 on arron coral offering 11/10 on chris BACK THEM BOTH TO LEVEL STAKES NOW

In English???

[bigBro2011]

Originally Posted by Verence

In English???

what part is confusing you my friend?

[docman]

Originally Posted by bigBro2011

what part is confusing you my friend?

All of it

[Verence]

Originally Posted by bigBro2011

what part is confusing you my friend?

as i posted i bet on arron to go @5/4 because i believe it was a 50/50 situation so the 25% edge i believed was up for grabs , i dont mind being wrong

Does that mean that although you put money on Arron to go you think he's staying???

[Romola_Des_Loup]

Originally Posted by bigBro2011

my old man always said the last race of the meeting was his favorite due to people in general betting more due to the amount of drink consumed but more important were those who chased their losses , it made pricing up the market so easy and it was not uncommon to have a +60% mark up on the race lol

The other thing about the last race is that those who have won earlier in the day will also bet big on the last race. People into gambling (as opposed to 'professional' gamblers) are not properly satisfied until they have re-invested their winnings. They don't just chase their losses, they do their best to blow in their winnings as well.

[bigBro2011]

Originally Posted by docman

All of it

ok , i must remember this is alien to some people

first the bet -

£100 @6/5 returns 220
£100 @11/10 returns 210

outlay £200 return 5% - 10% GUARANTEED


RE betting in general for long term profit

The only way to win long term is by betting at odds larger than the true price of the event happening its what is nown as value betting.

the reason it is long term is because of variance of the probability

for example we have a 50/50 chance of winning a event if we had 0 edge i.e we have a 0 expectation we should always look at the likely hood of a winning/losing sequence

in the long run we would win half the time but variance means that we would not likely have 1 winner then a loser then a winner etc etc

it is to be expected that we will have a losing sequence of 8 over a large sample size.

for for instance we price up a event as the following

eve money the pair

the prices offered are 5/4 and 8/11

the value bet is of course the 5/4 shot BUT remember the true probability is still 50/50

it is very probable that over a small sample of say 15 bets we could still be losing even tho our edge remains

its only over a large sample (500+) that we really see out edge come to fruition


thats a very simple way of explaining why a bookmaker makes money and its the only way a player can gain a edge .

hope that helps?

[k0213818]

Winners Odds post Chris' eviction:

Shievonne: 9.8
Caroline: 11
Luke A: 11
Adam: 12.5
Luke S: 12.5
Becky: 13.5
Lauren: 15
Sara: 16.5
Conor: 16.5
Scott: 17
Arron: 19
Benedict: 21
Ashleigh: 22
Lydia: 46
Deana: 46

[bigBro2011]

Originally Posted by Verence

as i posted i bet on arron to go @5/4 because i believe it was a 50/50 situation so the 25% edge i believed was up for grabs , i dont mind being wrong

Does that mean that although you put money on Arron to go you think he's staying???

as i posted above it means i wouldnt be shocked by either of them winning this singular event because i had it as a straight match (even money the pair) i am happy which ever way it turned out as i strongly believe i priced it correct so the 5/4 is a good bet win lose or draw

my portfolio is in profit because i was lucky enough to be on the nice side of variance by a long way , this bet went down is what is called a correction , when the numbers start to meet the expectation effectively we would strive for a 20% return on a given event

my book is +124% even after the losing bet on chris so realistically i expect to place a few more losing bet this series UNLESS i run hot (over expectation)

hope that helps

[bigBro2011]

ok i think that we will now star to see the game starts......

as i posted on this thread earlier i would wait to place my outright win bets on luke a and lauren because their prices was too short 16/1 on lauren and 10/1 on luke a , using 40% (20% each) of my profits

all that will leave me is a few eviction wagers to consider along the way or just bail with the outright win bets and bank profits

amazed a Shievonne price TBH i posted about sara also , the drift on Benedict i also mentioned happened to a larger extent than i thought but it was a huge lay as posted

i predict a BIG shift in the attitude of the house and strong groups forming , luke a and lauren will start to get more air time as they start to realize its GAME TIME

well thats about it from me this year , will pop in from time to time when i can so until next series i wish everyone good luck with their wagers and hope you all enjoy the series

its been fun.......

[Verence]

Betfair

Caroline 8.6 or 15/2
Shievonne 10.5 or 9.5/1
Adam 11 or 10/1
Luke A 11 or 10/1
Luke 13 or 12/1
Lauren 15 or 14/1
Becky 15.5 or 14.5/1
Conor 17 or 16/1
Sara 17.5 or 16.5/1
Scott 17.5 or 16.5/1
Arron 20 or 19/1
Benedict 23 or 22/1
Ashleigh 26 or 25/1
Deana 44 or 43/1
Lydia 50 or 49/1

[yohinnchild]

Betfair

Caroline - 9.4 (17/2)
Shievonne - 10 (9/1)
Adam - 11 (10/1)
Luke A - 11 (10/1)
Luke S - 11 (10/1)
Lauren - 14 (13/1)
Becky - 15.5 (14.5/1)
Conor - 16.5 (15.5/1)
Sara - 17 (16/1)
Scott - 17.5 (16.5/1)
Arron - 19 (18/1)
Benedict - 22 (21/1)
Ashleigh - 28 (27/1)
Deana - 42 (41/1)
Lydia - 50 (49/1)

[yohinnchild]

Betfair

Caroline - 9.6 (17/2)
Shievonne - 10.5 (9.5/1)
Adam - 11 (10/1)
Luke A - 11 (10/1)
Luke S - 11 (10/1)
Lauren - 14 (13/1)
Conor - 16.5 (15.5/1)
Sara - 16.5 (15.5/1)
Arron - 17.5 (16.5/1)
Scott - 18 (17/1)
Benedict - 18 (17/1)
Becky - 24 (23/1)
Ashleigh - 28 (27/1)
Lydia - 48 (47/1)
Deana - 50 (49/1)

Rebecca's odds are plummeting

[DUNDEEBOY]

I do believe this might be the most open bb we have ever had. The two market leaders are astonishly bad value

[yohinnchild]

Originally Posted by DUNDEEBOY

I do believe this might be the most open bb we have ever had. The two market leaders are astonishly bad value

I agree - it seems to be anyones at the moment... but really is possibly reflecting the fact that no one has probably betted on BB at all

Mind you BB6 was a bit like that - Kemal was favourite to win at one point for no real reason other than the others were just so long and there was no real favourite (I think that was the 1st couple of weeks before Makosi fever hit the nation and quickly died).

BBCH was like this too - it was so open all the time that it may well be an up to the last minute win type thing

[Verence]

Originally Posted by yohinnchild

Betfair


Becky - 24 (23/1)


Rebecca's odds are plummeting

Probably cos not much money is going on her on the assumption that she will be up this week and out on Friday

[IanT88]

Originally Posted by yohinnchild

Mind you BB6 was a bit like that - Kemal was favourite to win at one point for no real reason other than the others were just so long and there was no real favourite (I think that was the 1st couple of weeks before Makosi fever hit the nation and quickly died).

I thought Maxwell was the early favorite?