[jcafcw]

The piece is all very well but can they really forecast what is going to happen until 2061?

Can they be that sure and what if something happens to change this?

Are they just softening us up for cuts in the short term? Or tax rises maybe?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...responsibility

[spiney2]

... that the population is aging is well known. obviously it can be predicted well in advance ......

...... unfortunately under the tories britain went on a spending spree and did not invest.

privatising everything - which hugely increases costs - doesnt help either.

[MARTYM8]

Well the point is if we cannot balance the books now when we have 5 workers for every pensioner (and most pensioners own their home so don't need housing benefit) how are we going to cope in 20 years when we may have only 3 or even 2 workers per pensioner (and many pensioners due to the housing market may still be renting).

Don't know what the solution is - but tough choices await.

[spiney2]

the destruction of pensions - by companies seeking "magic profits" - has added to the problems.

this has not suddenly happened. it has been well known for a long time !

destroying pensions, and privatising healthcare so everything costs at least twice as much, is not a good idea.

[Nick1966]

The decades of austerity are already underway.

For instance, Dorset County Council now spends 44% of its annual budget on adult care looking after the elderly. My own local council spends about 35% of its annual budget on adult care.

Over time, expect other local councils finding themselves with a similar financial burden.

So now you know where your council tax goes: not so much on rubbish collection, more on helping those too old to clothe, wash and feed themselves.

And for younger taxpayers on this forum, in about 30 years' time, it'll be your turn to foot the bills for my own adult care.

[heskethbang]

Originally Posted by Nick1966

The decades of austerity are already underway.

For instance, Dorset County Council now spends 44% of its annual budget on adult care looking after the elderly. My own local council spends about 35% of its annual budget on adult care.

Over time, expect other local councils finding themselves with a similar financial burden.

So now you know where your council tax goes: not so much on rubbish collection, more on helping those too old to clothe, wash and feed themselves.

And for younger taxpayers on this forum, in about 30 years' time, it'll be your turn to foot the bills for my own adult care.

Unless you've managed to make provision for your own care - which is not always easy particularly in these lean times.

[ecco66]

Originally Posted by Nick1966

The decades of austerity are already underway.

For instance, Dorset County Council now spends 44% of its annual budget on adult care looking after the elderly. My own local council spends about 35% of its annual budget on adult care.

Over time, expect other local councils finding themselves with a similar financial burden.

So now you know where your council tax goes: not so much on rubbish collection, more on helping those too old to clothe, wash and feed themselves.

And for younger taxpayers on this forum, in about 30 years' time, it'll be your turn to foot the bills for my own adult care.

I doubt you will need care Nick, you'll still be robust from all that cycling

[GreatGodPan]

Originally Posted by heskethbang

Unless you've managed to make provision for your own care - which is not always easy particularly in these lean times.

Presently with nursing care this works out between £30 - £45k p.a.

[Nick1966]

Originally Posted by heskethbang

Unless you've managed to make provision for your own care - which is not always easy particularly in these lean times.

Exactly.

I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen when I am too old to care for myself. And it will happen. And my own circumstances are repeated up and down the country.

All I can do is save money for this eventuality. And hope the State might help. Assuming there is a welfare system in 2045.

We all face bleak prospects. All of us.

[Nick1966]

Originally Posted by ecco66

I doubt you will need care Nick, you'll still be robust from all that cycling

Absolutely.

Last night, I saw a health poster advertising that regular cycling takes 10 years off your age. So, I am 35 really.

Nick1976

[jmclaugh]

Robert Chote of the OBR was interviewed on Newsnight and he openly admitted forecasting this far ahead is very tricky indeed but the key point he made was demographic changes due to people living longer are much more certain than other areas. Austerity is really the wrong word for it as the demographic changes will happen even if the credit crunch, the sovereign debt crisis, slow economic growth etc etc hadn't.

There is no way the economy is going to grow sufficiently to somehow pay for the increasing social costs these demographic changes will result in so there will have to be some very tough choices on taxation, spending and pensions.

[onefineday]

Originally Posted by MARTYM8

Don't know what the solution is - but tough choices await.

In the words of Martin Amis, "a booth on every corner where you could get a Martini and a medal."

[BomoLad]

Long term economic predictions are as useful as writing down various possible scenarios onto small bits of paper, folding them up and drawing one randomly from a large bowler hat.

[ecco66]

Originally Posted by Nick1966

Absolutely.

Last night, I saw a health poster advertising that regular cycling takes 10 years off your age. So, I am 35 really.

Nick1976

Now that's the sort of regression I could live with

[Nick1966]

Originally Posted by BomoLad

Long term economic predictions are as useful as writing down various possible scenarios onto small bits of paper, folding them up and drawing one randomly from a large bowler hat.

Indeed.

One thing is for sure. Almost everyone on this forum will reach a point when they will need someone to clothe, feed and wash us.

And that costs money.

[trevgo]

I don't see the problem. That nice Mr Balls says all we need to do is borrow more.

[Tassium]

Only dimwits and the deluded claim to be able to predict the future.

These people are often self-publicists out to further their own career by making outlandish statements.

If anyone believes this kind of 'end of the world' nonsense they reveal:

a) gullibility
b) lack of imagination

[Nick1966]

Originally Posted by trevgo

I don't see the problem. That nice Mr Balls says all we need to do is borrow more.

I'm happy with my adult care package c2045 to be funded from additional government borrowing. I'll be too old to care. And in any case, as yet unborn taxpayers can pay the money back.

[Annsyre]

Originally Posted by Nick1966

Exactly.

I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen when I am too old to care for myself. And it will happen. And my own circumstances are repeated up and down the country.

All I can do is save money for this eventuality. And hope the State might help. Assuming there is a welfare system in 2045.

We all face bleak prospects. All of us.

Apparently there are new about 1 million people over the age of 80 now and by 2030 the figure will be 8 milion and rising.

[Tassium]

These "predictions" are straight line extrapolations. Meaningless.

[jmclaugh]

Originally Posted by Nick1966

I'm happy with my adult care package c2045 to be funded from additional government borrowing. I'll be too old to care. And in any case, as yet unborn taxpayers can pay the money back.

Sounds fine but the problem is they almost certainly won't find anyone to borrow it from by then.

[Turnbull2000]

And in case anyone missed it, the 'solution' is a continuation of the current net immigration rates 1 million more people every four years. The left-leaning Indy has reacted to this prospect in almost celebratory fashion.

With only 100,000 homes being built each year and set to remain this low for many years yet, the housing crisis is set to get much, much worse (unless you're a landlord of course!).

[Nick1966]

Originally Posted by Turnbull2000

And in case anyone missed it, the 'solution' is a continuation of the current net immigration rates 1 million more people every four years. The left-leaning Indy has reacted to this prospect in almost celebratory fashion.

Seems reasonable. 1 million immigrants sound like prospective taxpayers to me. They can pay my adult social care package in a few decades' time.

[jmclaugh]

Originally Posted by Turnbull2000

And in case anyone missed it, the 'solution' is a continuation of the current net immigration rates 1 million more people every four years. The left-leaning Indy has reacted to this prospect in almost celebratory fashion.

With only 100,000 homes being built each year and set to remain this low for many years yet, the housing crisis is set to get much, much worse (unless you're a landlord of course!).

It is such a comfort that a long term problem has such an easy short term fix, basically we can shag our way out of it.

[Turnbull2000]

Originally Posted by Nick1966

Seems reasonable. 1 million immigrants sound like prospective taxpayers to me. They can pay my adult social care package in a few decades' time.

Who pays for the social care of the immigrants, who'll be in even great numbers in old age? Even more immigrants? And where do they all live?