Share of the vote predictions..
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Conservative 35%
Labour 29%
Lib Dems 27%
Others 9%
Thats my prediction based on the Conservatives giving ground to Lib Dems after their surge in popularity following the first TV debate. The impact of tactical voting and the youth vote going to the Lib Dems in marginals will deprive the Tories of a greater percentage.
Labour will be 6% behind the Tories, mainly because of peoples instinctive fear of change and Brown's more passionate speeches since Sunday will result in just enough extra votes to save them from coming third.
Lib Dems slipping slightly as people begin to realise Lib Dem policies aren't so credible and were committed to print at a time when the Lib Dems didn't realise such attention would result increased scrutiny. People have just started to find Clegg annoying, repetative and slightly arrogant of late. Tactical voting to keep the Tories out, especially in marginals and the youth vote will still give them their best performance for a long, long time.
On the subject of predictions, I believe this will result in a Lab / Lib coalition that will prove unsuccessful over the summer. A Labour leadership campaign and a difficult relationship will prove too much. This will prove a turn-off for typical voters for each party.
Expect another General Election in September / October, where the split will be more like,
Conservative 38%
Labour 26%
Lib Dems 23%
Others 13%
Leaving the Tories with a workable majority.
Labour 29%
Lib Dems 27%
Others 9%
Thats my prediction based on the Conservatives giving ground to Lib Dems after their surge in popularity following the first TV debate. The impact of tactical voting and the youth vote going to the Lib Dems in marginals will deprive the Tories of a greater percentage.
Labour will be 6% behind the Tories, mainly because of peoples instinctive fear of change and Brown's more passionate speeches since Sunday will result in just enough extra votes to save them from coming third.
Lib Dems slipping slightly as people begin to realise Lib Dem policies aren't so credible and were committed to print at a time when the Lib Dems didn't realise such attention would result increased scrutiny. People have just started to find Clegg annoying, repetative and slightly arrogant of late. Tactical voting to keep the Tories out, especially in marginals and the youth vote will still give them their best performance for a long, long time.
On the subject of predictions, I believe this will result in a Lab / Lib coalition that will prove unsuccessful over the summer. A Labour leadership campaign and a difficult relationship will prove too much. This will prove a turn-off for typical voters for each party.
Expect another General Election in September / October, where the split will be more like,
Conservative 38%
Labour 26%
Lib Dems 23%
Others 13%
Leaving the Tories with a workable majority.
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Comments
Labour 32%
Lib Dem 25%
Other 9%
Turn out: 68.4%
I think that's wishful thinking from some.
As I've said repeatedly, the fact that the 'safe hands' option has been dismissed when there are so many last minute voters who usually do break for the party in power, is astonishing.
It seems to be an election where we're ignoring the fact that 35% of the elctorate haven't yet made up their minds and assume their final decision will have absolutely no bearing on the result at all.
I think Labour will be at least 4% behind the Tories, but more like 6%.
Labour - 29%
Liberal Democrats - 26%
Other - 9%
Or lose the tories some votes, the sun frontpage is beyond a joke if I was Obama I'd be taking The Sun to court
Labour 29%
LibDems 28%
...
BNP 3%
Turn-out 66%
Labour - 29%
Lib Dem - 27%
Other - 6%
Turnout - 72.41%
Labour: 29.2% (248 Seats)
Lib Dems: 28.7% (80 Seats)
Others: 3.9% (27 Seats)
Turnout: 70%
Until last Tuesday I'd have agreed, but Brown held his nerve in the final debate more than people expected, despite low expectations. Just as Brown found his passion, Clegg found himself short on commitment at the Methodist Hall meeting and quite a few people are starting to see through his 'look at the children in the two old parties squabbling' routine.
My guess is
Con 36%
Lib Dem 29%
Labour 27%
Tories just short of a majority - and do a deal with the DUP. Really the worst possible scenario - to have to rely on Ulster parties.
Lab 28%
Lib 28%
Others 9%
Using the BBC Seat Calculator that would give
Con 278
Lab 261
Lib 82
Others 29
However, here in Scotland, most people I've spoken to will vote Labour.
Even die hard SNPs have decided to vote Labour this time.
South of Durham, it will be Conservative & Lib/ Dem
Lab 29%
Lib 25%
labour - 33% - 322 seats
lib-dems - 27% - 78 seats
others - 7% - 29 seats
using bbc seat calculator