Is Crime Really Falling?

[Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 4,910
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We keep hearing about how year on year crime is falling. If i'm totally honest i have doubts over this. What i suspect is more likely is that firstly a lot of crime goes unreported because people don't believe the police will do anything about it so they don't bother reporting it. Secondly when they do report it the police probably don't take a lot of the more petty crimes all that seriously. Thirdly there will always be a certain amount of unknown and undetected crime.

So this claim that crime is falling. Do i believe it? I am dubious to the extreme. Do you believe it?
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  • HypnodiscHypnodisc Posts: 22,728
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    Yes and no.

    Recorded crime is certainly falling - and more serious crimes are those more likely to be reported. I have no doubt that you're far less likely to be assaulted or burgled than many years ago. People seem to have this somewhat 'idylic' image of the past but if you face facts, crime was undoubtedly higher.

    Some minor crime isn't really falling - the thing I have in mind is drug dealing and using, particularly the use and sale of soft drugs.. but there isn't much that can be done about that short of legalising.. and many would argue that this isn't a measure of crime and doesn't matter.

    TV Licence evasion, for example, is also at a record high, but I'm not too worried about that.

    I'm pretty sure white-collar crime such as fraud tends to go up year on year as well.
  • walterwhitewalterwhite Posts: 56,564
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    Recorded crime is falling yes, that includes murder, a crime which I suspect most people will agree is normally reported.
  • afcbfanafcbfan Posts: 7,153
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    There's a theory that the removal of lead from petrol has something to do with the fall in crime rates: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27067615
  • SJ_MentalSJ_Mental Posts: 16,138
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    It's just political bullet points, Like falling unemployment meaning more people working, When it actually means less people claiming qualifying benefits that count towards the way unemployment is measured.
  • zx50zx50 Posts: 91,231
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    Hypnodisc wrote: »
    Yes and no.

    Recorded crime is certainly falling - and more serious crimes are those more likely to be reported. I have no doubt that you're far less likely to be assaulted or burgled than many years ago. People seem to have this somewhat 'idylic' image of the past but if you face facts, crime was undoubtedly higher.

    Some minor crime isn't really falling - the thing I have in mind is drug dealing and using, particularly the use and sale of soft drugs.. but there isn't much that can be done about that short of legalising.. and many would argue that this isn't a measure of crime and doesn't matter.

    TV Licence evasion, for example, is also at a record high, but I'm not too worried about that.

    I'm pretty sure white-collar crime such as fraud tends to go up year on year as well.

    Cannabis should be tested to see if it's safe for people to use so they can ease their pain from their joints or wherever. For getting high purposes, I don't really agree with this.
  • tim59tim59 Posts: 47,188
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    You cannot always believe figures, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2543438/Get-ready-sharp-rise-crime-Statistics-not-audited-FIVE-years-police-continued-say-crime-falling.html Crime figures are likely to increase sharply following revelations about police ‘fiddling’ the data, MPs were warned yesterday.

    The UK’s statistics watchdog revealed there has been no proper audit of the figures recorded by the police for an astonishing five years.

    The experts predict that, when the figures are thoroughly checked, it will lead to crime once again beginning to rise.
  • Deep PurpleDeep Purple Posts: 63,255
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    Figures have always been questioned, and always will be. It is hard to know what the reality is, but I suspect many people don't report minor crime anymore. Unless an insurance claim is going to made, which needs a crime number, why bother if there is nothing to go on with regards to a suspect.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 7
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    I have some doubts over the figures. There seems to be a lot more anti-social behaviour where I live then there used to be but the crime statistics from my area seem to say the opposite.

    I used to call the police out about anti-social behaviour but they would take ages to arrive, a lot of the time they didn't seem interested and nothing was ever done about it. I stopped calling the police in the end but the problem hasn't gone away and I am now trying to move because of it.

    Even if the figures turned out to be accurate - I would still wonder if there were a lot of people out there like me who have stopped reporting crime because the police weren't very helpful.
  • davidmcndavidmcn Posts: 12,086
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    But it's not just reported crime which has fallen. Surveys like the British Crime Survey (which asks people if they've been a victim of crime, whether or not they called the police) also show a fall.

    Ask people whether in general they think crime has got worse and of course they'll say yes, because that's what everybody else moans about (and we all like to think life was better in the good old days, don't we?)
  • anais32anais32 Posts: 12,963
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    Crime is certainly falling. And it is falling everywhere - not just in the UK. The biggest drops are in violent crime.

    This has nothing to do with the way crime figures are collected by police ('recorded' crime) because it is equally true of reported crime (as has been mentioned the British Crime Survey which asks people about their own experiences of being a victim of crime).

    White collar crime, however, is increasing.
  • SomnerSomner Posts: 9,412
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    Some is, some isn't.

    Joyriding is pretty rare now, so the offence of Taking a motor vehicle without consent has dropped. However stealing cars to order is now big business so the offence of Theft of motor vehicle is increasing.

    Big robberies aren't so common now either, because it's much easier, profitable and safer to just clone somebody's bank card, or get hold of their internet banking details.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 929
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    Crime is rising, not falling. All you need to do is look at the headlines every day and you see they're worse than they were 50 years ago.
  • SomnerSomner Posts: 9,412
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    3sweet5u wrote: »
    Crime is rising, not falling. All you need to do is look at the headlines every day and you see they're worse than they were 50 years ago.

    50 years ago we didn't have rolling 24 hours news, breaking news updates on our mobile phones, 'citizen reporters', Twitter, etc etc...
  • Deep PurpleDeep Purple Posts: 63,255
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    Somner wrote: »
    Some is, some isn't.

    Joyriding is pretty rare now, so the offence of Taking a motor vehicle without consent has dropped. However stealing cars to order is now big business so the offence of Theft of motor vehicle is increasing.

    Big robberies aren't so common now either, because it's much easier, profitable and safer to just clone somebody's bank card, or get hold of their internet banking details.

    I would say the 80s were the heyday of TWOC. It was always on the news, and cars were being taken every night. Security was pretty much non existent, and it was hardly worth bothering locking the car, because so many knew how to easily get in, and start them.

    Things have changed dramatically in that respect, and that's how things go. Prevention in some areas changes things, and other crimes take their place.
  • anais32anais32 Posts: 12,963
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    Somner wrote: »
    Some is, some isn't.

    Joyriding is pretty rare now, so the offence of Taking a motor vehicle without consent has dropped. However stealing cars to order is now big business so the offence of Theft of motor vehicle is increasing.

    Big robberies aren't so common now either, because it's much easier, profitable and safer to just clone somebody's bank card, or get hold of their internet banking details.

    Where are you getting the idea that theft of motor vehicle crime is increasing? It is not.

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jul/14/crime-statistics-england-wales

    In terms of 'traditional' crimes against property/people, street robberies are the only category increasing.
  • anais32anais32 Posts: 12,963
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    3sweet5u wrote: »
    Crime is rising, not falling. All you need to do is look at the headlines every day and you see they're worse than they were 50 years ago.

    Ah, the other aspect of crime figures which is always of interest ...

    The fear of crime is often in complete disproportion to the reality. Those who fear crime most are often the groups least likely to be victims.

    As Somner says, the newsflow increases the fear.

    The fear of paedos is a case in point. Actually the police and probation do a very good job of monitoring high risk individuals yet everyone seems to think they don't.
  • Pumping IronPumping Iron Posts: 29,891
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    anais32 wrote: »
    Ah, the other aspect of crime figures which is always of interest ...

    The fear of crime is often in complete disproportion to the reality. Those who fear crime most are often the groups least likely to be victims.

    As Somner says, the newsflow increases the fear.

    The fear of paedos is a case in point. Actually the police and probation do a very good job of monitoring high risk individuals yet everyone seems to think they don't.

    Agree entirely. People thirty years ago used to let their kids play out, nowadays often they don't due to the fear factor created by the media. Infact the country in general is probably a far safer place today.
  • GeordiePaulGeordiePaul Posts: 1,323
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    I'm 35 in a few days, and it certainly seems safer around here than 20 years ago. Violent crime, fights, muggings, gang battles were all more prevalent, in a way you could actually witness rather than just reading about it. Some parts of my home city were so bad even the police avoided going into some areas.

    Now, you could walk around 90% of this city at almost any time of the day or night and you would not feel threatened or witness anything.

    I certainly reckon crime has gone down, at least here anyway - can't speak for those parts that have always been "affluent".
  • davidmcndavidmcn Posts: 12,086
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    3sweet5u wrote: »
    Crime is rising, not falling. All you need to do is look at the headlines every day and you see they're worse than they were 50 years ago.

    Why, what do you think they wrote headlines about 50 years ago?
  • Deep PurpleDeep Purple Posts: 63,255
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    anais32 wrote: »
    Where are you getting the idea that theft of motor vehicle crime is increasing? It is not.

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jul/14/crime-statistics-england-wales

    In terms of 'traditional' crimes against property/people, street robberies are the only category increasing.

    I think what he said was valid. The theft of high value cars has increased, but cases of TWOC, many of which were recorded as Thefts initially, has dropped.
  • Drunken ScouserDrunken Scouser Posts: 2,645
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    Ignore the police figures, and go by the British Crime Survey. (Now the English & Welsh Crime Survey)

    It interviews tens of thousands of people and is demographically weighted to be representative of the public. It is specifically designed to measure crimes that don't get reported to the police. It shows crime is about half what it was 20 years ago. Crime peaked around the mid-90s, then dropped significantly, before the drop plateaued in the 2000s, before beginning to drop again, mostly driven by a large fall in youth crime.

    Do try to ignore tabloids & trashy local rags. The Liverpool Echo is particularly bad for this. If you knew nothing about Liverpool but read the Echo every day for year you'd think the place was bloody Sodom & Gomorrah.

    Your own experiences are equally unreliable. Our brains are programmed to overestimate the presence of danger. It's a survival instinct we've evolved.

    Crime will very likely carry on going down, because today's kids are so much more closely supervised by their parents & other adults than the kids of 10 or 20 years ago were and as such are given fewer opportunities to get into trouble.

    The old theory that economic difficulties cause crime still has some truth to it, however it's far from the only factor and can easily be outweighed by other causes, hence the predictions after 2008 of a crime wave being proved so badly wrong.
  • anais32anais32 Posts: 12,963
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    With regards the economics, I prefer the 'strain' theory which puts much more focus on social exclusion and inequality than merely 'poverty'.

    But that in itself is problematic. Arguably 'white collar crime' which is overwhelmingly undetected and when it is detected is treated rather leniently; causes greater social problems than other types of crime.

    So it isn't just the poor who are usually on the receiving end of crime; they are usually disproportionately punished for crime.
  • BluescopeBluescope Posts: 3,432
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    pjw1985 wrote: »
    We keep hearing about how year on year crime is falling. If i'm totally honest i have doubts over this. What i suspect is more likely is that firstly a lot of crime goes unreported because people don't believe the police will do anything about it so they don't bother reporting it. Secondly when they do report it the police probably don't take a lot of the more petty crimes all that seriously. Thirdly there will always be a certain amount of unknown and undetected crime.

    So this claim that crime is falling. Do i believe it? I am dubious to the extreme. Do you believe it?

    The stats do show that crime is falling and I do tend to believe it. The reason is to do with social change we are in general much better off. While you can point to the wealth gap it remains true that even the poor today are much better off than the poor 30 years ago.

    It might not seem like it but health, living standards, diet etc have all improved and as people drift more towards the middle income bracket the driver to steal or commit crime is reduced.

    It would also be much harder to get away with certain crimes today's. We have seen a reduction in hard crimes such as bank jobs but a move more towards scam types crimes.

    Sadly the media reporting focus largely on crime giving us an unbalance view of the world around us. Not only the newspapers and TV reports but even have whole shows and channels focused on crime.
  • Drunken ScouserDrunken Scouser Posts: 2,645
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    NHS data has just been released showing the number of people turning up at hospital having been victims of serious violence is well down in recent years.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    When we have the Crime Survey, police stats, court stats and NHS stats all saying the same thing I really don't think it's very credible to deny it.
  • anais32anais32 Posts: 12,963
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    Exactly. Violent crime is the area of crime which has seen the biggest drops. Perhaps it is obesity - we're all too fat and lardy and unfit.

    I've heard many explanations for it - from the removal of lead in petrol to the growth in social networks (teens always have something to do).
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