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The 2009 Mercury Music Prize Speculation Thread
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I started last year's in May and thought that was early. Ladbrokes don't seem to be scared of a betting sting (hello friends of Elbow!) in issuing some odds pretty damn early...
~ To win the 2009 Nationwide Mercury Prize:
Glasvegas 8/1
The Bug 10/1
Bloc Party 14/1
Roots Manuva 16/1
Black Affair 20/1
Foals 20/1
Friendly Fires 20/1
James Yorkston 20/1
Laura Marling 20/1
Late Of The Pier 25/1
Blur 33/1
Coldplay 33/1
James Youill 33/1
White Lies 33/1
Arctic Monkeys 40/1
Franz Ferdinand 40/1
Florence And The Machine 50/1
Kaiser Chiefs 50/1
Keane 50/1
Little Boots 50/1
Metronomy 50/1
Morrissey 50/1
Mumford & Sons 50/1
Muse 50/1
Snow Patrol 50/1
The Big Pink 50/1
The Bookhouse Boys 50/1
The Rakes 50/1
The Streets 50/1
Travis 50/1
La Roux 66/1
Pet Shop Boys 66/1
Roxy Music 66/1
The Cure 66/1
Alexandra Burke 100/1
Amy Winehouse 100/1
Dan Black 100/1
Lily Allen 100/1
Master Shortie 100/1
Oasis 100/1
Pete Doherty 100/1
...Ladbrokes in my opinion are setting themselves up for a nasty fall in September.
The winner might not even be on the shortlist above but to form an informed opinion now seems absurd particularly with the twelve nominated albums announced in July with the winner announced in September.
~ To win the 2009 Nationwide Mercury Prize:
Glasvegas 8/1
The Bug 10/1
Bloc Party 14/1
Roots Manuva 16/1
Black Affair 20/1
Foals 20/1
Friendly Fires 20/1
James Yorkston 20/1
Laura Marling 20/1
Late Of The Pier 25/1
Blur 33/1
Coldplay 33/1
James Youill 33/1
White Lies 33/1
Arctic Monkeys 40/1
Franz Ferdinand 40/1
Florence And The Machine 50/1
Kaiser Chiefs 50/1
Keane 50/1
Little Boots 50/1
Metronomy 50/1
Morrissey 50/1
Mumford & Sons 50/1
Muse 50/1
Snow Patrol 50/1
The Big Pink 50/1
The Bookhouse Boys 50/1
The Rakes 50/1
The Streets 50/1
Travis 50/1
La Roux 66/1
Pet Shop Boys 66/1
Roxy Music 66/1
The Cure 66/1
Alexandra Burke 100/1
Amy Winehouse 100/1
Dan Black 100/1
Lily Allen 100/1
Master Shortie 100/1
Oasis 100/1
Pete Doherty 100/1
...Ladbrokes in my opinion are setting themselves up for a nasty fall in September.
The winner might not even be on the shortlist above but to form an informed opinion now seems absurd particularly with the twelve nominated albums announced in July with the winner announced in September.
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How are Ladbrokes setting themselves up for a nasty fall ?? Like you said, the winner probaly is'nt even on the list yet, so if people are silly enough to place bets now then Ladbrokes are making money, not losing it !
Pedantics aside one has to assume that the winner will be at fairly large odds-against or have a fair amount of supporters and those who in the know will know who the frontrunners are already.
I'm not convinced Ladbrokes know though but the 8/1 for Glasvegas seems fairly preemptive due to the praise they were getting when they first burst into the public consciousness. Glasvegas are worthy but uneasy frontrunners and of course being anointed as the betting favourite their chances are almost assuredly doomed.
OT: Back at the start of 2006 William Hill were inundated with punters asking for odds on Arctic Monkeys winning the Mercury Music Prize, and gave initial odds of 5/1. They swiftly took on a liability of a few thousand pounds before quickly calling it a day and waiting for the nominations to be announced in July.
Interesting the Arctic Monkeys were 4/1+ across the board when the nominations were announced anyway before they were quickly backed into almost odds-on.
The Bug should be one of the favourites as it's a really impressive and enjoyable album and will obviously be unlike any other album on the list. It'll probably be the one I want to win.
I suppose it would be too much to ask for either F*ck Buttons. Wild Beasts or The Week That Was to feature but Mumford and Sons should stand quite a good chance of making the short list, as will the artists that look like they're going to be pimped the hardest this year i.e. Little Boots, White Lies, Florence and the Machine and La Roux.
Since March, Barclaycard have taken over from Nationwide as the sponsor of the prize and officially it's called the Barclaycard Mercury Prize now (cynics might like to point out that they've taken the music out of the title...even more cattier wags would probably suggest 'music' was never a part of the prize! Ho-ho!
I think a surprise contender for a nomination may be Speech Dabelle's 'Speech Therapy' but it's nothing but a hunch (whoops! I think I've just doomed their chances!
I'll be kinda surprised if Doves win after Elbow's win last year (I must be the only one who does not 'get' Elbow...I kinda just about like Grounds For Divorce but that's about it).
Nominations announced on Tuesday 21st July with the winner announced on Tuesday 9th September.
Updated odds from Ladbrokes:
Doves 4/1
Bat For Lashes 6/1
La Roux 7/1
Florence And The Machine 10/1
Glasvegas 10/1
Little Boots 10/1
The Bug 14/1
Friendly Fires 20/1
Lily Allen 20/1
The Horrors 20/1
White Lies 20/1
Late Of The Pier 25/1
PJ Harvey 25/1
The Noisettes 25/1
The Phantom Band 25/1
Black Affair 33/1
Bloc Party 33/1
Foals 33/1
Gallows 33/1
Golden Silvers 33/1
Laura Marling 33/1
Maccabees 33/1
Roots Manuva 33/1
Arctic Monkeys 40/1
James Youill 40/1
Super Furry Animals 40/1
Franz Ferdinand 50/1
James Yorkston 50/1
Jersey Budd 50/1
Kasabian 50/1
Manic Street Preachers 50/1
Metronomy 50/1
Mumford & Sons 50/1
Paolo Nutini 50/1
The Big Pink 50/1
The Bookhouse Boys 50/1
Brakes 66/1
Coldplay 66/1
Keane 66/1
Morrissey 66/1
Muse 66/1
Pet Shop Boys 66/1
Snow Patrol 66/1
Alexandra Burke 100/1
Amy Winehouse 100/1
Blur 100/1
Dan Black 100/1
Kaiser Chiefs 100/1
Madness 100/1
Master Shortie 100/1
Megson 100/1
Mongrel 100/1
Oasis 100/1
Pete Doherty 100/1
Roxy Music 100/1
The Cure 100/1
The Prodigy 100/1
The Rakes 100/1
The Streets 100/1
Travis 100/1
Tonight: Franz Ferdinand was a great album and I cant believe that it has failed commercially so much! It has to make the final 10 though surely?
I find it crazy having odds on albums that are not even released yet. What about Kasabian? I think that there new one is going to be an absolute stormer!
Mind you after the crime last Year of leaving off Goldfrapp's beautiful Seventh Tree from the final cut who knows?
Updated odds from Ladbrokes:
Doves 5/1
Little Boots 5/1
Bat For Lashes 6/1
La Roux 7/1
Florence And The Machine 10/1
Glasvegas 12/1
Lily Allen 12/1
Friendly Fires 20/1
The Bug 20/1
The Horrors 20/1
PJ Harvey 25/1
The Noisettes 25/1
The Phantom Band 25/1
White Lies 25/1
Bloc Party 33/1
Foals 33/1
Golden Silvers 33/1
Late Of The Pier 33/1
Roots Manuva 33/1
The View 33/1
Black Affair 40/1
Maccabees 40/1
Patrick Wolf 40/1
Super Furry Animals 40/1
The Grammatics 40/1
Arctic Monkeys 50/1
Gallows 50/1
Jack Penate 50/1
James Yorkston 50/1
James Youill 50/1
Kasabian 50/1
Manic Street Preachers 50/1
Metronomy 50/1
Paolo Nutini 50/1
The Big Pink 50/1
The Prodigy 50/1
Troyka 50/1
Brakes 66/1
Coldplay 66/1
Franz Ferdinand 66/1
Jersey Budd 66/1
Keane 66/1
Laura Marling 66/1
Morrissey 66/1
Mumford & Sons 66/1
Muse 66/1
Pet Shop Boys 66/1
Skepta 66/1
Alexandra Burke 100/1
Amy Winehouse 100/1
Blur 100/1
Dan Black 100/1
Gary Go 100/1
Jarvis Cocker 100/1
Kaiser Chiefs 100/1
Madness 100/1
Master Shortie 100/1
Megson 100/1
Mongrel 100/1
Oasis 100/1
Pete Doherty 100/1
Roxy Music 100/1
Simple Minds 100/1
Snow Patrol 100/1
Take That 100/1
The Bookhouse Boys 100/1
The Cure 100/1
The Enemy 100/1
The Rakes 100/1
The Streets 100/1
Travis 100/1
Hmmm. A gamble on Little Boots? Hmmm. If that comes off that's a gamble well-landed. 50/1 into 5/1!? GADZOOKS!! I've forgotten who Victoria's supposed to be dating...
Some of these folks conveniently have their albums released during July. Build up the hype, release album close to nomination time, get nomination, increase sales even more. Quaint idea isn't it? Well when it works, mind you.
How much room on the shortlist are there for Eighties/electro pop/rock style albums though? Surely Florence and The Machine, La Roux, Little Boots and White Lies can't ALL make the shortlist of twelve!? Or maybe they can?
I'm tipping VV Brown to get a nomination. She's pretty good from the stuff I've heard so far, seems to have timed the release of her album at the right time and if the likes of Jamelia, Beverley Knight and Estelle can get a mention she should easily canter to a nomination. I'm tempted to ask Ladbrokes for odds but I'd be wasting my time as she ain't gonna win.
I hope I haven't doomed her chances but mind you last year, I said there's always an Irish act who gets a nomination and NO Irish act did get nominated!
I will be pleasantly surprised if the majority of the nominations are female acts/acts led by females.
NOTE: I'm not saying VV Brown is Irish, you pedants! I'm just saying I'm not good at predicting at how award shows are supposed to go! I don't have the winner down yet either so you can't lay my winner's prediction over at Betfair!
Also, I'm sure that betting list includes artists who aren't even eligible for the prize, and what about Camera Obscura?
Isn't it just and it would be amazing to see Yorkston finally get the recognition he deserves.
Would be disappointed if The Leisure Society aren't nominated though
Agreed :cool:
Aren't La Roux french?
Just listened to Jack Penate's new album and I must say it's amazing, it's in with a good chance for the win imo.
Bat For Lashes will win though I think, stunning is all I can say.
Looks like someone asked 'em on my behalf or Ladbrokes is reading this (hello there, Ladbrokes!) as she's 33/1.
If you're reading this do give out odds for the folks who have kindly put their two pennies in this thread for:
* The Leisure Society's 'The Sleeper'
* Blue Roses' 'Blue Roses'
* Camera Obscura's 'My Maudlin Career'
* Emmy the Great's 'First Love' (and *COUGH, COUGH*)
* Micachu's 'Jewellery'
Some of the odds are indeed holdovers from the list released in January and well if you bet on an act (like Blur or Arctic Monkeys) and they haven't even released an album...well that's tough tata tots for you as uninformed bettor as it's all in-running or not ante-post rules so "Punter beware!".
There's some speculation over on Sound Opinions that Florence and The Machine's 'Lungs' as it's released on July 6th may be ineligible as a result. Not sure how though as it gives the panel a couple of weeks to like/hate it enough before the dreaded July 21st nominations announcement. One contributor suggests that from one of the judges that albums for consideration for the award have to be submitted in May. Hmmm.
OT: If PJ Harvey somehow wins for 'A Woman A Man Walked By', her collaboration with John Parish I'm sure Ladbrokes will settle the bet as a winner if you did back PJ Harvey to win at 25/1. It'd be a different matter if John Parish was also in the betting (he'd almost definitely be higher odds on his own for one thing) and it'd probably be a void bet as a result but do ask Ladbrokes regarding this.
Bat For Lashes should have thumped Klaxons into oblivion last time 'round she was nominated but I assume being told what to like did her no favours with the panel (it's generally no fun being the favourite but I'm sure Franz Ferdinand and Arctic Monkeys will tell you differently). I'm probably being bitter but I remember the rumour in that one of the judges hinting it was a 'compromise vote' in that Klaxons didn't win outright and that any one of three other acts could have won instead.
We've been really please with the amount of interest in this - usually we wouldn't issue prices until the nominations are released. The worst results for Ladbrokes at the time of writing are:
1. Doves 5/1
2. Florence & The Machine 8/1
3. The Prodigy 50/1
4. Little Boots 5/1
5. Lily Allen 12/1.
The handful of punters who backed Little Boots at the opening 100/1 must be feeling particularly pleased with themselves.
Lily Allen and The Prodigy being backed to win this year!? I AM surprised by that! :eek:
Various new odds as I'm not going to just keep putting up the list of odds as it just gets repetitive:
Led Bib 40/1
Blue Roses 50/1
Micachu 50/1
Emmy the Great 66/1
The Leisure Society 66/1
The Rumble Strips 66/1
Camera Obscura 100/1
Posters over at Drowned In Sound aren't impressed by the supposed frontrunners (odds were from Boylesports, mind you):
http://drownedinsound.com/community/boards/music/4187379
Interesting opinion from the Nyevsky Prospect blog (XL might push Friendly Fires and The Horrors ahead of Blue Roses!?):
http://nyevskyprospect.blogspot.com/2009/06/mercury-music-prize-2009.html
I agree that you can probably 'realistically' try and think of NINE albums that the panel will pick whilst they'll throw in three unfathomable only-if-you're-an-insider choices that are from the classical (not so much these days), folk and jazz genres.
And as an OT Jude Rogers on being a judge last year:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/musicblog/2008/jul/23/mercuryprize2008judgemeno
*COUGH, COUGH* Let's have a predictions contest! (CUE: Tumbleweeds...) Oh go on...I might even put up a few prizes for the winners as an incentive!
I must say I lost alot of faith in this competition last year when M.I.A. wasn't even nominated....and now we're talking about inferior female artists like Little Boots, La Roux and Florence in with a good chance of winning. Crazy!