Will Carswell take Clacton for ukip ?

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  • Sweaty Job RotSweaty Job Rot Posts: 2,031
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    In my experience chavs as you describe them are far more likely to vote Labour than for any other party. Cos they generally live on council estates and claim benefits I would assume.

    And sorry I do find your posts rather patronising!

    I went to Saffron Walden recently and I didn't see a single non white face in the town all day. Why do such supposedly right on and progressive people choose to live in a town which is about 99 per cent white British? Answers on a postcard!:D

    Clacton by contrast is far more diverse!

    There really is no need to be sneering about people - just cos you happen to live an area full of chavs with money!:D

    The reason why some choose to sneer is due to their own ignorance and lack of understanding as to why politics is never black and white, UKIP have taken council seats in Labour heartlands so its stupid to say they only attract chavs because voters regardless of who they support are usually normal everyday folk, chavs on the other hand are unlikely to even vote.
  • trevgotrevgo Posts: 28,241
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    LostFool wrote: »
    Indeed. It is these sort of areas where the so-called "Blue Labour" voter will be found. They are the working class people who went over to Thatcher in 1979 and then switched to Blair in 1997. They are aspirational, believe in hard work, hate "scroungers", many are self-employed "white van" drivers and are anti-immigration as it hits them in the pocket. They are disillusioned with both main parties which is why they are leaning to UKIP.

    Absolutely spot on.
  • glasshalffullglasshalffull Posts: 22,291
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    LostFool wrote: »
    Indeed. It is these sort of areas where the so-called "Blue Labour" voter will be found. They are the working class people who went over to Thatcher in 1979 and then switched to Blair in 1997. They are aspirational, believe in hard work, hate "scroungers", many are self-employed "white van" drivers and are anti-immigration as it hits them in the pocket. They are disillusioned with both main parties which is why they are leaning to UKIP.

    I think you forgot one thing...they are often the children or grandchildren of former London slum dwellers relocated to vast housing estates post war and now own their own former council houses/barratt boxes (with compulsory Doric Columns and stone lions) thanks to the right to buy at knock down prices or the profit made from selling on/inheriting right to buy properties.
  • LostFoolLostFool Posts: 90,647
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    I think you forgot one thing...they are often the children or grandchildren of former London slum dwellers relocated to vast housing estates post war and now own their own former council houses/barratt boxes (with compulsory Doric Columns and stone lions) thanks to the right to buy at knock down prices or the profit made from selling on/inheriting right to buy properties.

    There's a lot of truth in that. It just shows that the demographics of that area is quite different to elsewhere. All the major parties should be worried that they seem incapable of speaking for these people.
  • Kiko H FanKiko H Fan Posts: 6,546
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    In my experience chavs as you describe them are far more likely to vote Labour than for any other party. Cos they generally live on council estates and claim benefits I would assume.

    I think you need to gain some more experience by spending some time in Borehamwood, a Tory stronghold since 1992.
  • glasshalffullglasshalffull Posts: 22,291
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    Kiko H Fan wrote: »
    I think you need to gain some more experience by spending some time in Borehamwood, a Tory stronghold since 1992.

    Borehamwood is only one relatively small part of the Hertsmere constituency...the rest is places like Potters Bar, Aldenham, Radlett, Elstree and Bushey.

    Aside from Borehamwood "town" the rest of that constituency has some of the least deprived wards in the whole of the country.

    And on the District Council of Hertmere IIRC the only part of it which returns Labour councillors are from within the "town" of Borehamwood...the rest of it is solid Tory.

    So in truth Borehamwood is a Labour stronghold surrounded and outnumbered by a sea of Tories.
  • northantsgirlnorthantsgirl Posts: 4,663
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    Borehamwood is only one relatively small part of the Hertsmere constituency...the rest is places like Potters Bar, Aldenham, Radlett, Elstree and Bushey.

    Aside from Borehamwood "town" the rest of that constituency has some of the least deprived wards in the whole of the country.

    And on the District Council of Hertmere IIRC the only part of it which returns Labour councillors are from within the "town" of Borehamwood...the rest of it is solid Tory.

    So in truth Borehamwood is a Labour stronghold surrounded and outnumbered by a sea of Tories.

    To think that Borehamwood was the Hollywood of the UK! Not much film industry left now- largely TV with EastEnders, Holby City and Big Brother based there.
  • glasshalffullglasshalffull Posts: 22,291
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    To think that Borehamwood was the Hollywood of the UK! Not much film industry left now- largely TV with EastEnders, Holby City and Big Brother based there.


    And don't forget...the birthplace of Simon Cowell :o...blue plaque on Nandos time? ;-)
  • blueisthecolourblueisthecolour Posts: 20,125
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    I think you forgot one thing...they are often the children or grandchildren of former London slum dwellers relocated to vast housing estates post war and now own their own former council houses/barratt boxes (with compulsory Doric Columns and stone lions) thanks to the right to buy at knock down prices or the profit made from selling on/inheriting right to buy properties.

    It all comes back to accommodation and house prices.

    The reason that these 'Blue Labour' individuals support the concept of self sufficiency was because it was a clear possibility in the 80s/early 90s. If you had a semi professional job, or small business and worked hard then with a bit of struggle you could have your 3 bedroom terrace/semi and enough income to live what you'd consider to be a reasonable lifestyle. I can completely understand how people brought up in this environment can look down on younger people on benefits and despair.

    However the reality I see for young people earning less than £20k who have no inheritance or support from their parents is that this is no longer possible. I wrote a post a long time ago explaining the daily reality of someone who doesn't have higher education or training and the replies I got along the lines of "well if you don't study then you've already ruined your life". Is that an acceptable point of view, that people can be written off at 20?
  • radcliffe95radcliffe95 Posts: 4,086
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    Second MP, but first one to be elected

    Who's the first?
  • Kiko H FanKiko H Fan Posts: 6,546
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    Borehamwood is only one relatively small part of the Hertsmere constituency...the rest is places like Potters Bar, Aldenham, Radlett, Elstree and Bushey.

    Aside from Borehamwood "town" the rest of that constituency has some of the least deprived wards in the whole of the country.

    And on the District Council of Hertmere IIRC the only part of it which returns Labour councillors are from within the "town" of Borehamwood...the rest of it is solid Tory.

    So in truth Borehamwood is a Labour stronghold surrounded and outnumbered by a sea of Tories.

    S'funny. I never met any Labour supporters in my 7 years of working there.
  • SoppyfanSoppyfan Posts: 29,911
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    I bet it will be on a low turnout, since turnouts everywhere have plummeted since 2010.
  • bluebladeblueblade Posts: 88,859
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    Soppyfan wrote: »
    I bet it will be on a low turnout, since turnouts everywhere have plummeted since 2010.

    Turnout was 64.2% in 2010
  • hatpeghatpeg Posts: 3,215
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    With so many people pouring in, many claiming benefits, draining the Health Service and public sector resources, I think Carswell will easily get the votes of the Clacton electorate.

    Yes, all these Londoners, being rehoused in Clacton by East London Councils buying up new builds to save on housing benefit and getting rid of their problem tenants, is causing lots of problems in the area.
  • radio4extracrapradio4extracrap Posts: 2,933
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    hatpeg wrote: »
    With so many people pouring in, many claiming benefits, draining the Health Service and public sector resources, I think Carswell will easily get the votes of the Clacton electorate.

    Yes, all these Londoners, being rehoused in Clacton by East London Councils buying up new builds to save on housing benefit and getting rid of their problem tenants, is causing lots of problems in the area.

    You win the first prize, being bang on.
  • Watcher #1Watcher #1 Posts: 9,040
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    He'll win, and it will be fun trying to disentangle his personal vote from the UKIP vote.

    And, regardless of his politics, I admire anyone who crosses the floor and resigns to drive a by-election. It is the right thing to do.
  • exlordlucanexlordlucan Posts: 35,375
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    blueblade wrote: »
    Little bit disappointed about some of the really offensive remarks that have been made about the people of Clacton/Essex, especially the wrongly spelt but obvious use of a nazi word (yes, I'm invoking Godwin, justifiably)

    I suppose those who dislike ukip will attempt to denigrate the inhabitants of an entire area, rather than just go along with the democratic process, and accept that some people think differently to them. It's a form of denial, I guess.

    They seem to have conveniently forgotten that it's been a strong Conservative seat for four years so what has changed that suddenly makes the electorate such an undisireable people in their eyes?

    I've heard of 'white flight' but never 'Tory flight' so, give or take a few, they should be the same inhabitants as was at the last elections and I don't recall the same mocking of them here as DS then.
  • redtuxredtux Posts: 1,241
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    Who cares tory changing from tory mk1 to tory mk2 (with added fascistic tone)
  • SoppyfanSoppyfan Posts: 29,911
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    blueblade wrote: »

    I was talking about all the other elections that have followed since then.
  • bluebladeblueblade Posts: 88,859
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    Soppyfan wrote: »
    I was talking about all the other elections that have followed since then.

    I know, you said in your post.

    I was giving the 2010 turnout to provide perspective for when we know the 2014 turnout, or if anyone wanted to otherwise speculate what it might be this time, in comparison.
  • hatpeghatpeg Posts: 3,215
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    They seem to have conveniently forgotten that it's been a strong Conservative seat for four years so what has changed that suddenly makes the electorate such an undisireable people in their eyes?

    I've heard of 'white flight' but never 'Tory flight' so, give or take a few, they should be the same inhabitants as was at the last elections and I don't recall the same mocking of them here as DS then.

    UKIP didn't put up a candidate in Clacton at the last election because Carswell was virtually a UKIP candidate then.
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