Ashcroft's poll for the region is interesting, I didn't realize that Labour were so close. Could Farage standing encourage Left Dem voters to rally round Labour whilst at the same time UKIP pick off Tory support amongst the elderly? It would be ironic if Farage standing did lead to a Labour MP given the national narrative "Vote Nigel get Ed"
Ashcroft's poll for the region is interesting, I didn't realize that Labour were so close. Could Farage standing encourage Left Dem voters to rally round Labour whilst at the same time UKIP pick off Tory support amongst the elderly? It would be ironic if Farage standing did lead to a Labour MP given the national narrative "Vote Nigel get Ed"
No, I think Nigel will win the seat comfortably. UKIP did very well in the local and EU elections in Kent.
Ashcroft's poll for the region is interesting, I didn't realize that Labour were so close. Could Farage standing encourage Left Dem voters to rally round Labour whilst at the same time UKIP pick off Tory support amongst the elderly? It would be ironic if Farage standing did lead to a Labour MP given the national narrative "Vote Nigel get Ed"
No. Large numbers of what should hopefully be trad Labour voters in this area will vote for Farage in a 1960s, Powellite throwback type manner. I live in Thanet South and it's clear to me that Farage is going to have a relatively comfortable win.
No. Large numbers of what should hopefully be trad Labour voters in this area will vote for Farage in a 1960s, Powellite throwback type manner. I live in Thanet South and it's clear to me that Farage is going to have a relatively comfortable win.
I suspect you have analysed this correctly, should be a comfortable win for Far he is a clever lad this seat suits UKIP perfectly.
No. Large numbers of what should hopefully be trad Labour voters in this area will vote for Farage in a 1960s, Powellite throwback type manner. I live in Thanet South and it's clear to me that Farage is going to have a relatively comfortable win.
Yes, I realized that the poll I quoted was for early July, so it hasn't taken into account the 'Farage factor'. He probably will win easily then.
The Tories finishing third would be a blow for them.
There isn't much of a Farage factor in elections that the public take seriously, expect parties to have practical policies and turn out in large numbers to vote. Farage has never done that well in Westminster election so he is probably lining up for another bronze medal. He'd stand more chance in a by-election where there is often more protest voting.
I actually think it will be better for UKIP if he does NOT win the seat. This is because although he is good at the odd dramatic moment and grabbing headlines he is not in my opinion a credible politician who would fair well in the Commons.
It would be better if the first UKIP MP (if there is one) in the Commons had more substance and more traditional political skills, in my opinion
Or, what the military used to call, "The Forlorn Hope."
He will be the sacrificial lamb, heading into an unforgiving political arena, of which he has no experience. He can insult and berate as much as tries, but the House of commons will not be so accommodating as the chambers of the EU. His outburst and rants of offensive and insulting language that he is used to giving at the EU, will simply not be tolerated buy the more grown-up Commons.
No, European Council decision of 2002 states that "the office of MEP is incompatible with that of member of a national parliament". An MEP who is elected as an MP, or appointed a Peer, therefore has to stand down from the European Parliament.
So, he'll need to take a cut in salary, unless he finds even more creative ways to screw the expenses system.
Like all UKIP-bullies you play the man not the ball.
And this is the problem, they have no way of debating any political issue with substance.
This weekend I went to a local country fair. UKIP had a stall there (no other party was invited to pitch), they had tea-clothes on display, with Herman Van Rompuy's face, mis-figured into something that depicted a leering pervert, with the words, "The Belgian Damp Dirty Rag" emblazoned across the top. After unsuccessfully trying to engage them into some sort of meaningful debate regarding their policies, I asked if that was what they considered to be grown-up political debate.
I was then set upon by this hideous looking woman (a rather rotund lady in her late fifties and looking as though he had survived an explosion in a make up factory), who then shouted at me for being a racist bigot . She presumably went to the same charm school as Godfrey Bloom. She said that I wasn't entitled to an opinion about their tea-clothes. I asked her if I called Nigel Farage a twit, would that be okay. She said, "of course it wouldn't, that would very ruder and bigoted." I asked why then does she refer to Herman Van Rompuy as "Old Rumpy-pumpy" and a "Belgian Damp Dirty Rag." She responded with, "aren't we entitled to our opinions then?"
That little outburst back-fired on them, because as there were people ready to read their leaflets and one or two signing their petition, they all left. With one lady saying, "if that is the way you treat people who ask questions, I'll not be bothering, thank you."
So, he'll need to take a cut in salary, unless he finds even more creative ways to screw the expenses system.
Ah but the European Parliament does not allow you to employ your missus anymore...which is why quite by chance and of course being the best candidate after an open appointment process...Mrs F now works for one of the other UKIP MEPs.
So move one will be to get her in the UK Parliamentary payroll...since you can employ your missus under that system....no doubt after another appointment process. ;-)
Don't they already have a Tory candidate? Even if they bumped him upstairs, wouldn't the constituency party have a say in the matter?
If I were a voter in a constituency where that happened, I'd vote against the usurper.
So, it's a bit like Farage then.
And no, the local party wouldn't have any say whatsoever, they have to do what central office tell them. They might pretend it was all their idea, but ultimately they would have to bow to head office.
From your analysis I would think Farage should win the seat quite easily .
Also interesting to read he can be MP and MEP at the same time , what a thorn in the side he could be to the Govt then .
I don't think so. He will have to give up being and MEP. However, he will able to have more of an influence as an MP rather than an MEP. I can see UKIP doing well:o
Hmm.....about as much influence and power as George Galloway.
Rev. Ian Paisley was both an MP & MEP from 1979-2004. I'm sure the biggest 3 parties would frown on it, but there is nothing stopping Farage from doing it.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-28840210
I don't think that can happen any more.
No, I think Nigel will win the seat comfortably. UKIP did very well in the local and EU elections in Kent.
No. Large numbers of what should hopefully be trad Labour voters in this area will vote for Farage in a 1960s, Powellite throwback type manner. I live in Thanet South and it's clear to me that Farage is going to have a relatively comfortable win.
I suspect you have analysed this correctly, should be a comfortable win for Far he is a clever lad this seat suits UKIP perfectly.
Then an uncomfortable time in Parliament.
H'mm.
A ranting demagogue would be a more apt description, methinks.
Who will know where the bodies are buried
Yes, I realized that the poll I quoted was for early July, so it hasn't taken into account the 'Farage factor'. He probably will win easily then.
The Tories finishing third would be a blow for them.
Or, what the military used to call, "The Forlorn Hope."
He will be the sacrificial lamb, heading into an unforgiving political arena, of which he has no experience. He can insult and berate as much as tries, but the House of commons will not be so accommodating as the chambers of the EU. His outburst and rants of offensive and insulting language that he is used to giving at the EU, will simply not be tolerated buy the more grown-up Commons.
So, he'll need to take a cut in salary, unless he finds even more creative ways to screw the expenses system.
And this is the problem, they have no way of debating any political issue with substance.
This weekend I went to a local country fair. UKIP had a stall there (no other party was invited to pitch), they had tea-clothes on display, with Herman Van Rompuy's face, mis-figured into something that depicted a leering pervert, with the words, "The Belgian Damp Dirty Rag" emblazoned across the top. After unsuccessfully trying to engage them into some sort of meaningful debate regarding their policies, I asked if that was what they considered to be grown-up political debate.
I was then set upon by this hideous looking woman (a rather rotund lady in her late fifties and looking as though he had survived an explosion in a make up factory), who then shouted at me for being a racist bigot
That little outburst back-fired on them, because as there were people ready to read their leaflets and one or two signing their petition, they all left. With one lady saying, "if that is the way you treat people who ask questions, I'll not be bothering, thank you."
Ah but the European Parliament does not allow you to employ your missus anymore...which is why quite by chance and of course being the best candidate after an open appointment process...Mrs F now works for one of the other UKIP MEPs.
So move one will be to get her in the UK Parliamentary payroll...since you can employ your missus under that system....no doubt after another appointment process. ;-)
So, it's a bit like Farage then.
And no, the local party wouldn't have any say whatsoever, they have to do what central office tell them. They might pretend it was all their idea, but ultimately they would have to bow to head office.
Err.....no he cant.
Hmm.....about as much influence and power as George Galloway.
The rules changed in 2002.
He is just an extreme tory.
I am very pro Europe and would like us to go in further, but I believe that I am in the minority with that view.