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Will Russia "invade" Ukraine

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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    One of the side effects of Putin's aggressive annexation of Crimea is that both ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking influence within Ukraine has now been diminished so it is less likely that any future Kremlin-friendly politicians will hold power alone in Kiev.

    Without a doubt, however they will remain a nusance for the Pro-Europeans and this would further dicourage them from remaining in Ukraine, remember they have seen 2 governments they elected be forced out of power for looking for closer ties with Moscow.
    In one of its comment pieces, the Financial Times also called for more smart sanctions, for moving away from energy dependence on Russian fossil fuels by promoting US gas exports and for support for Ukraine.

    I agree with that, but it is going to take time
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    After the announcement of sanctions yesterday, Russian stocks lost a further $18 billion in value and the flight from the rouble has meant that interest rates have been put up costing Russian businesses and citizens hundreds of millions of dollars equivalent in extra costs. Not only that, the Financial Times has today reported that sanctions applied to the Kremlin's favourite Bank Rossiya has resulted in panic withdrawals by ordinary customers. US sanctions have been well-targeted so far and now quite a few Putin oligarchs are feeling direct sanctions pressure.

    I am not saying it is not effecting Russia, it very much is, rather it would also affect the EU as well if they are uprated...
    If Putin is dumb enough to go after eastern Ukraine then the sanctions will be far more severe, generalised and damaging and if he tries to cripple Ukraine then Ukraine can do exactly the same to Crimea which is dependent upon Ukraine for its water, electricity and oil. It is in Putin's interest now to show some restraint.

    I orginally thought they would invade, but only as a last resort, what they have done is go straight to the invasion part.

    If I was Putin, I would not invade Eastern and Southern Ukraine, rather I would help the Pro-Russians to break off from the Pro-European Government at Kiev see if either Kiev responds or they will "accept" their seperation, if they do respond then I would invade...
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 9,720
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    By the time Cameron gets that far though, we may have already piad a high price for failing to deter Putin.

    How is defending Ukraine in Britain's interests?
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    Racism in Ukraine

    More about the now undemocratic country Obama, Merkel and Cameron want to defend and welcome into EU:

    Ukrainian Newspaper Depicts African and Arabs as Monkeys Groping Women (2012)

    http://observers.france24.com/content/20120126-ukrainian-newspaper-depicts-africans-arabs-monkeys-black-students-ternopil-bar-fight-racism-discrimination

    Racism and Assaults: African Students' Daily Struggle in Ukraine (2013)

    http://observers.france24.com/content/20130808-racism-agression-african-students-ukraine

    Every black man I met where England will play has been beaten up by racists: How one journalist was stunned by the bigotry in the Ukrainian cities hosting our games (2012)

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2153734/Every-black-man-I-met-England-play-beaten-racists-How-journalist-stunned-bigotry-Ukrainian-cities-hosting-games.html
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    Womens' "Rights" in Ukraine -

    More about the now undemocratic country Obama, Merkel and Cameron want to defend and welcome into EU:

    "Post-communist Ukraine has excelled when it comes to sexism – after the economic collapse, large numbers of women were left with little choice but to become sex workers, or find work as cleaners or "mail-order brides"".

    "The provisional Ukrainian government includes figures who have been openly sexist, such as the deputy prime minister, Oleksandr Sych, of the far-right Svoboda party. If these people retain power after the general election on 25 May, the already difficult position of Ukrainian women is likely to get worse".

    "In April 2013 Svoboda registered a bill that would have outlawed abortion even in cases of rape. Sych was widely quoted as saying rape "cannot be proved" and that "[a woman] should lead such a lifestyle so as to not be exposed to the risk of rape. In particular, [she should not be] drinking alcoholic beverages in questionable company.""

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/21/ukraine-turmoil-womens-rights-europe-democracy

    If it is to be a "quisling" to highlight such matters, Britain, the rest of EU and the US have completely lost their way.
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    VeriVeri Posts: 96,996
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    They would though wouldn't they.? if they lose they probably get additional powers so they can claim a victory anyway.If they get a decent vote they can then forever blame the other parties for opposing them. If they win they have a mass exodus of businesses heading south, a set of new treaties to negotiate, and closed shipyards to explain. thye also have to keep Trident or sever even more links with the UK and NATO. Would you really want to win and face all the issues they ahev swept under the carpet?

    I think that's a good point, but the SNP and the (growing number of) people in favour of independence do not seem to see it that way. I think there's a good chance that they'll win, and they must see that it's a real possibility. The "Better Together" campaign seems useless; there are no Labour or Lib Dem politicians who have enough credibility and skill to counter Alex Salmond; and if the Conservatives visibly try to help, it just makes things worse.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    Racism in Ukraine

    More about the now undemocratic country Obama, Merkel and Cameron want to defend and welcome into EU:

    Ukrainian Newspaper Depicts African and Arabs as Monkeys Groping Women (2012)

    http://observers.france24.com/content/20120126-ukrainian-newspaper-depicts-africans-arabs-monkeys-black-students-ternopil-bar-fight-racism-discrimination

    Racism and Assaults: African Students' Daily Struggle in Ukraine (2013)

    http://observers.france24.com/content/20130808-racism-agression-african-students-ukraine

    Every black man I met where England will play has been beaten up by racists: How one journalist was stunned by the bigotry in the Ukrainian cities hosting our games (2012)

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2153734/Every-black-man-I-met-England-play-beaten-racists-How-journalist-stunned-bigotry-Ukrainian-cities-hosting-games.html


    That is commonplace across Ukraine, Russia and Mainland Europe in General, so it is nothing new, LGBT Intolerance is the same in Ukraine as in Russia as well...
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    That is commonplace across Ukraine, Russia and Mainland Europe in General, so it is nothing new, LGBT Intolerance is the same in Ukraine as in Russia as well...

    Yes but, unlike Ukraine, Russia isn't wanted by EU leaders in EU. Plus there is no excuse for the Vice President of the US taking advantage of gay people by suggesting that Russia is terrible on gay rights and Ukraine is not. That - and other recent stances - are an absolute recipe for fomenting social disharmony. There is no sense of measure currently in the western leaders. They are behaving wildly and putting economic self-interest before anything else.

    On the one hand, there was hype around Russia's gay rights record before the Olympics.That continues in an allusive way with the ludicrously offensive Hitler analogies which go beyond questions of land grab. There is much to be criticised about the position of Russia on human rights, including towards minorities, but there are several planets between permitting in law private sexual relations and transporting people to gas chambers for them.

    On the other hand, I would not have even begun to consider EU membership for some of the eastern bloc countries whose record on rights for women, people of ethnic background and gay people is almost as poor as that of Russia. Wilders wouldn't support constraints on gay rights and it seems even Marine Le Pen is now able to say no to the worst elements who discriminate against minorities in Hungary and elsewhere. Meanwhile, so-called liberals are perversely encouraging more of them by supporting them in Ukraine. That is unacceptable. Enough is enough.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    Yes but, unlike Ukraine, Russia isn't wanted by EU leaders in EU. Plus there is no excuse for the Vice President of the US taking advantage of gay people by suggesting that Russia is terrible on gay rights and Ukraine is not. That - and other recent stances - are an absolute recipe for fomenting social disharmony. There is no sense of measure currently in the western leaders. They are behaving wildly and putting economic self-interest before anything else.

    Russia is without a doubt been doing some very homophobic things that is for sure, but Ukraine is little better (one must home joining the EU would change that in the future), there are no anti-discrimnation laws and the last Kiev Pride event was banned. and there have been several "Anti-Gay Propaganda Laws" that where proposed but thankfully not implemented.

    More to follow...
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    Russia is without a doubt been doing some very homophobic things that is for sure, but Ukraine is little better (one must home joining the EU would change that in the future), there are no anti-discrimnation laws and the last Kiev Pride event was banned. and there have been several "Anti-Gay Propaganda Laws" that where proposed but thankfully not implemented.

    More to follow...

    Yes - indeed - at least on the current position in Ukraine. I did post comments on the LGBT situation last night before addressing other human rights issues today. You will find those on this thread above. I don't think many people would have a problem with changing legislative and cultural behaviour via a political process of greater accommodation. However, that requires significant prior signals that it would very quickly be possible rather than arrogant assumption or naive hopefulness among EU/US leaders. Furthermore, the starting point must be clearly identifiable moral high ground, including a robust adherence to democracy. That hasn't happened in this case. Unusually I am of a similar opinion to both Ron Paul and George Galloway on all the current aspects of Ukraine.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    They are behaving wildly and putting economic self-interest before anything else.

    I would not think so considering the state of the Ukrainian Economy, it is more poltical.
    On the one hand, there was hype around Russia's gay rights record before the Olympics.

    With good reason, targeting gays for no reason is unacceptable, if the Saudis every wanted to host the Oylympics, you can bet they will face the same treatment, China got a lot of flack for hosting it as well...
    That continues in an allusive way with the ludicrously offensive Hitler analogies which go beyond questions of land grab. There is much to be criticised about the position of Russia on human rights, including towards minorities, but there are several planets between permitting in law private sexual relations and transporting people to gas chambers for them.

    I certainly agree while Putin is an authoritarian ruler who has cynically used homophobia, the former USSR, nationalism and the economy for his own agenda he is not exactly on the level with Hitler, rather he is more in line with the Tsars and Soviet rulers of past.

    He should however end this "gay propaganda ban" nonsance, there is nothing Un-Russian about being a homo...
    On the other hand, I would not have even begun to consider EU membership for some of the eastern bloc countries whose record on rights for women, people of ethnic background and gay people is almost as poor as that of Russia. Wilders wouldn't support constraints on gay rights and it seems even Marine Le Pen is now able to say no to the worst elements who discriminate against minorities in Hungary and elsewhere. Meanwhile, so-called liberals are perversely encouraging more of them by supporting them in Ukraine. That is unacceptable. Enough is enough.

    Well there is not much left in Eastern Europe for the EU do add, Belarus is basically tied to Russia and is just as bad as Putin.

    Are you also suggesting that Marine Le Pen has issues with the Hungarian Far-Right and Wilders opooses constraints on gay rights?
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    Yes - indeed - at least on the current position in Ukraine. I did post comments on the LGBT situation last night before addressing other human rights issues today. You will find those on this thread above. I don't think many people would have a problem with changing legislative and cultural behaviour via a political process of greater accommodation. However, that requires significant prior signals that it would very quickly be possible rather than arrogant assumption or naive hopefulness among EU/US leaders. Furthermore, the starting point must be clearly identifiable moral high ground, including a robust adherence to democracy. That hasn't happened in this case. Unusually I am of a similar opinion to both Ron Paul and George Galloway on all the current aspects of Ukraine.

    I agree, Ukraine needs to further reform its poltical system and maybe its economy as well and dtich the poltical elite on both sides which has damaged the country very badly.

    The EU/US need to handle this better as well...

    They also need to accomodate the needs and concerns of the Pro-Russians or let them go it alone...
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    I would not think so considering the state of the Ukrainian Economy, it is more poltical.



    With good reason, targeting gays for no reason is unacceptable, if the Saudis every wanted to host the Oylympics, you can bet they will face the same treatment, China got a lot of flack for hosting it as well...



    I certainly agree while Putin is an authoritarian ruler who has cynically used homophobia, the former USSR, nationalism and the economy for his own agenda he is not exactly on the level with Hitler, rather he is more in line with the Tsars and Soviet rulers of past.

    He should however end this "gay propaganda ban" nonsance, there is nothing Un-Russian about being a homo...



    Well there is not much left in Eastern Europe for the EU do add, Belarus is basically tied to Russia and is just as bad as Putin.

    Are you also suggesting that Marine Le Pen has issues with the Hungarian Far-Right and Wilders opooses constraints on gay rights?

    Wilders is not an ally of mine as my perception of him is that he is racist and economically libertarian, neither of which I am. But I understand his libertarianism is sexually liberal. If you can find contrary statements, fair enough,
    as libertarians are baffling to me at the best of times but that is my understanding, yes. He is sexually liberal.

    Le Pen's economics are a bit more comprehensible to me. I understand the political instinct that seeks to limit immigration including working class fears about jobs. I actually think now that EU style immigration is a danger to racial cohesion within countries. In that sense, it is potentially more racist than immigration constraint and I think that is very worrying. Where I am hugely at odds is on the instinctive racism that is driving Le Pen's policy. That is undoubtedly still prevalent in her party. All I am saying is that she has cut ties with BNP, Jobbik and Golden Dawn so she is moving very slightly in the right direction while our liberal leaders are moving clumsily in the wrong one.

    With respect, I am not going to go over the Russian position on gay rights time and again. As I said, there is huge scope for improvements. But it is wholly unrealistic - and actually unfair - for countries that agreed to same sex marriage yesterday in political terms and an equal age of consent last week in political terms to say that everyone has to jump immediately to that idea of good principle or else they are the lowest of the low. Actually, Russia does have an equal age of consent but is remiss in other areas like employment. But Britain was very slow on gay rights and many would have been furious if countries that were more advanced had, for example, boycotted the 1966 World Cup. Patriotism is all very well but not to the extent of putting up with stupidity, lies and double standards.
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    VerenceVerence Posts: 104,589
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    If true, a bit embarrassing (to say the least) for Yulia Tymoshenko

    http://rt.com/news/tymoshenko-calls-destroy-russia-917/
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    Verence wrote: »
    If true, a bit embarrassing (to say the least) for Yulia Tymoshenko

    http://rt.com/news/tymoshenko-calls-destroy-russia-917/

    With friends like that, who needs enemies?

    I see that while Hollande dismissed Cameron's hopes of renegotiating EU terms with an arrogant "not a priority", fellow Socialist Fabius has indicated the French will only cancel their order for Russian warships if Britain applies sanctions on Russia that will mean the British suffer economically. That's their version of "we're all in it together".

    Looking at the BBC website, it seems that the biggest danger to western leaders is not Russia but the widespread loss of support from their own popuIations. Even the daily dialogue from "Professor" Paddy Ashdown on Radio 4's "The World at One" may prove insufficient to control it. As for Ed, he just turns his head again. It will be costly.

    I have never in 40 years experienced an about turn in my long-term political outlook as dramatic as the one I have had in the past month. The knowledge that Ukraine's most powerful woman is a dangerous foul mouthed freak confirms for me my recent gut instincts have been right. Is she a genuine potential ally? Not in any real world.

    Is it too early to contemplate that the vote in the European elections will create a situation in which EU can be destroyed from within by elected representatives? Sod THE Ukraine. It is self-determination for our countries that is now the top priority. The European institution is fast becoming as monstrous as the one once run by Brezhnev.
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    SnipitSnipit Posts: 116
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    This thread is far to big to read to see if my opinion has been covered already, so apologies if this is repetitive. :p

    Ukraine is hugely important, Agriculture wise, known as the "bread basket", its one of the few countries left that can offer a food surplus, have all the oil and gas gold etc, its not much use if you cant feed your people or costs all your resources to feed your people, good enough reason on its own, let alone the historical ties to invade.

    I dont think Russia currently will stop with Crimea next East Ukraine, I believe Russia strongly wants most of the Southern Caucuses back under control too. It has Europe by the short and curlies Germany and France with fossils and the flow of corrupt money into the City of London to be happily cleansed with a percentage by the UK which is evident by our forewarned timid response. :blush:

    If Russia makes moves on the rest of the Ukraine in a military sense, thats when Ukraine will respond with the bullets.:(
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    Jellied EelJellied Eel Posts: 33,091
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    I see that while Hollande dismissed Cameron's hopes of renegotiating EU terms with an arrogant "not a priority", fellow Socialist Fabius has indicated the French will only cancel their order for Russian warships if Britain applies sanctions on Russia that will mean the British suffer economically. That's their version of "we're all in it together".

    In some ways, we are. Euromaidan started out as a protest and a desire for a more 'European' culture and more liberal Ukraine. Our Eurocrats loved the idea and probably watched in horror as the 'revolution' turned into a coup giving a bunch of xenophobic, racist and intolerant thugs power. Obama thinks they're fine though, presumably because he's not spoken to any black people trying to live in the Ukraine. Meanwhile, over in France, their elections have resulted in big gains for their FN/National Front parties, and nationalism is on the increase in other EU countries. This is probably not a good thing..
    Looking at the BBC website, it seems that the biggest danger to western leaders is not Russia but the widespread loss of support from their own popuIations.

    I think it's just a demonstration of how out of touch many politicians are with reality and public opinion, hence the support for the Ukranian coup leaders that defies logic other than age-old fears of Reds in the Med. Or possibly newer fears of a more united, more powerful EU competing with other national interests. The G7 is meeting to be told.. I mean decide what to do, and most of the pressure seems to be to apply sanctions that would harm the EU's economy far more than others. But divide and conquer has always been the way to deal with empires.
    Is it too early to contemplate that the vote in the European elections will create a situation in which EU can be destroyed from within by elected representatives? Sod THE Ukraine. It is self-determination for our countries that is now the top priority. The European institution is fast becoming as monstrous as the one once run by Brezhnev.

    Quite, but there's the risk of increasing nationalism.. which isn't always a bad thing. Hopefully it may lead to the EU going back to being a trading block and less interference in it's members sovereignty. We're Europeans by virtue of geography and culture, not Directives.
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    Jellied EelJellied Eel Posts: 33,091
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    Snipit wrote: »
    Ukraine is hugely important, Agriculture wise, known as the "bread basket", its one of the few countries left that can offer a food surplus, have all the oil and gas gold etc,

    It may not have those if it's forced to adopt EU policies, but then it may need to do some of that due to it's pretty dire economic position and debt.
    If Russia makes moves on the rest of the Ukraine in a military sense, thats when Ukraine will respond with the bullets.:(

    Russia has more, and there's no certainty the Ukraine's military would fully engage. Especially as many may feel more aligned to Russia than it's current coup leaders. One thing the West really needs to do is push for an election in the Ukraine to establish the legitimacy of the current government. That would no doubt be opposed due to the current 'state of emergency'.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 9,720
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    Russia has more, and there's no certainty the Ukraine's military would fully engage. Especially as many may feel more aligned to Russia than it's current coup leaders. One thing the West really needs to do is push for an election in the Ukraine to establish the legitimacy of the current government. That would no doubt be opposed due to the current 'state of emergency'.

    Presidential elections will be held in Ukraine on 25 May 2014.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_presidential_election,_2014
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    alaninmcralaninmcr Posts: 1,685
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    Snipit wrote: »
    This thread is far to big to read to see if my opinion has been covered already, so apologies if this is repetitive. :p

    Ukraine is hugely important, Agriculture wise, known as the "bread basket", its one of the few countries left that can offer a food surplus, have all the oil and gas gold etc,
    Ukraine imports gas from Russia -sometimes more than it pays for. It has a huge debt to Russia despite getting the gas at reduced prices. I wonder how happy EU citizens will be when they realize they'll probably have to subsidise Ukrainian consumers.
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    SnipitSnipit Posts: 116
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    It may not have those if it's forced to adopt EU policies, but then it may need to do some of that due to it's pretty dire economic position and debt.
    Who will control the resources, EU or Russia.


    Russia has more, and there's no certainty the Ukraine's military would fully engage. Especially as many may feel more aligned to Russia than it's current coup leaders. One thing the West really needs to do is push for an election in the Ukraine to establish the legitimacy of the current government. That would no doubt be opposed due to the current 'state of emergency'.

    I'm sure Russia has more bullets. The regime in charge currently who I think are not particularly pleasant either tend to be black and white in their decisions , I believe it would respond like for like because life under Russians would not be comfortable for any one connected.
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    RecordPlayerRecordPlayer Posts: 22,648
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    Ukraine: Campaign for Donetsk 'to join UK'
    :D

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-26716281
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    Jellied EelJellied Eel Posts: 33,091
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    Meilie wrote: »
    Presidential elections will be held in Ukraine on 25 May 2014.

    Unless there's a state of emergency, and they can't be held. But I'm sure the phones are busy to ensure the 'right' result-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26079957

    Pyatt: No, exactly. And I think we've got to do something to make it stick together because you can be pretty sure that if it does start to gain altitude, that the Russians will be working behind the scenes to try to torpedo it.

    Mixing metaphors there but you get the idea who was influencing Euromaiden. And Ass.Sec Nuland's opinion of the EU-

    So that would be great, I think, to help glue this thing and to have the UN help glue it and, you know, F**k the EU.

    But if you've got the UN on-side with their glue, do you need the EU? Except now, when you need the EU to impose sanctions for yet another foreign policy misadventure. Nice protestor, have a cookie..

    http://compliancecampaign.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/nuland-cookies.jpg
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    Jellied EelJellied Eel Posts: 33,091
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    Snipit wrote: »
    Who will control the resources, EU or Russia.

    Quite. But surely Ukraine wants to be independent?
    I'm sure Russia has more bullets. The regime in charge currently who I think are not particularly pleasant either tend to be black and white in their decisions , I believe it would respond like for like because life under Russians would not be comfortable for any one connected.

    Depends who you're referring to. The people of the Crimea seemed to think life under the Russians would be better, hence the referendum results. Other parts of the Ukraine may feel the same way depending on how events develop and what it's government does. It's getting some advice that may make ethnic Russians living in the Ukraine a bit uncomfortable-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26725659

    Meanwhile, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has denied the authenticity of a taped conversation in which she allegedly called for Russia to be turned into "scorched earth" and for ethnic Russians in Ukraine to be killed.

    Ukranian nationalists do have form for ethnic cleansing against Germans, Jews, Russians and Poles and Tymoshenko's government did want the perpetrators of those declared national heroes.

    And this is the government we're now meant to be supporting, and bankrolling..
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