They would have to raid the pensions of teachers policemen fire-fighters and nurses every single year to keep fees at £6000. Perhaps that's why.
Polls showed that the policy was popular (something like 66% to 20%). But when you factor in likely to vote you may be seeing some significant switching in the older working class generation from Labour to Tory.
Talking about the poll in general - it might be at the edge of the margin of error but i'm surprised to see the Tories at 34-36% already, especially given that nothing has really happened to help them recently. Usually these small Tory bumps are after a major event (budget, conference etc) but this is out of nothing.
I'm expecting a sustained Tory lead to start scaring some of the new Green supporters and undecided back to Labour.
What confuses me about this I could understand if Labour had done a wobble etc.
But the Government had a bloody awful week. Labour's tuition fee plan you would think that would have actually helped them but so far its seems to have had the opposite effect.
That will be concerning Labour HQ. They don't appear to be getting any traction and what will be worrying them is CON are undeniably starting to poke their heads into a more regular lead position now. It's still tied but they're leading in the last couple of weeks more often than they used to. We always have the rare CON lead but it was always considered a one off.. now we are seeing CON leading in a variety of polls. It's not a clear lead.. imho it's still tied. But they could find themselves in a 2-3% lead on a constant basis come May if this trend pattern continues. Especially if the budget goes down well with the public.
CON and LAB may be tied but they have not been tied for long. Labour are on a long path of decline and CON have been flat lined. They're now crossing paths.. Lab on the way down.. CON it appears may be starting to inch upwards from it's long term flat.
That will be concerning Labour HQ. They don't appear to be getting any traction and what will be worrying them is CON are undeniably starting to poke their heads into a more regular lead position now. It's still tied but they're leading in the last couple of weeks more often than they used to. We always have the rare CON lead but it was always considered a one off.. now we are seeing CON leading in a variety of polls. It's not a clear lead.. imho it's still tied. But they could find themselves in a 2-3% lead on a constant basis come May if this trend pattern continues. Especially if the budget goes down well with the public.
CON and LAB may be tied but they have not been tied for long. Labour are on a long path of decline and CON have been flat lined. They're now crossing paths.. Lab on the way down.. CON it appears may be starting to inch upwards from it's long term flat.
Polls showed that the policy was popular (something like 66% to 20%). But when you factor in likely to vote you may be seeing some significant switching in the older working class generation from Labour to Tory.
Talking about the poll in general - it might be at the edge of the margin of error but i'm surprised to see the Tories at 34-36% already, especially given that nothing has really happened to help them recently. Usually these small Tory bumps are after a major event (budget, conference etc) but this is out of nothing.
I'm expecting a sustained Tory lead to start scaring some of the new Green supporters and undecided back to Labour.
Just because it is popular, doesn't mean it helps a party. If you feel a party is taxing anyone and everyone, you might find some taxes are to your liking, but feel the party will destroy the country with them all.
It's all about perception of a party, not the policy.
Conservatives and Labour equal on 21.57%, with 11 votes each (out of 51 in the sub sample)although Ashcroft interestingly puts Conservatives on 22% and Labour on 21%.
Lib Dems on 8% (4) equal with greens. SNP on 40% (20) and UKIP didn't have a single person in Scotland who said they'd vote for them (David Coburn is doing really well then).
For the UK as a whole, the BNP didn't get a single vote out of 536 people sampled, so I think it's fairly safe to say they are dead.
Going back to Scotland, it looks like the Tories have actually gained about 5% and he SNP and Green 27% gain is at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems who are down about 30% together.
How could Labour screw it up so comprehensively in their heartlands (answers to Jim Murphy)?
It is becoming more and more obvious Labour don't want to win. I think they want to wait for another election later this year whilst ditching Miliband and Balls. Cameron will probably run a minority government until then and he'll likely be replaced as well.
Conservatives and Labour equal on 21.57%, with 11 votes each (out of 51 in the sub sample)although Ashcroft interestingly puts Conservatives on 22% and Labour on 21%.
Lib Dems on 8% (4) equal with greens. SNP on 40% (20) and UKIP didn't have a single person in Scotland who said they'd vote for them (David Coburn is doing really well then).
For the UK as a whole, the BNP didn't get a single vote out of 536 people sampled, so I think it's fairly safe to say they are dead.
Going back to Scotland, it looks like the Tories have actually gained about 5% and he SNP and Green 27% gain is at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems who are down about 30% together.
How could Labour screw it up so comprehensively in their heartlands (answers to Jim Murphy)?
If true and that's a big if it would be the Tories best Scottish result since at least 1992. Still a poll of 51 people is stretching credibility to the limit. Those are the sort of numbers you might expect in Banff and Buchan I'd have a hard time believing it on a national scale.
I can't help but think some people are jumping to conclusions.
The Conservatives might very well have a slight lead, but we cannot tell at this time. Another week/ten days will give a good guide.
And Ashcroft's polls are worthless as a guide to direction, far too small a sample.
"Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. The unusual three point lead Tory yesterday clearly wasn’t a one off. I will urge all my usual caution, two polls in a row do not necessary make a trend. However, of the last seven YouGov polls they’ve now shown three Tory leads, three draws and one Labour lead so something may indeed be afoot."
"Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. The unusual three point lead Tory yesterday clearly wasn’t a one off. I will urge all my usual caution, two polls in a row do not necessary make a trend. However, of the last seven YouGov polls they’ve now shown three Tory leads, three draws and one Labour lead so something may indeed be afoot."
Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. The unusual three point lead Tory yesterday clearly wasn’t a one off. I will urge all my usual caution, two polls in a row do not necessary make a trend. However, of the last seven YouGov polls they’ve now shown three Tory leads, three draws and one Labour lead so something may indeed be afoot."
It will be a "sea change" when there is a clear and obvious lead for one or other of the parties, if I were you I would 'keep my powder dry' for a while yet, as many others have previously taken a couple or three point lead for the Tories in a couple of polls as "a sea change" check the links I posted to posts from this thread back in October where a brief Tory lead in a couple of polls was hailed as the great Tory revival by many regulars here,
IF the Tories maintain this current "surge" from now until polling day then it might well indicate an improvement in their chances, but as yet a wise man would 'hold his fire'
;-)
"sea change" means a radical change. I don't see any sign of that.
I still say wait 7 to 10 days.
As an exercise I have just looked at all ComRes, Opinium, ICM and YouGov(Sunday Times) polls published in Feb 2014, Aug 2014 and Feb 2015 (6 month gaps) and averaged the figures for each of those three months.
LAB 38.0 35.9 33.6
CON 32.0 31.7 33.0
LD 8.8 8.2 7.3
UKIP 13.1 15.0 15.3
Green 2.8 4.3 6.6
There has been a steady decline in both LAB and LD support over the past year counterbalanced by increased support for UKIP and the Greens whilst the CON vote has remained broadly stable. Make of it what you will. The real test will come only once the election campaign proper gets under way at the end of this month and through April. Will those trends continue, accelerate or be reversed. Should be fascinating.
It will be a "sea change" when there is a clear and obvious lead for one or other of the parties, if I were you I would 'keep my powder dry' for a while yet, as many others have previously taken a couple or three point lead for the Tories in a couple of polls as "a sea change" check the links I posted to posts from this thread back in October where a brief Tory lead in a couple of polls was hailed as the great Tory revival by many regulars here,
IF the Tories maintain this current "surge" from now until polling day then it might well indicate an improvement in their chances, but as yet a wise man would 'hold his fire'
;-)
Yawn. I bet if your beloved Labour was in the lead you wouldn't say that.
IF the Tories maintain this current "surge" from now until polling day then it might well indicate an improvement in their chances, but as yet a wise man would 'hold his fire'
;-)
...and then the left will start to blame the evil Tory media even more no doubt.
Yawn. I bet if your beloved Labour was in the lead you wouldn't say that.
Actually I have been saying EXACTLY that for months, check my posting history.
But don't let a little things like facts get in the way of a snide personal 'dig' eh?
YAWN.
PS. they are most certainly NOT "My Labour" nor are they "beloved" (as the last time I voted for them was in 1997, but then facts are obviously not your strong point)
they are just the only alternative with a chance of unseating the Tories, and that alone is good enough to get my vote.
...and then the left will start to blame the evil Tory media even more no doubt.
Well, not having the powers of mind reading and foreseeing the future, (Like lots on here seem to have) I have to give way to your extra sensory perceptions.
On Newsnight yesterday they had a poll of polls which had Labour with a one point lead.
Hope those Ashcroft numbers are somewhere close to accurate. To take Jim Murphy and the one Tory out would be sweet indeed for the SNP.
Those two alone make me find it REALLY find hard to beleive those polls. In the referendum, Dumfries & Galloway voted 66% No (the third-highest No voting area), and in those 2 seats the SNP were a distant 3rd & 4th place respectively in 2010. Is it really that concievable that the SNP are going to take these seats? Will surely be one of the most remarkable surges in support ever, especially considering how heavily against independence that area was. Two of the most anti-Independence constituencies where the SNP were well behind in 2010 supposedly becoming SNP gains just seems such an unlikely set of circumstances, and makes me want to take these polls with a grain of salt.
Well, not having the powers of mind reading and foreseeing the future, (Like lots on here seem to have) I have to give way to your extra sensory perceptions.
Wise move
I will remind you the next time you blame the Tory media.... it won't be long.
Comments
Polls showed that the policy was popular (something like 66% to 20%). But when you factor in likely to vote you may be seeing some significant switching in the older working class generation from Labour to Tory.
Talking about the poll in general - it might be at the edge of the margin of error but i'm surprised to see the Tories at 34-36% already, especially given that nothing has really happened to help them recently. Usually these small Tory bumps are after a major event (budget, conference etc) but this is out of nothing.
I'm expecting a sustained Tory lead to start scaring some of the new Green supporters and undecided back to Labour.
That will be concerning Labour HQ. They don't appear to be getting any traction and what will be worrying them is CON are undeniably starting to poke their heads into a more regular lead position now. It's still tied but they're leading in the last couple of weeks more often than they used to. We always have the rare CON lead but it was always considered a one off.. now we are seeing CON leading in a variety of polls. It's not a clear lead.. imho it's still tied. But they could find themselves in a 2-3% lead on a constant basis come May if this trend pattern continues. Especially if the budget goes down well with the public.
CON and LAB may be tied but they have not been tied for long. Labour are on a long path of decline and CON have been flat lined. They're now crossing paths.. Lab on the way down.. CON it appears may be starting to inch upwards from it's long term flat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-31715672
Just because it is popular, doesn't mean it helps a party. If you feel a party is taxing anyone and everyone, you might find some taxes are to your liking, but feel the party will destroy the country with them all.
It's all about perception of a party, not the policy.
Conservatives and Labour equal on 21.57%, with 11 votes each (out of 51 in the sub sample)although Ashcroft interestingly puts Conservatives on 22% and Labour on 21%.
Lib Dems on 8% (4) equal with greens. SNP on 40% (20) and UKIP didn't have a single person in Scotland who said they'd vote for them (David Coburn is doing really well then).
For the UK as a whole, the BNP didn't get a single vote out of 536 people sampled, so I think it's fairly safe to say they are dead.
Going back to Scotland, it looks like the Tories have actually gained about 5% and he SNP and Green 27% gain is at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems who are down about 30% together.
How could Labour screw it up so comprehensively in their heartlands (answers to Jim Murphy)?
If true and that's a big if it would be the Tories best Scottish result since at least 1992. Still a poll of 51 people is stretching credibility to the limit. Those are the sort of numbers you might expect in Banff and Buchan I'd have a hard time believing it on a national scale.
The Conservatives might very well have a slight lead, but we cannot tell at this time. Another week/ten days will give a good guide.
And Ashcroft's polls are worthless as a guide to direction, far too small a sample.
"Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. The unusual three point lead Tory yesterday clearly wasn’t a one off. I will urge all my usual caution, two polls in a row do not necessary make a trend. However, of the last seven YouGov polls they’ve now shown three Tory leads, three draws and one Labour lead so something may indeed be afoot."
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk
It's a sea change.
I still say wait 7 to 10 days.
It will be a "sea change" when there is a clear and obvious lead for one or other of the parties, if I were you I would 'keep my powder dry' for a while yet, as many others have previously taken a couple or three point lead for the Tories in a couple of polls as "a sea change" check the links I posted to posts from this thread back in October where a brief Tory lead in a couple of polls was hailed as the great Tory revival by many regulars here,
IF the Tories maintain this current "surge" from now until polling day then it might well indicate an improvement in their chances, but as yet a wise man would 'hold his fire'
;-)
What I should have said is that I think that its the start of a sea change.
And another sure sign is the absence of Jol and his ho ho ho's!
They were the only good things about the Labour leads. I feel a touch of nostalgia.
As an exercise I have just looked at all ComRes, Opinium, ICM and YouGov(Sunday Times) polls published in Feb 2014, Aug 2014 and Feb 2015 (6 month gaps) and averaged the figures for each of those three months.
LAB 38.0 35.9 33.6
CON 32.0 31.7 33.0
LD 8.8 8.2 7.3
UKIP 13.1 15.0 15.3
Green 2.8 4.3 6.6
There has been a steady decline in both LAB and LD support over the past year counterbalanced by increased support for UKIP and the Greens whilst the CON vote has remained broadly stable. Make of it what you will. The real test will come only once the election campaign proper gets under way at the end of this month and through April. Will those trends continue, accelerate or be reversed. Should be fascinating.
Yawn. I bet if your beloved Labour was in the lead you wouldn't say that.
And I miss his "vile tory scum" contributions
Me too. I quite liked his chutzpah...
SNP-LABOUR seats…
Ayr—11% SNP
Dumfries—4% SNP
Renfrewshire E (MURPHY'S SEAT)— 1% LAB LEAD
Edinburgh SW—13% SNP
Kirkcaldy—6% SNP
SNP 6 up in Brown's seat
Ross Skye (Lib Dem)—5% SNP LEAD
Aberdeenshire West (Lib Dem held)—14% SNP
Dumfriesshire (Tory held)—TIED
5 up in Kennedys seat
4 English Marginals polled too.
2 for each of the big 2
Colne Valley—1% TORY lead
High Peak—1% LAB
Norwich North—1% LAB
Vale of Glamorgan—6% TORY
...and then the left will start to blame the evil Tory media even more no doubt.
Actually I have been saying EXACTLY that for months, check my posting history.
But don't let a little things like facts get in the way of a snide personal 'dig' eh?
YAWN.
PS. they are most certainly NOT "My Labour" nor are they "beloved" (as the last time I voted for them was in 1997, but then facts are obviously not your strong point)
they are just the only alternative with a chance of unseating the Tories, and that alone is good enough to get my vote.
Well, not having the powers of mind reading and foreseeing the future, (Like lots on here seem to have) I have to give way to your extra sensory perceptions.
Hope those Ashcroft numbers are somewhere close to accurate. To take Jim Murphy and the one Tory out would be sweet indeed for the SNP.
Those two alone make me find it REALLY find hard to beleive those polls. In the referendum, Dumfries & Galloway voted 66% No (the third-highest No voting area), and in those 2 seats the SNP were a distant 3rd & 4th place respectively in 2010. Is it really that concievable that the SNP are going to take these seats? Will surely be one of the most remarkable surges in support ever, especially considering how heavily against independence that area was. Two of the most anti-Independence constituencies where the SNP were well behind in 2010 supposedly becoming SNP gains just seems such an unlikely set of circumstances, and makes me want to take these polls with a grain of salt.
Wise move
I will remind you the next time you blame the Tory media.... it won't be long.