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Will Russia "invade" Ukraine

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    David (2)David (2) Posts: 20,632
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    pop on over to the cnn.com page and look at the design of the web page, "Is the world tough enough on Putin?" - right under it, the missing plane story, but the headline is tiny, but the sub text "Into the Abyss" is large, bold and clear. So it reads, straight after the Putin strap line.

    looks like a message to scare the public like they have not been scared before, well at least not since 1964 anyway.
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    AxtolAxtol Posts: 8,480
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    David (2) wrote: »
    A US battleship arrived in the Black sea last Thurs. It was reported today (BBC), that on Saturday, Russian over flew the ship at low level. This seems like a very unhealthy situation. President Obama must be having many sleepless nights. He would have been in direction communication with the Capt. Of the ship. As commander in chief he is responsible for their safety, and the President will always do whatever it takes to protect America’s armed forces - that includes opening fire in self defence. These actions would have put other Nato forces in the area on constant high alert, or a war footing if you prefer that terminology. For example, nearby is an American air craft carrier. I bet that’s running on alert as we speak with its jets in the air – if any Russian jets enter its protected zone they will be engaged by US aircraft. Then there are the submarines too. The radio and tv are now calling it the biggest east-west showdown since the end of the cold war, I think looking at the latest developments we are now beyond that point. This could be the worse situation since the Cuban missile crisis. Say one of the Russian jets fires a shot at an American ship. We have to, by the rules of engagement shoot down the jet or jets that made the attack. The Russians retaliate by sinking an American aircraft carrier (eg air launched anti-ship missile). Things could very quickly spiral out of control.

    What we are seeing from Russia are the actions of a war like nation. After Crimea, nobody believes any Russian calls for peace deals. The actions in E.Ukraine are a carbon copy of Crimea, with Russian undercover operatives (as proven today), and IMO local peoples who want to be closer to Russia and who have a very poor background and have been paid by Moscow to stir up trouble (quislings). If Russia is serious about any talks they will have to show a sizeable good will gesture, such as withdrawing half of the troops and armour that they have massed on the E.Ukraine border – withdrawing 100 troops out of 40,000+ like they did before is not going to convince anyone. Even China abstained in the last UN vote. I think the time has now come for President Obama to call on any and all experts in dealing with an uncooperative Russia, eg from the past, or even from the other side the house - do it in secret if you have to.

    How could the Americans possibly be self defence when they are the aggressor? The Americans are only in the Black Sea to try and provoke Russia into doing something foolish so they can justify military force. They have no real case to claim self defence. This is exactly what they were outraged about Russia doing in Crimea. Both nations are talented at this sort of thing you stick your military assets as close to the country you want to attack you do fly pasts and "routine military exercises" which just happen to be played out close to or even over the border. No nation will be happy with hostile military assets conducting exercises close to their border because any one of them could be a cover for a surprise invasion. The Americans will be trying to annoy the Russians and get in their faces at every opportunity but the Russians are experts in this having done exactly the same to Ukraine last month. The way that both America and Russia are acting right now is like a bully who antagonizes someone and gets in their face all the time and feigns throwing a punch and when the victim hits back out of instinct the bully complains about the "unprovoked attack".
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    David (2)David (2) Posts: 20,632
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    Axtol wrote: »
    How could the Americans possibly be self defence when they are the aggressor? The Americans are only in the Black Sea to try and provoke Russia into doing something foolish so they can justify military force. They have no real case to claim self defence. This is exactly what they were outraged about Russia doing in Crimea. Both nations are talented at this sort of thing you stick your military assets as close to the country you want to attack you do fly pasts and "routine military exercises" which just happen to be played out close to or even over the border. No nation will be happy with hostile military assets conducting exercises close to their border because any one of them could be a cover for a surprise invasion. The Americans will be trying to annoy the Russians and get in their faces at every opportunity but the Russians are experts in this having done exactly the same to Ukraine last month. The way that both America and Russia are acting right now is like a bully who antagonizes someone and gets in their face all the time and feigns throwing a punch and when the victim hits back out of instinct the bully complains about the "unprovoked attack".

    erm, who just took over Crimea "by the back door" or was I dreaming that?

    So you have a Russia who is striking out, we don't know what Putins end game is here. We can do nothing at all, sit back, let Putin walk into all of Ukraine. For all we know, Putin may see that as a sign that he can get away with going further - do you want to risk the Russian army entering other European countries without even a show of force? Maybe you would be happy to let Poland go to the dogs too? Or, maybe, though there is no guarantee, we can impose sanctions (inc the next round of tougher ones) together with a show of force and hope that the next move is to one he cant take.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 9,720
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    David (2) wrote: »
    A US battleship arrived in the Black sea last Thurs.

    What is a US battleship doing in the Black Sea?
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    David (2)David (2) Posts: 20,632
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    The USS Donald Cook (source: CNN web site)

    The Navy warship USS Donald Cook is scheduled to enter the Black Sea no later than Thursday as part of the latest U.S. military effort to demonstrate support for Eastern European allies concerned about Russia's troop buildup along its border with Ukraine.

    The was Thursday, last btw. The encounter with Russian jets was Saturday.
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    gratuitousgratuitous Posts: 1,171
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    In the words of Mr. McEnroe you cannot be serious.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV1LzXf1TKQ

    I would like to see Samantha Power don a headband and a pair of shorts, and do that performance to Churkin at the UN. would suit her better than the facile drawling approach..
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    Russia is prepared for international cooperation to stabilize the situation in Ukraine, including at the possible four-party talks in Geneva. It has consistently striven for dialogue ever since the obliteration of democracy in Ukraine. The subsequent events in Crimea were a reaction to that action. Since those events, the west has refused to talk.

    The current Russian position is that holding the talks on Thursday depends on the decisions that Kiev is now taking "under the auspices of Washington." Lavrov warned Kerry on Saturday that the meeting, as well as any further cooperation on the issue, would be foiled if Kiev resorted to using force against protesters. William Hague, quote, "believes" Russian soldiers are in Ukraine. But, Crimea aside, the only proof of external involvement is that of America from Victoria Nuland and others before democracy was overturned to the visit by the Head of the CIA.

    The entire population of the EU, including the British, is being represented by the wife of YouGov opinion poll boss, Peter Kellner. Labour, and elected by no one, she is Baroness Cathy Ashton who has called dictatorially for Russian troops to be pulled away from inside Russia's own border in line with the undemocratic Ukraine President. Tellingly she has not asked for them to leave East Ukraine because she hasn't got any proof that they are in East Ukraine.

    Lies, propaganda and elementary levels of diplomatic nous exist in the entirety of the western position where ordinarily there would be sanity. They are accompanied by Putin paranoia, rabid xenophobia and the downright cranky yank obsessions about Commies in a place where real Communists haven't been in charge for decades.

    And then there are the Alice in Wonderland preferences for regime change by the laws of the jungle. The "values" favoured by belligerent, cod academics. One of the main ones is American and another is New British. Both are generationally post hippy and each lacks the personal character that may have come from a spell doing National Service. Wholly typical of their type and age, they have devoted their entire professional adult lives perfecting the appearance of serious intellectualism and excessive toughness. The reason is no more substantial than to counter shame about their own perceived drippiness in youth and it is on that our so-called international policy (un)hinges.

    What could turn the current events into a genuinely serious business is not a strong belief in the wrongness of Russia. It is the knowledge in western leaders and their post WW2 cronies that they are in the wrong. The double whammy is that they are almost certain to lose the support of three quarters of their populations for their stance within a matter of days. Such a unique situation may prove impossible for their fragile egos to bear without it all showing in the most acute strategic instability and a dangerous other-worldliness not seen since the days of LSD.
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    David (2)David (2) Posts: 20,632
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    well, for a start, the EU doesn't do anything on matters like this without first getting the go light from the US. The EU doesn't run the world. The text you write there about the EU rep saying Russian troops must move back is the same line as from Washington.
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    gratuitousgratuitous Posts: 1,171
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    Several days after the UN Security Council resolution was vetoed by Russia, the United Nations General Assembly subsequently voted by 100 votes to 11 (with 58 abstentions) in favor of a non-binding statement opposing Russia's annexation of the peninsula

    And there were 25 no shows..so it was far from the 'united front' and 'isolated Russia' that was touted by Ms Power et al - barely half of the assembly voted for the statement.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,495
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    gratuitous wrote: »
    And there were 25 no shows..so it was far from the 'united front' and 'isolated Russia' that was touted by Ms Power et al - barely half of the assembly voted for the statement.

    Furthermore the BRICS countries which apart from Russia include China, India, Brazil and South Africa have stated their support for Russia.
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    AxtolAxtol Posts: 8,480
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    David (2) wrote: »
    So you have a Russia who is striking out, we don't know what Putins end game is here. We can do nothing at all, sit back, let Putin walk into all of Ukraine. For all we know, Putin may see that as a sign that he can get away with going further - do you want to risk the Russian army entering other European countries without even a show of force? Maybe you would be happy to let Poland go to the dogs too? Or, maybe, though there is no guarantee, we can impose sanctions (inc the next round of tougher ones) together with a show of force and hope that the next move is to one he cant take.

    Putin can say that the Russian army was only acting to protect civilians whereas the Americans are just here to provoke and cause trouble. If you aren't worried that NATO will keep attacking nations until they are stopped why is it different for Putin or do you believe that only NATO are telling the truth when they invade a country to protect civilians from an alleged threat? What's most likely (both with NATO and the Russians) is that any threats are greatly exaggerated or even completely made up. The Iraq 45 minute claim is the one that comes to mind right now. Like it or not Putin is only copying what we have already done many more times than him. The Americans have been causing revolutions for years with agent provocateurs and military interventions but now that someone else seems to be doing it it's apparently not fair.
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    gratuitousgratuitous Posts: 1,171
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    David (2) wrote: »
    erm, who just took over Crimea "by the back door" or was I dreaming that?

    So you have a Russia who is striking out, we don't know what Putins end game is here. We can do nothing at all, sit back, let Putin walk into all of Ukraine. For all we know, Putin may see that as a sign that he can get away with going further - do you want to risk the Russian army entering other European countries without even a show of force? Maybe you would be happy to let Poland go to the dogs too? Or, maybe, though there is no guarantee, we can impose sanctions (inc the next round of tougher ones) together with a show of force and hope that the next move is to one he cant take.

    There is a lot of breathless fantasy about what the baddie Putin will do next..maybe he would not stop at Poland (and nuclear war with Nato) but roll over Germany as payback for the mean things that Merkel said about him..and then France never puts up much of a fight..and soon afterward the skies over London would be black with Russian paratroopers..

    At the moment, we have reports that Ukraine special forces are refusing to re-take by force the buildings occupied by protesters as well as reports of resignations in the face of such 'illegal' orders from Kiev. I suspect also that the armed forces of Ukraine are generally not willing to fight for this illegal coup leadership.

    However there do seem to be forces at play in this situation which do want some sort of confrontation - possibly the US as a ploy to suck europe into a ruinous economic war with Russia. In any case, the chances of Russian forces going further than the Dnieper river seem to me to be in the realms of the aforementioned fantasy.
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    LateralthinkingLateralthinking Posts: 8,027
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    David (2) wrote: »
    well, for a start, the EU doesn't do anything on matters like this without first getting the go light from the US. The EU doesn't run the world. The text you write there about the EU rep saying Russian troops must move back is the same line as from Washington.

    Yes I agree. That is why this business has led to me dramatically changing my 40 year long position of supporting Britain's membership of EU and indeed also mulling over NATO. It has made me realise that the interconnections in the system were a disaster that was bound to happen. I should have reached that conclusion long before 2004 but I think many of us were sleepwalking. Where there should have been loud alarm bells there were merely qualms.

    One of the aspects of this situation I find really diabolical is the way in which the Americans upped the anti in the last couple of days of the Winter Olympics. It was all congratulations and the whitest of smiles for the Russians in Sochi while in parallel the darkest game plan kicked off in Ukraine. The two-faced sneakiness of it all is absolutely nauseating and it is almost as if they couldn't even cope egotistically with a successful sporting event there. With that excruciating level of juvenile petty-mindedness, it is small wonder they have created utter chaos and contempt.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 4,074
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    gratuitous wrote: »
    At the moment, we have reports that Ukraine special forces are refusing to re-take by force the buildings occupied by protesters as well as reports of resignations in the face of such 'illegal' orders from Kiev. I suspect also that the armed forces of Ukraine are generally not willing to fight for this illegal coup leadership.
    Just as well the government in Kiev have set up the national guard then with right minded military veterans and the likes of right sector violent far right thugs given military weapons and police powers to protect Ukraine from internal and external threats. And the government is rebuilding the Ukrane armed forces from scratch, as the existing armed forces have been mismanged. Which I guess means they are replacing officers with those they trust.
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    GreatGodPanGreatGodPan Posts: 53,186
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    Meilie wrote: »
    What is a US battleship doing in the Black Sea?

    My thought exactly.

    I wonder if there is Russian battleship in the Gulf of Mexico........
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    snukrsnukr Posts: 19,729
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    Russia is prepared for international cooperation to stabilize the situation in Ukraine, including at the possible four-party talks in Geneva. It has consistently striven for dialogue ever since the obliteration of democracy in Ukraine. The subsequent events in Crimea were a reaction to that action. Since those events, the west has refused to talk.

    The current Russian position is that holding the talks on Thursday depends on the decisions that Kiev is now taking "under the auspices of Washington." Lavrov warned Kerry on Saturday that the meeting, as well as any further cooperation on the issue, would be foiled if Kiev resorted to using force against protesters. William Hague, quote, "believes" Russian soldiers are in Ukraine. But, Crimea aside, the only proof of external involvement is that of America from Victoria Nuland and others before democracy was overturned to the visit by the Head of the CIA.

    The entire population of the EU, including the British, is being represented by the wife of YouGov opinion poll boss, Peter Kellner. Labour, and elected by no one, she is Baroness Cathy Ashton who has called dictatorially for Russian troops to be pulled away from inside Russia's own border in line with the undemocratic Ukraine President. Tellingly she has not asked for them to leave East Ukraine because she hasn't got any proof that they are in East Ukraine.

    Lies, propaganda and elementary levels of diplomatic nous exist in the entirety of the western position where ordinarily there would be sanity. They are accompanied by Putin paranoia, rabid xenophobia and the downright cranky yank obsessions about Commies in a place where real Communists haven't been in charge for decades.

    And then there are the Alice in Wonderland preferences for regime change by the laws of the jungle. The "values" favoured by belligerent, cod academics. One of the main ones is American and another is New British. Both are generationally post hippy and each lacks the personal character that may have come from a spell doing National Service. Wholly typical of their type and age, they have devoted their entire professional adult lives perfecting the appearance of serious intellectualism and excessive toughness. The reason is no more substantial than to counter shame about their own perceived drippiness in youth and it is on that our so-called international policy (un)hinges.

    What could turn the current events into a genuinely serious business is not a strong belief in the wrongness of Russia. It is the knowledge in western leaders and their post WW2 cronies that they are in the wrong. The double whammy is that they are almost certain to lose the support of three quarters of their populations for their stance within a matter of days. Such a unique situation may prove impossible for their fragile egos to bear without it all showing in the most acute strategic instability and a dangerous other-worldliness not seen since the days of LSD.
    Russian soldiers are in Ukraine, Putin has done exactly the same in Eastern Ukraine as he did in Crimea, he's sent in soldiers in plain uniforms with no insignia to try and stir up seperatist feelings. His devious plan may not work this time though as support for joining Russia in Eastern Ukraine is much less than it was in Crimea.

    Lies and propaganda is exactly what Putin has been feeding the Russian population, stories about Ukraine being overrun with neo-nazis and Russians being attacked, having their rights withdrawn and not being able to speak their own language, it's all absolute nonsense, Russians are in no more danger now in Ukraine than they were when Yanukovich was in control, he's acting like Hitler using the parhetic excuse of protecting Russian citizens as an excuse to invade.



    Russians are only interested in dialogue if it results in them getting what they want, that's Ukraine under their control. Why can't they let their neighbours live in peace and let them make their own descisions?
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    jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,999
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    It is all down to what the government in Kiev do. If they capitulate then Russia will achieve its objectives and Ukraine will become a federation with the east becoming autonomous and able to block any moves by Ukraine to join the EU or Nato. If they don't and send in forces to restore order they risk an armed conflict with Russia.
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    snukrsnukr Posts: 19,729
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    gratuitous wrote: »
    There is a lot of breathless fantasy about what the baddie Putin will do next..maybe he would not stop at Poland (and nuclear war with Nato) but roll over Germany as payback for the mean things that Merkel said about him..and then France never puts up much of a fight..and soon afterward the skies over London would be black with Russian paratroopers..

    At the moment, we have reports that Ukraine special forces are refusing to re-take by force the buildings occupied by protesters as well as reports of resignations in the face of such 'illegal' orders from Kiev. I suspect also that the armed forces of Ukraine are generally not willing to fight for this illegal coup leadership.

    However there do seem to be forces at play in this situation which do want some sort of confrontation - possibly the US as a ploy to suck europe into a ruinous economic war with Russia. In any case, the chances of Russian forces going further than the Dnieper river seem to me to be in the realms of the aforementioned fantasy.
    There's no fantasy, Putin is a baddie, he proved that when he illegally invaded Georgia, then Crimea and now Eastern Ukraine, not to mention the beatings, torture and killings of anybody who publicly opposes his authoritarian regime.
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    GreatGodPanGreatGodPan Posts: 53,186
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    snukr wrote: »
    There's no fantasy, Putin is a baddie, he proved that when he illegally invaded Georgia, then Crimea and now Eastern Ukraine, not to mention the beatings, torture and killings of anybody who publicly opposes his authoritarian regime.

    There is no "authoritarian regime" in Russia.

    As much as I dislike him and the brand of Capitalist state he represents the fact remains he is very popular in Russia.

    Such hyperbole as yours does little in adding anything to the discussion of a very tense situation.
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    jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,999
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    There is no "authoritarian regime" in Russia.

    As much as I dislike him and the brand of Capitalist state he represents the fact remains he is very popular in Russia.

    Such hyperbole as yours does little in adding anything to the discussion of a very tense situation.

    A somewhat hyperbolic claim and whether he is popular in Russia or not is irrelevant to that.
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    RecordPlayerRecordPlayer Posts: 22,648
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    There is no "authoritarian regime" in Russia.

    As much as I dislike him and the brand of Capitalist state he represents the fact remains he is very popular in Russia.

    Such hyperbole as yours does little in adding anything to the discussion of a very tense situation
    .



    What exactly do you add then? :D

    I agree with snukr. He's not exaggerating.
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    GreatGodPanGreatGodPan Posts: 53,186
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    jmclaugh wrote: »
    A somewhat hyperbolic claim and whether he is popular in Russia or not is irrelevant to that.

    Howso?
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    nottinghamcnottinghamc Posts: 11,929
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    My thought exactly.

    I wonder if there is Russian battleship in the Gulf of Mexico........

    The Russians have a battleship? The Russian surface fleet was a joke before communism collapsed, it's become worse since.
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    jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 63,999
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    The Russians have a battleship? The Russian surface fleet was a joke before communism collapsed, it's become worse since.

    Apparently it is in square J5.
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    VerenceVerence Posts: 104,590
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