Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 2)

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  • BoyardBoyard Posts: 5,393
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    I think the negativity about a Labour-SNP coalition is hurting Labour.
  • Chirpy_ChickenChirpy_Chicken Posts: 1,740
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    Boyard wrote: »
    I think the negativity about a Labour-SNP coalition is hurting Labour.

    Yea and I dont think they are doing any about when they really should!. I sometimes think the labour party dont "get it"
  • AnnsyreAnnsyre Posts: 109,504
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    Boyard wrote: »
    I think the negativity about a Labour-SNP coalition is hurting Labour.

    I agree.
  • BoyardBoyard Posts: 5,393
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    Yea and I dont think they are doing any about when they really should!. I sometimes think the labour party dont "get it"

    What do you suggest they do? Everything seems kind of a lose-lose to me. They don't want to sever ties with them and rule anything out as they might rely on them, but pushing up the positives of a trade and supply deal (SNP supporting more progressive policies rather than relying on stories for votes) will seem like an admittance it will happen and stop even more Scottish swing voters bothering to vote Labour if they think they'll still get them anyway. It's a really hard one.
  • Chirpy_ChickenChirpy_Chicken Posts: 1,740
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    Boyard wrote: »
    What do you suggest they do? Everything seems kind of a lose-lose to me. They don't want to sever ties with them and rule anything out as they might rely on them, but pushing up the positives of a trade and supply deal (SNP supporting more progressive policies rather than relying on stories for votes) will seem like an admittance it will happen and stop even more Scottish swing voters bothering to vote Labour if they think they'll still get them anyway. It's a really hard one.

    Quite!, it could even lead to the Tories even winning a out right majority if people are worried about it.
  • InspirationInspiration Posts: 62,702
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    MattN wrote: »
    We're beginning to see quite a few Tory leads

    Still too early to call a trend change but March has been a bad month for Labour no doubt about that. They will be worried because nothing stands out as being a bad event for them.. it's mostly been EM on the attack over various issues. I still think the success or failure of CON is heavily linked to UKIP. Labour are adrift on their own.

    One card CON has yet to play that will surely play into their favour.. the budget.
  • MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    Pat_Smith wrote: »
    Oh, OK.

    I thought it was because they showed mainly Tory leads and he'd slunk off into a corner somewhere.

    He must be apoplectic.
  • wavy-davywavy-davy Posts: 7,122
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    Yea and I dont think they are doing any about when they really should!. I sometimes think the labour party dont "get it"

    What can they do? If the polls are correct they'll need the SNP to have any chance of power.
  • MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    wavy-davy wrote: »
    What can they do? If the polls are correct they'll need the SNP to have any chance of power.

    And you think English voters will be happy with that?
  • AnnsyreAnnsyre Posts: 109,504
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    Quite!, it could even lead to the Tories even winning a out right majority if people are worried about it.

    There would be a huge backlash. One one hand you would end up with group of people in Scotland who want to be free of any interference from the UK government and want total independence. On the other there will be a group of Scottish M.P.s sitting in the UK parliament who want to protect Scottish only interests and who will be voting on matters that affect English only institutions and matters.

    If Miliband did get elected and was relying on the Scottish M.P.s to keep him in power he would be in for a very rocky ride with massive opposition every inch of the way.
  • PuterkidPuterkid Posts: 9,794
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    It seems like Milliband has been invisible for weeks, not sure if that's being ignored by the media, or if he can't stand the heat. So disappointing either way, as it's given the horrendous Tory's a leg up.
  • InspirationInspiration Posts: 62,702
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    Puterkid wrote: »
    It seems like Milliband has been invisible for weeks, not sure if that's being ignored by the media, or if he can't stand the heat. So disappointing either way, as it's given the horrendous Tory's a leg up.

    I don't think he's been invisible as such I think the problem is Labour aren't getting any traction because they don't have a central theme to talk about. It used to be the cost of living crisis but the changes in the economy have all but killed that one off. He talks about the NHS but can a party really win an election purely on the NHS? So now he's having to talk about other minor issues such as tax avoidance and debates. But there is no central theme. I notice it in PMQs when Labour MPs don't seem to have a solid core message. They're all over the place. Where as the CON message is straight forward and clear.. don't wreak the economy by voting Labour. And they also can reel off their positive figures in regards to jobs & the economy. Which is effective.

    So rather than being ignored.. I fear he's ran out of things to say. Anyway I'm risking de-railing the thread with the above. Start another thread if you fancy a longer debate on it.
  • David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    Puterkid wrote: »
    It seems like Milliband has been invisible for weeks, not sure if that's being ignored by the media, or if he can't stand the heat. So disappointing either way, as it's given the horrendous Tory's a leg up.

    I see it completely the other way. The more invisible Miliband is, the better Labour's chances are. Have him quoted saying stuff - which appears to be the currently strategy - but don't FGS show him.

    Don't forget; this is the guy who is the most unpopular party leader ever. And it's not for want of trying , we've had any number of "Miliband relaunches" - I'm guessing 8 or 9? Even among Labour voters, support for Miliband is depressingly low.
  • BoyardBoyard Posts: 5,393
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    Puterkid wrote: »
    It seems like Milliband has been invisible for weeks, not sure if that's being ignored by the media, or if he can't stand the heat. So disappointing either way, as it's given the horrendous Tory's a leg up.

    This has been his problem from
    The start really hadn't it? He gains some momentum then disappears nowhere to be seem. He should be on every TV program/newspaper going and all over the place at the moment, building up his profile. Cameron was everywhere at this point in 2010.
  • BoyardBoyard Posts: 5,393
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    wavy-davy wrote: »

    On the contrary, pictures like that is exactly why he needs to speak otherwise the newspapers puerile photos taken at an awkward moment is all they'll know of him.
  • MattNMattN Posts: 2,534
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    Puterkid wrote: »
    It seems like Milliband has been invisible for weeks, not sure if that's being ignored by the media, or if he can't stand the heat. So disappointing either way, as it's given the horrendous Tory's a leg up.

    He spends too much time talking about trivial issues that aren't going to win him an election.

    Baseing an election campaign on voting Labour because we're not the Tories never works and theirs every Chance it won't work in may
  • allaortaallaorta Posts: 19,050
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    Changing tack a little, anyone think Conservatives are likely to manage the economy twice as well as Labour?
  • oathyoathy Posts: 32,638
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    Heres the latest Election result forecast.

    Con 289, Lab 277, SNP 38, LD 24, DUP 8, UKIP 1

    Not sure about that UKIP number tbh, Personally Labour need a serious rethink how they are trying to convince people in Scotland about trusting them once more because at the moment its a lost cause
  • paulschapmanpaulschapman Posts: 35,536
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    Mr_XcX wrote: »
    That means nothing.

    I am certain a vast majority of the 96% would have loved to see the debates. They just know Cameron is a coward and has successfully sabotaged it. Making a panto 7 party slagging match.

    Doubt it has anything to do with cowardice - more a reflection of what happened last time, and there is no real benefit for the Conservatives in doing them.

    Back in 2010 Nick Clegg did very well out of the debates and hit Conservative support. This time around Milliband is a poor debater and most people know it - so from that point of view there is a large potential downside but little or no upside.

    As a Conservative Voter I might want to see Milliband stuffed - but it will make absolutely no difference to how I vote simply because I don't want Malliband or Balls anywhere near the countries money - not after what happened the last time they were in an advisory capacity in that respect.
  • Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    Doubt it has anything to do with cowardice - more a reflection of what happened last time, and there is no real benefit for the Conservatives in doing them.

    Back in 2010 Nick Clegg did very well out of the debates and hit Conservative support. This time around Milliband is a poor debater and most people know it - so from that point of view there is a large potential downside but little or no upside.

    As a Conservative Voter I might want to see Milliband stuffed - but it will make absolutely no difference to how I vote simply because I don't want Malliband or Balls anywhere near the countries money - not after what happened the last time they were in an advisory capacity in that respect.

    Surely then Cameron should have jumped at the chance to humiliate him a week before a general election?
  • blueisthecolourblueisthecolour Posts: 20,125
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    oathy wrote: »
    Heres the latest Election result forecast.

    Con 289, Lab 277, SNP 38, LD 24, DUP 8, UKIP 1

    Not sure about that UKIP number tbh, Personally Labour need a serious rethink how they are trying to convince people in Scotland about trusting them once more because at the moment its a lost cause

    I wonder if we'll have a government two months from today . .

    With those numbers I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a Tory/LD/DUP coalition. The LD's will be too disheartened to ask for much.
  • Bingo_Bingo_ Posts: 1,077
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    The polls will be deceptive this year. Both UKIP and the SNP/Greens will eat away at the Tory and Labour vote respectively.

    National headline poll figures aren't going to be anywhere near as accurate this time as they was last because there's so many crucial, seat-by-seat factors and variables in different parts of the country that will cost both Labour and the Tories seats in marginal constituencies.

    For example a strong UKIP candidate in the south of England could well eat into the Tory vote and produce an unexpected Labour victory, similarly a strong Green candidate elsewhere in the country in a marginal constituency could detract disproportionately from the Labour vote and allow a Tory victory in that constituency - ditto Labour/SNP in Scotland.

    I don't think we can read much into this national polls because of the fourth/fifth party influence that these polls aren't really set up to countenance.
  • wavy-davywavy-davy Posts: 7,122
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    With those numbers I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a Tory/LD/DUP coalition. The LD's will be too disheartened to ask for much.
    I doubt the LD's will support another coalition govt given the battering they'll probably have just had off the back off the last coalition.
  • ianmattianmatt Posts: 1,325
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    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    Surely then Cameron should have jumped at the chance to humiliate him a week before a general election?

    Little chance of humiliation in a very staged, pre-prepared debate. In terms of leading an opposition producing a clear plan for government Miliband has been a disaster.

    In terms of producing a polished staged media performance and playing to the camera's Miliband is well good enough not to put a foot wrong. As are Cameron, Clegg and Farage, after the last election Cameron is sensible to stay away, they gave Clegg a boost last time, no need to risk the same with Miliband.

    Fighting the election on his record of turning the economy around is his best option, even if it took a little longer than desired.
This discussion has been closed.