Originally I thought the coalition would last to about late 2012 early 2013 at the latest.After a few months I reluctantly took the view it had a strongish chance of lasting 5 years-Now I am reverting back to a premature collaspe 2012 at the latest.The political dynamics are fascinating.
I sticking with coalition going the full 5 years. Why would Clegg want to quit ?
But....
It'll be dynamics within the Coalition which will be interesting. If AV is 'no', will Cameron need to listen Clegg and LibDems ? Or will Cameron offer more concessions to their junior coalition partners, fearing a walk out ?
I sticking with coalition going the full 5 years. Why would Clegg want to quit ?
But....
It'll be dynamics within the Coalition which will be interesting. If AV is 'no', will Cameron need to listen Clegg and LibDems ? Or will Cameron offer more concessions to their junior coalition partners, fearing a walk out ?
I agree. The dynamics will be interesting. But what are the prospects of the current LibDems and the Conservatives forming a permanent merger? The "true" LibDems would obviously desert the party and form their own new version, but if the AV vote goes against the LibDems there is a chance of imploding within their own party.
If it goes in favour of them, the LibDems would temporarily believe they have the upper hand over their senior partners but questions within the Conservative party will most definetely start being asked. It certainly will be an interesting few weeks, but I believe the Coalition will remain intact. Neither party can afford it not to.
The austerity measures being carried out by Osborne are proving to be the correct choice for this nation as well as for future glory.This can be used in the future to get the populace back into the fold and to return a government with Right-wing values and responsibility back into the soul of Britain.
The coalition will hold - they have no choice but to stick with it. No Lib Dem wants an election now - they would be massacred. Plus the fixed term parliament bill will make it almost impossible to dissolve the coaltion and have an election.
Coalition here until 2015 - sorry folks if that's not what you want to hear!
Agreed.
But the odds are stacked against Cameron improving on his 36% share of the May 2010 vote.
Both Thatcher and Blair were re-elected on a reduced shared of the national vote when they re-presented themselves to the electorate. And they had the advantage of choosing the election date. Both went to the polls 4 years after their first win.
And a government which goes the full 5 years can suffer fatigue. The McMillan/Home in 1964, Callghan in 1979, Major in 1992 and Brown in 2010 all hung on for the full 5 years and lost. In fact, I think, in the last 110 years, no government has won a second term after serving a full 5 years.
My guess is that 2015 will produce another hung parliament. And at this stage, my guess is Cameron will be heading the largest party.
Cameron may regret choosing 5 year fixed term parliaments.
But what are the prospects of the current LibDems and the Conservatives forming a permanent merger?
I'm starting to think this too.
For reasons I have stated elsewhere, think 2015 wil produce another hung parliament with the Tories being the largest group. Their choice of junior partner could be the LibDems. Again.
How does any of that support the idea that threads like this are pathetic? Whether or not the coalition is falling apart is surely a valid topic for discussion, even if you think it isn't.
It's fact though. Threads like this are pathetic.
People on here moan when Tories and Lib Dem agree on things.When they don't agree then people on here talk about how the coalition will implode
Yet, every Tory and Lib Dem knows that this event has been a year in the making. We all knew that the two parties would disagree on this issue and campaign against each other. In campaigns a lot of BS flys about on all sides.
I think people on here are idiots if they thing that either result will lead to the destruction of the current government or the campaign will somehow cause splits.
Threads like this are wishful thinking from behalf of Labour people hoping the coalition will end early.
We've had threads on here about the Coalition falling apart / not lasting since the first couple of weeks after the election. The threads are generally started by Labour supporters either keen to drive a wedge between the two parties or hoping to God something will happen to cause the Coalition to crash. It only takes one MP (invariably Vince Cable) to get the threads springing up all over again.
It'll last the full five years. The final year will be a lot of fun to watch as both parties tell us how different they are from each other and Labour tell us that they're the only party with any integrity.
People on here moan when Tories and Lib Dem agree on things.When they don't agree then people on here talk about how the coalition will implode
Yet, every Tory and Lib Dem knows that this event has been a year in the making. We all knew that the two parties would disagree on this issue and campaign against each other. In campaigns a lot of BS flys about on all sides.
I think people on here are idiots if they thing that either result will lead to the destruction of the current government or the campaign will somehow cause splits.
Threads like this are wishful thinking from behalf of Labour people hoping the coalition will end early.
Threads like this are discussions. The thread is not an opinion. Your "fact" is not a fact.
The coalition agreement contained a referendum on AV but it always allowed for the Tories to campaign against it. If the result is a NO the Lib Dems can hardly complain and I can't see then walking away from the coalition just because that happens. They would gain nothing by doing so as a GE would I think see them lose a lot of support. The overriding view would be they didn't get what they wanted so they threw the toys out of the pram. It would do little for their reputation or that of coalition government.
Threads like this are discussions. The thread is not an opinion. Your "fact" is not a fact.
It is a fact though. How can you disagree with that I've said? Think with your head and not your heart.Yes this thread creates discussion as it's on the second page now.
People on here moan when Lib Dems and Tories agree, yes?
People on here moan when Tories and Lib Dems disagree on AV. yes?
People on here think that because of the difference on this issue that the coalition is falling apart, yes?
People on here, like you, don't seem to get it that this vote has been pretty much a year in the making and we all know the two sides won't agree on AV, yes?
When fighting an election or referendum then you get all sort of campaign tactics that are not nice and both sides are guilty of that, yes?
It is a fact though. How can you disagree with that I've said? Think with your head and not your heart.Yes this thread creates discussion as it's on the second page now.
People on here moan when Lib Dems and Tories agree, yes?
People on here moan when Tories and Lib Dems disagree on AV. yes?
People on here think that because of the difference on this issue that the coalition is falling apart, yes?
People on here, like you, don't seem to get it that this vote has been pretty much a year in the making and we all know the two sides won't agree on AV, yes?
When fighting an election or referendum then you get all sort of campaign tactics that are not nice and both sides are guilty of that, yes?
See my point.
I've just slam dunked you, thank you very much
your satisfaction with your response is not the acid test.
And no you have only put an arguement against the OP's premis not against the existance of such a thread on a discussion forum.
The LibDems have already lost their Labour supporters, if they pull out of the ,they will lose their new found Tory admirers too.
If the coalition splits the Tories will be back in opposition, the Lib Dem's will be annihilated and Labour will be back in power implementing 80% of the cuts, the Tories had to do, so no more march's Mr Milliband.
In other words Labour will be forced to fix its own mess, so the Tories can win outright next time and continue with their policies, without Lib Dem input.
Of course the Lib Dems could form a new coalition with Labour rather than force a general election. Trouble is, the parliamentary arithmetic hasn't changed. They would need every one who isn't a Tory to back them, not just Labour.
The LibDems have already lost their Labour supporters, if they pull out of the ,they will lose their new found Tory admirers too.
If the coalition splits the Tories will be back in opposition, the Lib Dem's will be annihilated and Labour will be back in power implementing 80% of the cuts, the Tories had to do, so no more march's Mr Milliband.
In other words Labour will be forced to fix its own mess, so the Tories can win outright next time and continue with their policies, without Lib Dem input.
Of course the Lib Dems could form a new coalition with Labour rather than force a general election. Trouble is, the parliamentary arithmetic hasn't changed. They would need every one who isn't a Tory to back them, not just Labour.
A fairly good analysis I think. The Lib Dems have to see the coalition through for their survival. It would look bad on them if they can't be relied on when things don't go their way.
If Labour got back in early, they would have to put through most of the same cuts, and they would face an enormous backlash as a result as they have opposed all cuts so far.
The coalition will hold - they have no choice but to stick with it. No Lib Dem wants an election now - they would be massacred. Plus the fixed term parliament bill will make it almost impossible to dissolve the coaltion and have an election.
Coalition here until 2015 - sorry folks if that's not what you want to hear!
I thought the same but then thinking more about it, I thought they may redeem themselves to an extent if they get rid of Clegg as leader and either go for an orderly earlier election with their "support" until it happens but on a much tougher/critical basis or they get rid of Clegg and walk out of the coalition.
The Tories wold probably want another election but it might be better for them they carried on a while as a Minority Government. I think Labour would eb the favourites to be the largest party easy if their was an election if not a small outright majority.
But the odds are stacked against Cameron improving on his 36% share of the May 2010 vote.
Both Thatcher and Blair were re-elected on a reduced shared of the national vote when they re-presented themselves to the electorate. And they had the advantage of choosing the election date. Both went to the polls 4 years after their first win.
And a government which goes the full 5 years can suffer fatigue. The McMillan/Home in 1964, Callghan in 1979, Major in 1992 and Brown in 2010 all hung on for the full 5 years and lost. In fact, I think, in the last 110 years, no government has won a second term after serving a full 5 years.
My guess is that 2015 will produce another hung parliament. And at this stage, my guess is Cameron will be heading the largest party.
Cameron may regret choosing 5 year fixed term parliaments.
But that's a long way off...
What's to stop the next Government changing this to 4 years? Or just repealing that law? 4 years would be preferable, not 5, its just too long.
If that is true, that is a hell of an judgement on this country
So, that's the way it is.
Why did Clegg rush in to the Referendum so soon? He has 5 years as we are constantly being told this Government will run for. He could have played the long game and gradually sold it to the people.
The lib dems are polling very low. If they pull out of the coalition and force a general election many of them are likely to lose their seats to labour in the north and Tory in the south. It would be like turkeys voting for xmas.
I don't see the lib dems as a risk to the coalition splitting but the tory right. If Cameron moves to far left I can see the tory right causing problems which could cause a GE in about 2013. The economy could be on the up by then and a tory majority could be possible then 2 yrs into the new parliament a leadership challenge from the right could succeed as Cameron isn't as popular as people think with the wider Tory party though they do see him as a vote winner.
The lib dems are polling very low. If they pull out of the coalition and force a general election many of them are likely to lose their seats to labour in the north and Tory in the south. It would be like turkeys voting for xmas.
I don't see the lib dems as a risk to the coalition splitting but the tory right. If Cameron moves to far left I can see the tory right causing problems which could cause a GE in about 2013. The economy could be on the up by then and a tory majority could be possible then 2 yrs into the new parliament a leadership challenge from the right could succeed as Cameron isn't as popular as people think with the wider Tory party though they do see him as a vote winner.
If that happens and according to what Cameron wanted in the run up to the last election, it would trigger a GE as we he wanted a GE if a new PM took over.
I don't see the lib dems as a risk to the coalition splitting but the tory right. If Cameron moves to far left I can see the tory right causing problems which could cause a GE in about 2013. The economy could be on the up by then and a tory majority could be possible then 2 yrs into the new parliament a leadership challenge from the right could succeed as Cameron isn't as popular as people think with the wider Tory party though they do see him as a vote winner.
I think this is an issue for the Tories because they really don't have anyone else that can bring votes to the party - the other options are mostly unknown to the public with the exception of ex-leaders like Hague and Duncan-Smith (who both failed once before) and Howard, who is electoral poison.
4 years would be preferable, not 5, its just too long.
Seem to remember fixed term parliaments being discussed in the election. Foolishly, I assumed politicians wanted to fix the terms to 4 year like just about every other place. Not 5 years.
If we stick with 5 year fixed term parliaments, over the next 100 years we will have just 19/20 more general elections.
Since 1910, we've had 24 elections. Two more, if wars had not intervened. That's five fewer oppotunities to cast our judgements on governments.
The coalition will hold - they have no choice but to stick with it. No Lib Dem wants an election now - they would be massacred. Plus the fixed term parliament bill will make it almost impossible to dissolve the coaltion and have an election.
Coalition here until 2015 - sorry folks if that's not what you want to hear!
Indeed if you want a taste of what awaits the Lib Dems from an early election then watch the results of the Scottish General Election come in.
At the moment the question is whether they will even hold fourth place let alone be in a position to hold the balance of power. Some polls give them as few as 6 seats.
They are in this until the bitter end in 2015 now.
Indeed if you want a taste of what awaits the Lib Dems from an early election then watch the results of the Scottish General Election come in.
At the moment the question is whether they will even hold fourth place let alone be in a position to hold the balance of power. Some polls give them as few as 6 seats.
They are in this until the bitter end in 2015 now.
I do feel this is like the period of 1992 - 1997. It just dragged and dragged. The LibDems are finished either way. All they have to decide is whether they want to end the misery now or when ever in the near future.
Comments
If that is true, that is a hell of an judgement on this country
I sticking with coalition going the full 5 years. Why would Clegg want to quit ?
But....
It'll be dynamics within the Coalition which will be interesting. If AV is 'no', will Cameron need to listen Clegg and LibDems ? Or will Cameron offer more concessions to their junior coalition partners, fearing a walk out ?
I agree. The dynamics will be interesting. But what are the prospects of the current LibDems and the Conservatives forming a permanent merger? The "true" LibDems would obviously desert the party and form their own new version, but if the AV vote goes against the LibDems there is a chance of imploding within their own party.
If it goes in favour of them, the LibDems would temporarily believe they have the upper hand over their senior partners but questions within the Conservative party will most definetely start being asked. It certainly will be an interesting few weeks, but I believe the Coalition will remain intact. Neither party can afford it not to.
Agreed.
But the odds are stacked against Cameron improving on his 36% share of the May 2010 vote.
Both Thatcher and Blair were re-elected on a reduced shared of the national vote when they re-presented themselves to the electorate. And they had the advantage of choosing the election date. Both went to the polls 4 years after their first win.
And a government which goes the full 5 years can suffer fatigue. The McMillan/Home in 1964, Callghan in 1979, Major in 1992 and Brown in 2010 all hung on for the full 5 years and lost. In fact, I think, in the last 110 years, no government has won a second term after serving a full 5 years.
My guess is that 2015 will produce another hung parliament. And at this stage, my guess is Cameron will be heading the largest party.
Cameron may regret choosing 5 year fixed term parliaments.
But that's a long way off...
I'm starting to think this too.
For reasons I have stated elsewhere, think 2015 wil produce another hung parliament with the Tories being the largest group. Their choice of junior partner could be the LibDems. Again.
It's fact though. Threads like this are pathetic.
People on here moan when Tories and Lib Dem agree on things.When they don't agree then people on here talk about how the coalition will implode
Yet, every Tory and Lib Dem knows that this event has been a year in the making. We all knew that the two parties would disagree on this issue and campaign against each other. In campaigns a lot of BS flys about on all sides.
I think people on here are idiots if they thing that either result will lead to the destruction of the current government or the campaign will somehow cause splits.
Threads like this are wishful thinking from behalf of Labour people hoping the coalition will end early.
It'll last the full five years. The final year will be a lot of fun to watch as both parties tell us how different they are from each other and Labour tell us that they're the only party with any integrity.
Threads like this are discussions. The thread is not an opinion. Your "fact" is not a fact.
It is a fact though. How can you disagree with that I've said? Think with your head and not your heart.Yes this thread creates discussion as it's on the second page now.
People on here moan when Lib Dems and Tories agree, yes?
People on here moan when Tories and Lib Dems disagree on AV. yes?
People on here think that because of the difference on this issue that the coalition is falling apart, yes?
People on here, like you, don't seem to get it that this vote has been pretty much a year in the making and we all know the two sides won't agree on AV, yes?
When fighting an election or referendum then you get all sort of campaign tactics that are not nice and both sides are guilty of that, yes?
See my point.
I've just slam dunked you, thank you very much
your satisfaction with your response is not the acid test.
And no you have only put an arguement against the OP's premis not against the existance of such a thread on a discussion forum.
Agreed.
People moaning is a fact.
People right to moan is a point of discussion.
If the coalition splits the Tories will be back in opposition, the Lib Dem's will be annihilated and Labour will be back in power implementing 80% of the cuts, the Tories had to do, so no more march's Mr Milliband.
In other words Labour will be forced to fix its own mess, so the Tories can win outright next time and continue with their policies, without Lib Dem input.
Of course the Lib Dems could form a new coalition with Labour rather than force a general election. Trouble is, the parliamentary arithmetic hasn't changed. They would need every one who isn't a Tory to back them, not just Labour.
A fairly good analysis I think. The Lib Dems have to see the coalition through for their survival. It would look bad on them if they can't be relied on when things don't go their way.
If Labour got back in early, they would have to put through most of the same cuts, and they would face an enormous backlash as a result as they have opposed all cuts so far.
I thought the same but then thinking more about it, I thought they may redeem themselves to an extent if they get rid of Clegg as leader and either go for an orderly earlier election with their "support" until it happens but on a much tougher/critical basis or they get rid of Clegg and walk out of the coalition.
The Tories wold probably want another election but it might be better for them they carried on a while as a Minority Government. I think Labour would eb the favourites to be the largest party easy if their was an election if not a small outright majority.
What's to stop the next Government changing this to 4 years? Or just repealing that law? 4 years would be preferable, not 5, its just too long.
So, that's the way it is.
Why did Clegg rush in to the Referendum so soon? He has 5 years as we are constantly being told this Government will run for. He could have played the long game and gradually sold it to the people.
AV = Clegg in many minds.
I don't see the lib dems as a risk to the coalition splitting but the tory right. If Cameron moves to far left I can see the tory right causing problems which could cause a GE in about 2013. The economy could be on the up by then and a tory majority could be possible then 2 yrs into the new parliament a leadership challenge from the right could succeed as Cameron isn't as popular as people think with the wider Tory party though they do see him as a vote winner.
If that happens and according to what Cameron wanted in the run up to the last election, it would trigger a GE as we he wanted a GE if a new PM took over.
I think this is an issue for the Tories because they really don't have anyone else that can bring votes to the party - the other options are mostly unknown to the public with the exception of ex-leaders like Hague and Duncan-Smith (who both failed once before) and Howard, who is electoral poison.
Yes, the law could be repealed or amended.
Seem to remember fixed term parliaments being discussed in the election. Foolishly, I assumed politicians wanted to fix the terms to 4 year like just about every other place. Not 5 years.
If we stick with 5 year fixed term parliaments, over the next 100 years we will have just 19/20 more general elections.
Since 1910, we've had 24 elections. Two more, if wars had not intervened. That's five fewer oppotunities to cast our judgements on governments.
4 year terms, please. Not 5.
Indeed if you want a taste of what awaits the Lib Dems from an early election then watch the results of the Scottish General Election come in.
At the moment the question is whether they will even hold fourth place let alone be in a position to hold the balance of power. Some polls give them as few as 6 seats.
They are in this until the bitter end in 2015 now.
I do feel this is like the period of 1992 - 1997. It just dragged and dragged. The LibDems are finished either way. All they have to decide is whether they want to end the misery now or when ever in the near future.