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There has never been an Apprentice winner who has Project Managed in Week 3
george.millman
Posts: 8,628 Forum Member
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Every other week has had a PM who went on to win at some point:
Week 1: Tim and Ashleigh
Week 2: Yasmina and Stella
Week 4: Tim
Week 5: Arjun, Zara, Ricky and Ashleigh
Week 6: Leah
Week 7: Michelle, Simon and Lee
Week 8: Yasmina, Stella and Tom
Week 9: Michelle and Ricky
Week 10: Simon, Lee and Yasmina
Week 11: Ricky
I only bring it up now because I feel like that record may be broken this year. Currently I have my eye on Ella Jade, but Roisin and Katie (particularly Katie) both really seem like contenders for the prize. Anyone else have any thoughts on it? I remember working out the statistics last year - at that time it was Weeks 3 and 6, but Leah's win put paid to that.
Interestingly, on the Digital Spy Apprentice game, every winner has PM'd in Week 3!
Week 1: Tim and Ashleigh
Week 2: Yasmina and Stella
Week 4: Tim
Week 5: Arjun, Zara, Ricky and Ashleigh
Week 6: Leah
Week 7: Michelle, Simon and Lee
Week 8: Yasmina, Stella and Tom
Week 9: Michelle and Ricky
Week 10: Simon, Lee and Yasmina
Week 11: Ricky
I only bring it up now because I feel like that record may be broken this year. Currently I have my eye on Ella Jade, but Roisin and Katie (particularly Katie) both really seem like contenders for the prize. Anyone else have any thoughts on it? I remember working out the statistics last year - at that time it was Weeks 3 and 6, but Leah's win put paid to that.
Interestingly, on the Digital Spy Apprentice game, every winner has PM'd in Week 3!
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Well, considering Susan got investment, you could say that she's technically a winner.
Never noticed this before, actually, but I agree, Katie and Roisin are looking good early on.
Well yes, but if you're going to use that logic, you could say that Stella technically isn't one, given that she has been pretty much written off by Sugar. I consider the winners to be the people who were told that they won at the end of the series, and that's it, so I don't count Susan.
What I've found in recent series is that the people who have a good (or rather sympathetic) losing PM edit get far - Ricky was a great example of this, and although he didn't win, Neil last year was another one. I can't say for definite that either Felipe or Roisin got that edit (Roisin's was relatively sympathetic but not enough for the edit that I've seen previously), so it will be interesting to see if either Solomon or Ella-Jade get that tonight.
I think the two-PM thing is quite likely anyway, as the majority of people who get a long way in the process do it a second time, and there have only been a few people who have had three stints. It makes sense that two out of the four who only managed once were from Young Apprentice, as that had fewer episodes. In fact, not including the finals, not a single candidate from Arjun's series had a second stint (although it is one of only two series in which every candidate got to do it at some point, the other being Series 2).
What is interesting is that six winners were either the last or joint last to manage a task - Michelle, Simon, Lee, Arjun, Tom and Zara. I think this works in people's favour because by that point it's easier to manage, you know people's strengths and there are less people to deal with.
Also, every Young Apprentice winner led in Week 5, though Ashleigh led a different task as well.
So on the week 3 thing - that seems to suggest that neither Roisin or Katie will end up winning. What I'd be interested in is how many of those week 3 PMs got to the final 2 (I know Tom G, Helen and Luisa weren't PM in week 3 so I would be intrigued to see if it really is a bogey week).
Ian didn't volunteer though, Lord Sugar appointed him.
And besides, I don't think Ian was too bad in the first two tasks. I seem to recall he was rated as a pretty decent seller in the first task.
None of the candidates who were PM in week 3 made it to the final 2 (only looking at the version with adults). Week 8 is the best week to be PM in (it gave us 7 finalists), while week 1 is indeed not a wise choice (from series 2 onwards only one person made it to the final 2).
And these were the PM's in week 3 (from high to low; in terms of serie nr.):
- Jordan
- Natalie
- Katie
- Duane
- Susan
- Gavin
- Melissa
- Shibby
- Debra
- James
- Sara
- Ian
- Tre
- Naomi
- Syed
- Jo
- Matthew
- Adele
In bold are the PM's for whom that week was their last week due to Sugar pointing his finger at them (at least, out the top of my head).
So, seeing all those names, I think that a curse is probably a bit too extreme, as under the right circumstances a few of them could have made it to the final 2 (some as they were actually quite close in the end and some because of their potential and strange sudden firings).
Still, someone at the BBC might see this thread and watch out in case it happens this year. It will be another "thing that hasn't happened before" for Dara to talk about.
Exactly the odds don't change year from year, they are statistically what is known as mutually exclusive meaning that the previous years results don't affect the current year's result. What would affect the out come is if the show was shortened or lengthened to less or more than 12 episodes as the number of episodes is what effects the odds of the PM winning each week which has nothing to do with what has gone before. One of the biggest misconceptions about chance is that in a given amount of turns a certain result is more likely to come up if it hasn't come up in a while if at all when it is going to be exactly the same odds no matter what the result is. Of course if say you are tossing a coin and heads comes up 10 times in a row the chance of getting tails is still 1/2 assuming a fair coin. Of course by 10 times you might start to suspect that maybe the coin is weighted but that is going well off topic. Lecture over
I think Solomon got quite a good edit. He chose a different YouTube person to promote them to the one that the team wanted, but in the boardroom it appeared that his decision had been the right one.
Solomon did well this week, and I think Mark is very competent too. Most of the joke candidates have gone already. So there are a number of potential winners who didn't PM last week. I think Week 3's record is safe this year. ;-)
What was the point of saying 'only looking at the version with adults'? None of the Young Apprentice candidates who led in Week 3 made the final two either, so it makes no difference whether you include it or not.
Maining that I didn't check those series (so, I made that statement to make clear which series my research was about).
I think you meant to type 'statistically independent' instead of 'mutually exclusive'.
Yup, as you might tell I don't use statistical language much any more and so am a bit rusty