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'Everyone knows Cameron is bluffing' - Douglas Carswell.

angarrackangarrack Posts: 5,493
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www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11700580/The-rest-of-Europe-knows-that-David-Cameron-is-bluffing.html

He's doing his best. There's nothing else he can do, but you would have to be very naive to take it all at face value.

Carswell is right. Even at this early stage in the Referendum campaign its quite clear that Cameron is going to get nowhere with his attempts to win significant concessions from the EU.

Cameron is mistaken if he thinks voters will buy into a dodgy PR exercise as they did in 1975.
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    MeepersMeepers Posts: 5,502
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    Taking things politicians say at face value when they arent really true?

    Something UKIP would know all about, just ask Nigel.
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    BlairdennonBlairdennon Posts: 14,207
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    angarrack wrote: »
    www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11700580/The-rest-of-Europe-knows-that-David-Cameron-is-bluffing.html

    He's doing his best. There's nothing else he can do, but you would have to be very naive to take it all at face value.

    Carswell is right. Even at this early stage in the Referendum campaign its quite clear that Cameron is going to get nowhere with his attempts to win significant concessions from the EU.

    Cameron is mistaken if he thinks voters will buy into a dodgy PR exercise as they did in 1975.

    It will be much more subtle, or possibly even totally unsubtle, than 75 and concessions will be granted in the normal way after having cosmetic all night sessions to hammer out agreements. I think all of those 'concessions' will be time limited and will be rescinded in time. It is just a matter of keeping our eyes on the balls so to speak and there will be many red herrings as there was with the fisheries (apologies).
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    angarrackangarrack Posts: 5,493
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    Meepers wrote: »
    Taking things politicians say at face value when they arent really true?

    Something UKIP would know all about, just ask Nigel.

    Fair enough. But this isn't domestic politics. This is the Prime Minister on the world stage attempting to negotiate a deal he must know in his heart cannot succeed.

    That in itself would be OK. He tried and failed.

    But we know what is going to happen. Cameron will pretend to the voters that he hasn't failed and will recommend a 'Yes' vote regardless of his failure to get the concessions he promised.
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    RooksRooks Posts: 9,102
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    Neither Cameron nor the rest of the EU will be making any serious attempts to reform our relationship with the EU whilst the opinion polls show that the UK will vote to stay in the EU. The UK government only woke up and took the Scottish independence vote seriously when it looked like Scotland might actually vote to leave the UK.

    So if we really do want real change then we have to see those opinion polls narrowing. If they don't then the whole exercise is a waste of time.
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    AndyCopenAndyCopen Posts: 2,213
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    It's clear the EU will not change, at least in the way some in the UK would like. the only change the want is more EU rather than less.

    It is good they are being honest, so we can make a choice
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    tony321tony321 Posts: 10,594
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    It's a clear choice no matter how the Tories spin it, EU as it is now or out
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    kidspudkidspud Posts: 18,341
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    I think we are in for an interesting time. The worst scenario for the EU is that they don't show willing to give credible concessions and then the UK vote to remain in the EU.

    This will mean that every future treaty change (which the EU will need) will be opposed by the UK and will therefore not get through.
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    PrestonAlPrestonAl Posts: 10,342
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    The amount of money that will be thrown at the Yes campaign will be disgusting. If anyone thinking it will be fair is in for a surprise.
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    _Call_Me_Dave__Call_Me_Dave_ Posts: 201
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    PrestonAl wrote: »
    The amount of money that will be thrown at the Yes campaign will be disgusting. If anyone thinking it will be fair is in for a surprise.
    I think the No campaign will be quite well funded. Arron Banks and various other businessmen/women have pledged £7 million with a target of £20 million. This is just one group out of 7 or so groups.

    I think the media coverage will be more important.
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    It's hardly a credible negotiating tactic to say before you start whatever happens I will campaign in the referendum to stay in. If you don't at least threaten British exit why would anyone give you concessions,

    Maybe he needs to check out what Greece is doing - their government is literally running the EU ragged in these endless negotiations.
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    PrestonAlPrestonAl Posts: 10,342
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    I think the No campaign will be quite well funded. Arron Banks and various other businessmen/women have pledged £7 million with a target of £20 million. This is just one group out of 7 or so groups.

    I think the media coverage will be more important.

    Big business, the Eu and the pro-eu lobby will dwarf that figure.
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    AndyCopenAndyCopen Posts: 2,213
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    kidspud wrote: »
    I think we are in for an interesting time. The worst scenario for the EU is that they don't show willing to give credible concessions and then the UK vote to remain in the EU.

    This will mean that every future treaty change (which the EU will need) will be opposed by the UK and will therefore not get through.

    I am afraid not, qualified majority voting came into force with the surrender documents (Treaty of Lisbon) , you know that bit of paper that was just tidying up things, that Brown signed, turning up late because he was so ashamed of his treachery

    "With the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon a new system known as “double majority” was introduced. It will enter into force on 1 November 2014. The Nice system shall remain applicable during the transition period up to 31 October 2014. In accordance with the Treaty, the new qualified majority corresponds to at least 55% of the members of the Council, comprising at least 15 of them and representing at least 65% of the European population. A blocking minority may be formed comprising at least four members of the Council."
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    tomp94tomp94 Posts: 280
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    Of course slippery Dave is bluffing.

    I'm sure Dave would even rig the result of the referendum to make sure we stay in the EU.
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    NodgerNodger Posts: 6,668
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    Leaked note suggests Cameron's 'firm aim' to stay in EU

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33285893

    "The Guardian said his intentions were revealed in an account of a meeting with another EU leader it had obtained.
    It said the note suggested Mr Cameron believed "people will ultimately vote for the status quo if the alternatives can be made to appear risky"."


    No shit!
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    Merkel knows Cameron is on side even if offered a little more than crumbs.
    She knows the Labour party, the Tories, the LibDems, and the SNP will be campaigning for a yes vote. That's the political establishedment in the bag. She will be aware of the polls showing a majority wish to remain.

    Oh, and we haven't even touched on the big business and media, they'll be on side too, remember the Scottish ref.

    She doesn't really have to offer a whole lot tbh.
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    angarrackangarrack Posts: 5,493
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    PrestonAl wrote: »
    Big business, the Eu and the pro-eu lobby will dwarf that figure.

    I also think that the media approach will be more important than campaign funding.
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    niceguy1966niceguy1966 Posts: 29,560
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    I don't care if he gets concessions, the uk is better off in the eu.

    Little Englanders can pretend we'll be better off out, but we'll end up agreeing so many concessions in return for access to the single market, it will make no difference anyway.
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    I don't care if he gets concessions, the uk is better off in the eu.

    Little Englanders can pretend we'll be better off out, but we'll end up agreeing so many concessions in return for access to the single market, it will make no difference anyway.

    You do wonder how 180 countries in the world survive outside the EU - let alone the worlds fifth largest economy. It's very sad you have such a low opinion of your own country that you believe it cannot cope unless it is part of some superstate with a load of half bankrupt states who cannot find jobs for their own young people so have to export them.

    The EU is just dragging us down - the world and Asia in particular offers far more opportunities.
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    AndyCopenAndyCopen Posts: 2,213
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    It's a great idea to pay £13 billion pounds to import 60 Billion pounds of goods from the German Reich and 10 million people from the EU's Eastern beggar states
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    _Call_Me_Dave__Call_Me_Dave_ Posts: 201
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    I don't care if he gets concessions, the uk is better off in the eu.

    Little Englanders can pretend we'll be better off out, but we'll end up agreeing so many concessions in return for access to the single market, it will make no difference anyway.
    EEA + EFTA would enable the UK to sign FTAs with anyone they like and would not be held back by the protectionist little Europeaners.

    The Common Agricultural Policy is the biggest protectionist racket of all. When New Zealand dropped subsidies the amount of innovation and efficiency increased.
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    PrestonAlPrestonAl Posts: 10,342
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    angarrack wrote: »
    I also think that the media approach will be more important than campaign funding.

    All of them bar the express being pro-eu?
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    _Call_Me_Dave__Call_Me_Dave_ Posts: 201
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    PrestonAl wrote: »
    All of them bar the express being pro-eu?
    Maybe The Spectator.

    Murdoch may not be in favour of leaving but his editorial staff at The Sun will be. The Telegraph is the opposite, the Barclay brothers are quite eurosceptic but their staff will do whatever CCHQ tell them.
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    Now here is a real leader with backbone standing up for his country - despite being in a much weaker position. Seems Mr Tsipras is going to hold a referendum in Greece - cos the principles of democracy, mutual respect and the freedom to run your own country are things worth fighting for!:D

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-26/tsipras-rejects-ultimatums-says-wont-be-blackmailed

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/greece-pressured-to-bow-to-deal-at-meeting-touted-as-decisive

    Madame Blagarde aka Marie Antoinette and Frau Merkel won't like that.
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    Regis MagnaeRegis Magnae Posts: 6,810
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    Is Cameron a great gambler or an idiot whose digging his career's grave?
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    Seems the referendum is to be held on Sunday 5 July - the Greek one that is. Powerful words from the Greek PM!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33296839
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