My main fear about a Labour Government.
Old Man 43
Posts: 6,214 Forum Member
✭
They do not seem to be taking the Deficit and National Debt seriously.
As I understand it they are suggesting reducing the deficit during this parliament and only getting the budget into surplus after the 2020 general election.
There are two main problems with this:-
1) Their plans seem to be on the assumption that there will not be another recession for at least 10 years. This seems to me be a rather rash assumption. Especially as the conditions that lead to recessions seem to occur an 8-10 year cycle. The only reason a recession was avoided in 2000/01 was due to the US government borrowing loads of money to give out tax cuts along with the British government borrowing money to spend (neither government will be in a position to do this if there is another recession in the short to medium term).
2) Even if they are lucky in avoiding another recession in the next ten years. Their plans will likely mean that the national debt will still be well over 40% of GDP in 2025. This is important because after 2025 the baby boomers born in the late 50's and through most of the 60's will be retiring. This is going to see the financial burden on future taxpayers increase massively. This will be even worse if the national debt is still significantly higher than 40% of GDP when this starts happening.
For me it seems obvious that we need to deal with the Deficit and the National Debt sooner rather than later.
As I understand it they are suggesting reducing the deficit during this parliament and only getting the budget into surplus after the 2020 general election.
There are two main problems with this:-
1) Their plans seem to be on the assumption that there will not be another recession for at least 10 years. This seems to me be a rather rash assumption. Especially as the conditions that lead to recessions seem to occur an 8-10 year cycle. The only reason a recession was avoided in 2000/01 was due to the US government borrowing loads of money to give out tax cuts along with the British government borrowing money to spend (neither government will be in a position to do this if there is another recession in the short to medium term).
2) Even if they are lucky in avoiding another recession in the next ten years. Their plans will likely mean that the national debt will still be well over 40% of GDP in 2025. This is important because after 2025 the baby boomers born in the late 50's and through most of the 60's will be retiring. This is going to see the financial burden on future taxpayers increase massively. This will be even worse if the national debt is still significantly higher than 40% of GDP when this starts happening.
For me it seems obvious that we need to deal with the Deficit and the National Debt sooner rather than later.
0
Comments
They come out with all of this fiscally conservative rhetoric and bluff, but isn't our debt as a share of GDP one of the largest in the developing world? And still growing IIRC?
The Tories just spunk money in other areas (like tasty privatised contracts for their mates, defense spending, winter fuel allowances etc). Neither party is very different when it comes to the bottom line.
Both parties just want to give sweeteners to their voters, and to hell with the financial consequences.
Reckless, self-serving, lying hacks, the both of them.
They mostly work on the never never, and end up borrowing to pay for their boastful promises.
If I went down to the local Bentley garage, and tried to buy a top of the range car, I would be refused because I don't have millions in the bank. My priority every month is making sure I have enough money to pay the bills. I can't afford to go on holiday. So I don't. You have to work to your budget. yes it might not be fun, but it is better in the long run. Keeping a roof over your head and food on the table are far more important.
Yet Labour seem to think this is a perfectly acceptable way to run the country. "lets spend billions on things when we can't afford to pay for the basics".
Anyone who has to do basic accounting knows, that you can't spend what you haven't got.
Looking back through the political history of the past 100 years, a pattern does seem to emerge, where Labour promise the earth, spend loads of money, (who is going to turn down free money?) Labour supporters are happy because they have more benefits etc, then practically bankrupt the country. Then the Tories get into power because businesses are sick of having to pay over the top, and (rightly or wrongly) the Tories have to make serious cuts in order to fill up the piggy bank again, thus getting a reputation as being sooooo mean and nasty (those horrid toffs).
You cant live on fresh air. Sometimes you have to cut down on things. Why don't people understand that?
Ultimately, Labour try to be "one of the people" when really, they are no different to those upperclass snobbish tories they hate so much.
They hate the fact they have been to private schools, Eton, or Oxford/Cambridge, and have trust funds from parents. Yet, these labour MP's who send their kids to private schools, and end up with millions in the bank don't seem to realise their kids will BE just like the people they are trying to slander now. Entitled, rich, snobs. Just with socialist parents. What is the difference?
I don't expect ANY Labour MP would give up their money and live in an equal society.
I respect individual politicians (of many different political views) who are logical and address the problems in hand. Sometimes you have to make difficult and unpopular decisions when running a business (which is what the UK economy is), sometimes you have to cut down on certain things to make the business more viable and sustainable long term.
Right now we are at a tipping point with the UK economy, things ARE looking better. BUT, to go on a spending splurge now, would just undo all the hard work and effort that has been put into getting us back on a more solid footing.
There is nothing to inspire confidence in the Tories given their record of overseeing the slowest recovery ever and eroding the tax base. George has done a lot of fudging of the figures during his time and still can't really say the deficit has even been halved. That is obviously a dismal record but I don't expect they will stop praising themselves as heroes.
For the majority of the last 300 years our debt to GDP has been above 80%, so 40% sounds manageable enough. The first step to dealing with the debt and deficit is making it a priority to invest in the younger generation and creating the secure jobs we need.
An excellent post
Edit: If Labour get in and they start borrowing wildly again, I don't think Ed Miliband will get voted in again at 2020.
They will do exactly that and spunk a load of cash we don't have to shore up votes. They will allow unabated immigration and carry on with their multicultural utopia mission, all the while blaming the Conservatives as they become increasingly reckless. I cannot vote for them ever again as they missed a golden opportunity to increase prosperity, but instead chose to spend all the cash, took us into an illegal war and opened the doors to allow unfettered immigration, effectively consigning the natives to see a downward change in their earnings and employment prospects.
The two party political system in this country has meant we just lurch from one cock-up to another, with Labour spending and the Tories saving. It's how the left are portrayed as 'good' and the right 'evil'. The real evil is that neither party gives a shit about anything other than their own career ambitions and are completely out of touch with most people in this country, as the phrase 'public servant' is just a distant notion today.
An excellent well thought out post (as was the previous one to your post), my thoughts exactly.....Labour are doing a very similar thing to the current Greek Government, promising everything (when they were in power they voted against every benefit cut)....yeh if they were to get in they a- either disappoint a lot of people because they will keep all the cuts that are in place (you can almost guarantee 99percent of them will be kept) or B- put us into a drastically bad situation which will end up in disaster.....I think they will opt for the former and hope people doing actually notice.
Doesn't look like any party is going to win (a majority of seats). Labour could well get the most votes though.
Labour want their core vote and sympathetic floating voters to think that the cuts will be reversed and public spending will shoot up if they come in - but they never really spell this out in detail. As they know once they are elected they won't be able to deliver much of either.
Unfortunately money we don't have......even Labour admitted it with their Sorry no money left note!!!
What suggestions do you have for "fair cuts"?
The coalition has not laid waste to the country.
The NHS is struggling because much of the budget is wasted. Less than half the workforce has any kind of medical qualification; I have a relative who works in a hospital with 250 beds and 450 managers. Labour will do nothing to improve things; the public sector fat cats are all Labour supporters.
So how much extra tax are you wiling to pay - or should that money come from other people?
If Ed Balls said in his first Budget that your taxes were going up by £100 a month would you be a) delighted, b) accepting or c) angry?
Labour have dedicated themselves to making no uncosted spending plans, so it's the Tories you ought to be referring to.
Perhaps we could have decided that keeping a roof over your head and food on the table are far more important things back in the 70s, but it was the greed is good philosophy that was the dawn of debt woe for millions of people, and you obviously haven't noticed that homelessness and food poverty happen more when we have a Tory government with the wrong priorities in power.
Some proof of this pattern would be good to see? Otherwise I'm afraid it looks nothing more than a made up fabrication. You must think it's fine and dandy when the Tories are repeating the mistakes of the sub prime mortgage crisis that led to the global crash, or when credit cards were invented under a Tory government?
Because the system is based on debt and consumption and doesn't want them too.
Labour have changed from what they once were, but anyone in favour of fairness should be glad that Ed is no Tony Blair or David Miliband. The difference is how people with power use it. Time is up for Tory ideology if we want to save ourselves from becoming a slave worker society akin to China, but we know that is what George wants because he told us.
We are at a tipping point but it's about whether we are smart enough as a nation to do something about the growing gap between the rich and poor.
It is a well-known "fact" that everybody who works in the NHS should be medics.
And that all in the forces should be those on active service.
And that all in the police should be bobbies.
Major institutions don't need to be organised and administered..............
Those on higher earnings should pay more Income Tax in my view.
Define "higher earnings"? Higher that what - higher than you?
Would *you* be prepared to pay more tax or do you think that someone on average earnings should be asked to pay more? If you really want to spend more money on public services then you have to be prepared to ask the vast majority of people to contribute more. There just aren't enough very rich people to pay for everything and as a famous lady once said, you soon run out of "other people's money".
Sounds like you want higher public spending but don't want to help pay for it yourself.