weather long range forecasting

flashgordon1952flashgordon1952 Posts: 3,799
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well i was surprised a well known weather expert on tv has predicted the following for this year and the next few as well.
colder winters (the exact opposite we haveing now) think he may have got this wrong myself.
wetter summers . yes i give him a gold star for that prediction (think that was a no brainer myself).
this is my prediction !
milder winters later on, early november to mid december snow followed by gale force winds in west . tradictional storms in october with winds of 90mph in the west note all regions will have storm force winds average temps in january with milder days well above average rain ,with flooding !
february the same as january ! with less storms and sunny days temps average for february.
march storm force winds and milderlater on in month with temps touching 60-65 F.
april a dryer month with average rainfull and temps again the normal april showers. temps start to dip end of month .
may. temps dropping like a stone early on with temps below average for the month. and yes our friend the rain above average for may but not a s bad as 2012 with less flooding.
june summer is comeing folks. 100F on at least one day in june in the west or south east. have a feeling we may even break the 103F at tilbury.. dont despair here comes the rain and huge flooding. temps above average
july a so so month just the usual temps for this month the odd heat wave in particular early part of month, floods .more rain

By the way my prediction for 2012 was spot-on certainly in regards to flooding..
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Comments

  • ArcticJayHArcticJayH Posts: 739
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    My head hurts :(
  • Auntie ClimaxAuntie Climax Posts: 917
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    I don't believe it's possible to predict the weather that far ahead. It's all guess work. Sometimes they can't even get it right a few hours ahead, nevermind a few months or years.
  • BillyCasperBillyCasper Posts: 1,421
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    As long as its nice for Glastonbury I don't care.
  • wrexham103.4wrexham103.4 Posts: 3,334
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    3 days max for accuracy!
  • jsmith99jsmith99 Posts: 20,382
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    What i don't understand is how, if they can't produce an accurate forecast for three days ahead, they claim to be able to tell us what it'll be like in 50 years' time.
  • CryolemonCryolemon Posts: 8,670
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    3 days max for accuracy!

    Pretty much, and even then, it's not perfect.
  • SigurdSigurd Posts: 26,610
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    well i was surprised a well known weather expert on tv has predicted the following for this year and the next few as well...
    Who was this well-known weather expert? One of the cranks beloved by the likes of the Daily Express?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 840
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    jsmith99 wrote: »
    What i don't understand is how, if they can't produce an accurate forecast for three days ahead, they claim to be able to tell us what it'll be like in 50 years' time.
    The climate and the weather are linked but also completely different things. You can predict that in 50 years the world will be warmer overall, and there's not much argument over that given the current trend (well, there are arguments over whether that's caused by humans or nature). But you can't say that 2063 will be a rainy year.
  • CryolemonCryolemon Posts: 8,670
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    plastik2k9 wrote: »
    The climate and the weather are linked but also completely different things. You can predict that in 50 years the world will be warmer overall, and there's not much argument over that given the current trend (well, there are arguments over whether that's caused by humans or nature). But you can't say that 2063 will be a rainy year.

    Well, you can say it. Whether you're right is a crap shoot though.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 32,379
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    3 days max for accuracy!

    Not even as good as that. Last week we were having gale force winds for days, lasted less than 12 hours.

    The forecast last Sunday wasn't very good but it's been quite a pleasant mild week.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 32,379
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    plastik2k9 wrote: »
    The climate and the weather are linked but also completely different things. You can predict that in 50 years the world will be warmer overall, and there's not much argument over that given the current trend (well, there are arguments over whether that's caused by humans or nature). But you can't say that 2063 will be a rainy year.

    The climate has been changing for millions of years. The records have only been kept for 100+ years so predictions are pointless.

    Didn't England get a hosepipe ban last year because of the predicted dry summer, didn't happen though.
  • CryolemonCryolemon Posts: 8,670
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    woodbush wrote: »
    The climate has been changing for millions of years. The records have only been kept for 100+ years so predictions are pointless.

    Didn't England get a hosepipe ban last year because of the predicted dry summer, didn't happen though.

    The hosepipe ban was because of a lack of rain in the later part of 2011 and the early part of 2012.
  • Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    100F or over in June would be extraordinary to say the least. The current UK record is 101F set on 10th August 2003, a date that is slap bang in the "warmest fortnight" of the year and was set at the end of an intense heatwave during one of the hottest and driest summers on record. I also doubt that the record will be set in west, the eastern half of the UK is the warmer and drier side, any record temperature will be set inside the SE corner.
  • Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    jsmith99 wrote: »
    What i don't understand is how, if they can't produce an accurate forecast for three days ahead, they claim to be able to tell us what it'll be like in 50 years' time.

    You can't predict day to day weather, but you can predict the overall climate of a particular region. Britain has a mild temperate climate dominated by weather systems pushing off the Atlantic. The warmer the atmosphere becomes the more moisture it holds and the more rain it can deliver over time. There is clear evidence in the Met Office data that our climate is getting wetter each decade and one has to ask how it can be that all but one of the five wettest years on record have occurred since 2000?
  • bluebladeblueblade Posts: 88,859
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    well i was surprised a well known weather expert on tv has predicted the following for this year and the next few as well.
    colder winters (the exact opposite we haveing now) think he may have got this wrong myself.
    wetter summers . yes i give him a gold star for that prediction (think that was a no brainer myself).
    this is my prediction !
    milder winters later on, early november to mid december snow followed by gale force winds in west . tradictional storms in october with winds of 90mph in the west note all regions will have storm force winds average temps in january with milder days well above average rain ,with flooding !
    february the same as january ! with less storms and sunny days temps average for february.
    march storm force winds and milderlater on in month with temps touching 60-65 F.
    april a dryer month with average rainfull and temps again the normal april showers. temps start to dip end of month .
    may. temps dropping like a stone early on with temps below average for the month. and yes our friend the rain above average for may but not a s bad as 2012 with less flooding.
    june summer is comeing folks. 100F on at least one day in june in the west or south east. have a feeling we may even break the 103F at tilbury.. dont despair here comes the rain and huge flooding. temps above average
    july a so so month just the usual temps for this month the odd heat wave in particular early part of month, floods .more rain

    By the way my prediction for 2012 was spot-on certainly in regards to flooding..

    The "wetter Summers" prediction appears to be based on one wet Summer ~ 2012. The fact that 2011 was a predominantly dry Summer, is soon forgotten.

    I think a more accurate way of putting it is that when a wet Summer does occur, it will probably be much wetter than the wet Summers we used to have, due to global warming.

    It doesn't mean that every, or even the majority of Summers will be wet.
  • HieronymousHieronymous Posts: 7,268
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    woodbush wrote: »
    The climate has been changing for millions of years. The records have only been kept for 100+ years so predictions are pointless.

    Didn't England get a hosepipe ban last year because of the predicted dry summer, didn't happen though.

    No. England didn't get a hosepipe ban, it was just the South, South-East I believe.

    I predict a plague of frogs!!
  • njpnjp Posts: 27,583
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    woodbush wrote: »
    The climate has been changing for millions of years.

    The records have only been kept for 100+ years so predictions are pointless.
    You tell us that records have only been kept for "100+" years, and yet you seem confident that the climate has been changing for "millions of years". That implies that you are happy to accept evidence from paleoclimate reconstructions.

    In any case, what immutable law of the Universe tells us that prediction about the future is impossible (or "pointless") without complete knowledge of the past?
  • annette kurtenannette kurten Posts: 39,543
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    ..........................
  • shackfanshackfan Posts: 15,461
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    3 days max for accuracy!

    Last week one morning the BBC map clearly showed a possible shower first thing then a dry afternoon. It pissed down all afternoon. Nuff said.
  • albertdalbertd Posts: 14,341
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    No. England didn't get a hosepipe ban, it was just the South, South-East I believe.
    I think it was quite a bit more than that. It went well up into the Midlands and East Anglia. I believe I saw somewhere that about half of England was affected.
  • HieronymousHieronymous Posts: 7,268
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    albertd wrote: »
    I think it was quite a bit more than that. It went well up into the Midlands and East Anglia. I believe I saw somewhere that about half of England was affected.

    Well, it certainly wasn't the whole of England. I don't know where Veolia Water covers:

    http://www.hosepipeban.org.uk/2012/03/14/hosepipe-ban-restrictions-2012/
  • AndrueAndrue Posts: 23,351
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    It hasn't been very good so far. The consensus in early autumn was for the worst winter in 50 years, maybe 100 years. Now fair enough winter is not over yet but it's hard to see how those predictions can come true now.
  • bluebladeblueblade Posts: 88,859
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    No. England didn't get a hosepipe ban, it was just the South, South-East I believe.

    I predict a plague of frogs!!
    albertd wrote: »
    I think it was quite a bit more than that. It went well up into the Midlands and East Anglia. I believe I saw somewhere that about half of England was affected.

    East Anglia & the East Midlands was affected (Anglian water), but as far as I know, the West Midlands ~ largely covered by Severn Trent water, was not.

    link

    That link is dated 5th April 2012, and has to be the last report on drought worries, before the deluge started.
    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    100F or over in June would be extraordinary to say the least. The current UK record is 101F set on 10th August 2003, a date that is slap bang in the "warmest fortnight" of the year and was set at the end of an intense heatwave during one of the hottest and driest summers on record. I also doubt that the record will be set in west, the eastern half of the UK is the warmer and drier side, any record temperature will be set inside the SE corner.

    Yep, if we're going to break the 100F barrier, it will probably be between about 22nd July to 12th August.

    The highest June maximums were jointly 35.6C (96.08F) in London on 29th in 1957, and Southampton on 28th, in 1976.

    The next big psychologically important barrier, will be 40C (104F exactly). I predict that at some point in the next 50 years, that figure will be attained somewhere in the South Eastern half of England (which is slightly different from South East England itself).
  • jsmith99jsmith99 Posts: 20,382
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    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    You can't predict day to day weather, but you can predict the overall climate of a particular region..............

    You can predict anything you feel like; time will tell whether your prediction was accurate.
    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    ..............There is clear evidence in the Met Office data that our climate is getting wetter each decade and one has to ask how it can be that all but one of the five wettest years on record have occurred since 2000?

    "How can it be"? By being selective with the data, probably. From the phrase "all but one", I assume that the actual wettest years was before 2000? And as you say, that's "on record"; how long have weather records been kept? 250 years?
  • njpnjp Posts: 27,583
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    jsmith99 wrote: »
    "How can it be"? By being selective with the data, probably. From the phrase "all but one", I assume that the actual wettest years was before 2000? And as you say, that's "on record"; how long have weather records been kept? 250 years?
    The third wettest year was in 1954. The England & Wales Precipitation (EWP) series starts in 1766. The years are ranked thus:

    1. 2000 - 1,337.3mm
    2. 2012 - 1,330.7mm
    3. 1954 - 1,309.1mm
    4. 2008 - 1,295.0mm
    5. 2002 - 1,283.7mm

    Just so we know, what do you regard as a valid climatological interval, for the purpose of establishing the existence or otherwise of trends in precipitation or temperature?

    Also, what these numbers do not capture is the increase in extreme rainfall events. 2012 had periods with well below average rainfall, followed by periods with well above average rainfall.
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