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The great Trisha odds mystery - here's my theory


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Old 22-01-2013, 13:11
firsttimeviewer
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Rylan was the absolute hot favourite from the beginning.

Any serious money was placed on him quite early on and bookies dropped his odds to 1/4 on at one point,

Then the market stagnated and bookies were looking at a big loss as the forums and BBOTS was strongly indicative of a Rylan win.

Nobody else was being backed as it was a foregone conclusion, save for the odd bet on Speidy as the only other realistic contender to this.

How do you solve a problem like this as a bookie?

You need punters to back other housemates to mitigate your position.

How do you get people betting when nobody is betting?

By manipulating the market, that's how.

You choose a horse (or person in this case) who you know has absolutely no chance of winning and get people to back that person.

How do you get people backing that person?

1) Start some rumours. There were a few on here over the weekend that Trish had stood up to Speidy and was the new house hero for example

2) Drop the odds dramatically i.e. create a virtual steamer. Not as crazy as it sounds. When her odds started dropping rapidly, people will have backed her with the belief that somebody somewhere knows something and they are betting big on this.

Bookies don't lose anything on this, the odds on Rylan only drifted out slightly and bookies are limiting the amount you can place on him anyway.

If it works and punters start backing Trishia, it's money for nothing for the bookies. If it fails, they don't lose anything by trying.


The best example currently about the absurdity of it all is Paddy Power.

Trisha to Win odds 5/2 second favourite
Trisha to Go on Weds odds 5/2 second favourite

As many have said, the 5/2 odds for her to win are laughable.
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Old 22-01-2013, 13:20
ffawkes
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Before the trish odds tumbled anyone wishing to vote against rylan and speidi may well not have bothered when they realised that the non-rylan-speidi votes might be split roughly equally across the other 4 meaning none of the other 4 would gather enough votes to win.

So bung a bundle on one of them (Trish) so the voters see the odds come in, that will make them think - aye aye, there's money gooing on her, she'll be getting a lot of votes then, more than the other 3, so i'll add my vote too, anything to stop rylan or speidi winning,

hence lots of votes for Trish, maybe enough to give her the victory
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Old 22-01-2013, 13:28
firsttimeviewer
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Trish actually getting lots of votes doesn't make sense when the two markets of Weds night eviction and the To Win market are compared as above.

In fact, nothing stacks up with her getting lots of votes.

Crowd reaction to her name? Nothing
Events in the house? Nothing
Storylines around her? Nothing
Coverage on BBOTS? Nothing
Threads about her before the massive steamer? Nothing
Polls? Bottom

This doesn't smell like a betting sting by a punter who is hopeful that hundreds of thousands of middleground voters will back Trisha because her odds are dropping.

It smells more like a bookies operation.
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Old 22-01-2013, 13:29
Satanel
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Say one person bet 20,000 on her when her odds were near 100/1 or whatever they made have been... this one person could probably vote enough times to at least get Tricia to stay on Wednesday and then win and still make a massive profit.

Tricia being Tricia I don't think means anything.

(Though I want her to win because she's amaze).
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Old 22-01-2013, 13:34
firsttimeviewer
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No bookie worth his salt would take a bet of 20K at 100/1 on a reality TV programme.

They could spread it, certainly.

But how may votes do you need to place to win? 100,000? 500,000? 1,000,000?

You'd have to be sure that you were going to win. You'd equally need to have the money to place that many votes? You'd equally need to have a fool proof voting method to place that many votes which would not be detectable.

You'd equally need to be able to get your money out of the bookies who I promise you would be demanding an investigation if Trisha did win.

I'm still to be convinced this is not a bookies led steamer.
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Old 22-01-2013, 13:44
willo30
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Creating a virtual steamer so to speak is against the rules with bookmakers and not one of them would do it. Odds can only be changed by money being placed on the market.
If anyone thinks big money is ever placed on this type of market then they are totally wrong. A bet of 5 to 10 could see the odds tumble as they are just a novelty bet. Bookies would never make or lose big money on these types of bets, they are just used to attract new punters, much the same as a supermarket selling goods at a loss just to get people into their store.
A perfect example is the Trisha market where she is 5/2 to win and leave. This just means there has probably only been money for her on both markets which are totally separate markets.
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Old 22-01-2013, 13:49
firsttimeviewer
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There was reportedly 46K placed on Betfair on Trisha over a 48 hour period, hardly small change?

I'm not for one second saying that bookies colluded to do this, that'd be legal suicide.

If one bookie however dropped his odds dramtically then the rest would follow, for that's how the world revolves.
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Old 22-01-2013, 13:52
firsttimeviewer
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I do agree however that Bookies would not risk much on such types of market. If however as I speculate, most money was placed on Rylan initially with little else out there, then if Rylan wins they will be in the red to a decent amount.

I guess I'm simply trying to work out her odds in the end, nothing at all stacks up.

If it's not the bookies then it's the punters as ffawkes suggests and that doesn't smell right either.

All very strange indeed, especially if Trish goes tonight!
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Old 22-01-2013, 14:49
willo30
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If Rylan wins then the bookies wouldn't lose a lot as he was priced up at the start to put people off backing him. This is their job to stop punters keeping on backing the favorite.

Every market needs a starting point and I believe Rylan was very short at the start. They would lose more if someone else won but not a lot anyway in the grand scale of things.
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Old 23-01-2013, 22:34
Romola_Des_Loup
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Trish actually getting lots of votes doesn't make sense when the two markets of Weds night eviction and the To Win market are compared as above.

In fact, nothing stacks up with her getting lots of votes.

Crowd reaction to her name? Nothing
Events in the house? Nothing
Storylines around her? Nothing
Coverage on BBOTS? Nothing
Threads about her before the massive steamer? Nothing
Polls? Bottom

This doesn't smell like a betting sting by a punter who is hopeful that hundreds of thousands of middleground voters will back Trisha because her odds are dropping.

It smells more like a bookies operation.
Even more so now!!!!
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Old 23-01-2013, 22:38
Enidan
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I still think it was her husband who placed the initial large bet because her odds were an embarrassment,
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Old 23-01-2013, 22:45
Alrightmate
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Creating a virtual steamer so to speak is against the rules with bookmakers and not one of them would do it. Odds can only be changed by money being placed on the market.
If anyone thinks big money is ever placed on this type of market then they are totally wrong. A bet of 5 to 10 could see the odds tumble as they are just a novelty bet. Bookies would never make or lose big money on these types of bets, they are just used to attract new punters, much the same as a supermarket selling goods at a loss just to get people into their store.
A perfect example is the Trisha market where she is 5/2 to win and leave. This just means there has probably only been money for her on both markets which are totally separate markets.
I don't believe that's true at all.
As I understand it the bookies can set whatever odds they wish.
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Old 23-01-2013, 22:53
henryscat
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Over 111,000 was matched on betfair on Tricia alone. Over a million was matched on the series. It takes a lot of suckers to move odds that much.
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Old 23-01-2013, 23:02
Black Velvet
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Can't understand why Tricia was put out and the boring ryan is still in
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Old 23-01-2013, 23:08
STUPID CUPID
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I still think it was insider bb people betting on a dark horse by expecting a public backlash against Rylan leaving bb for x factor rehearsals.
Lets face it,its cheating by any other bb standard of the past.
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Old 24-01-2013, 09:59
firsttimeviewer
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I guess it will always remain a mystery but as I've posted on this all the way through, it smells like a north sea trawler.

Having backed Claire to be the last woman standing (excluding Heidi) I'm quite happy myself but feel for anybody who may have been sucked into betting on a steamer.

Caveat Empore.
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Old 24-01-2013, 10:01
wonkeydonkey
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Can't understand why Tricia was put out and the boring ryan is still in
I quite genuinely can't see why Ryan is more boring than Tricia. I can't think of one single interesting or memorable moment she had in the house, whereas he has had several.
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Old 24-01-2013, 10:06
firsttimeviewer
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Ditto wonkey, Ryan has come across very likeable from me and appears to be a morally sound geezer. Quite a lot to like in him.

For example him volunteering for the cleaning of the pipes task very early on when Speidy refused.
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