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Greece pushed a step closer to Grexit after IMF snub

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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    mRebel wrote: »
    Now the Americans are putting pressure on Greece,

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/us-piles-pressure-athens-greek-224015918.html#ezHz2Dv

    Obama more directly called on Athens to accept the requirements that EU negotiators insist upon before releasing any more funds from the massive financial rescue program.
    "Greece needs to initiate reforms," Obama said at a joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi at the White House.
    "They have to collect taxes. They have to reduce their bureaucracy, (institute) more flexible labor practices," he said.


    Read the full article and you say the Americans are worried that Grexit could cause chaos on financial markets. If said markets can be so spooked by the problems of a small country like Greece, then it's the markets that need reforming.

    It's not just the fact Greece is a small country though. It's the fact that the Euro is tetering on the brink of a disaster. If Greece exits, then you can be sure that Spain or Portugal will be next.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    There will be no full break up of the eurozone. Generally people and media in the UK fail to grasp the political will in europe, especially from Germany to keep the euro show on the road.
    Over the last few years and especially at the height of the crisis, the Daily Telegraph especially along with most of the British media have been forecasting the demise of the euro.

    So ask yourself a question, just how many countries have left the eurozone? NONE
    How many times has Ambrose Pritchard from the Daily Telegraph warned about an imminent*collapse, yet new countries have joined since those predictions.

    This is wishful thinking. There isn't an unlimited pot of Money. The Germans are going to get mightily pissed off at having to keep bailing out nutcase economies. Although their government is to blame for pushing through the disastrous Euro experiment. At some point their will be a break up of the whole thing. You cannot have Lisbon and Berlin in the same currency area.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    It's not just the fact Greece is a small country though. It's the fact that the Euro is tetering on the brink of a disaster. If Greece exits, then you can be sure that Spain or Portugal will be next.

    No it is not. Don't believe everything you read in the Mail or Telegraph.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    This is wishful thinking. There isn't an unlimited pot of Money. The Germans are going to get mightily pissed off at having to keep bailing out nutcase economies. Although their government is to blame for pushing through the disastrous Euro experiment. At some point their will be a break up of the whole thing. You cannot have Lisbon and Berlin in the same currency area.

    Ireland is out of its bailout with the strongest and fastest growth (GDP) in the EU including Britain. Portugal is out of its bailout. Spain and Cyprus are out of their bank bailouts.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    No it is not. Don't believe everything you read in the Mail or Telegraph.

    Yes it is.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    Ireland is out of its bailout with the strongest and fastest growth (GDP) in the EU including Britain. Portugal is out of its bailout. Spain and Cyprus are out of their bank bailouts.

    What's the debt to GDP ratio in Ireland? What's the unemployment rate in Ireland? See you in a few years for another bailout.

    What's the unemployment rate in Portugal?

    What's the unemployment rate in Spain?

    What's the unemployment rate in Cyprus?
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    Yes it is.

    Riddle me this. The British media from Sky, to the Telegraph, to the BBC, to the Mail and so on, for the last five years, especially at the height of the euro crisis have been predicting and warning of a euro imminent collapse. So answer me this, how come not ONE country has left the eurozone in that period but new countries have actually joined. Is the British media P-ISS Poor?
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    Riddle me this. The British media from Sky, to the Telegraph, to the BBC, to the Mail and so on, for the last five years, especially at the height of the euro crisis have bern predicting and warning of a euro imminent collapse. So answer me this, how come not ONE country has left the eurozone in that period but new countries have actually joined. Is the British media P-ISS Poor?

    One country is about to leave within the next month or so. The countries that have joined are net beneficiary countries, and have no doubt joined, because if they ever have economic problems, they think Germany will bail them out. And just because they have joined, it doesn't mean the Euro is a raging success. It isn't. As I pointed out, all the EU has done is kicked the can down the road when it comes to Eurozone structural incompatibility. It is throwing good money after bad, and something will give eventually.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    One country is about to leave within the next month or so. The countries that have joined are net beneficiary countries, and have no doubt joined, because if they ever have economic problems, they think Germany will bail them out. And just because they have joined, it doesn't mean the Euro is a raging success. It isn't. As I pointed out, all the EU has done is kicked the can down the road when it comes to Eurozone structural incompatibility. It is throwing good money after bad, and something will give eventually.

    Can we get something clear. Germany has NOT bailed anyone out. They have part loaned money to other European countries through an ESM fund including to Ireland WHO NOBODY HAS DEFAULTED ON THUS FAR. Stop reading the Dailymail and Daily Telegraph.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    Can we get something clear. Germany has NOT bailed anyone out. They have part loaned money to other European countries through an ESM fund including to Ireland WHO NOBODY HAS DEFAULTED ON THUS FAR. Stop reading the Dailymail and Daily Telegraph.

    Firstly, DON'T SHOUT. IT IS CONSIDERED RUDE TO WRITE IN CAPITAL LETTERS. Secondly, I suggest an urgent lesson in economics if you think Germany hasn't bailed anyone out. And I am still awaiting answers to the other points I raised above. Unemployment rates in the Eurozone? Debt to GDP of Ireland? Greece about to Leave? Yet you say life is rosy in the Eurozone? Great sense of humour.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    What's the debt to GDP ratio in Ireland? What's the unemployment rate in Ireland? See you in a few years for another bailout.

    What's the unemployment rate in Portugal?

    What's the unemployment rate in Spain?

    What's the unemployment rate in Cyprus?

    In Ireland our unemployment rate was bad but southern europe was dreadful. Our new government has got our unemployment rate from double to single figures. More needs to done on that score but we're a roaring sucess at the moment.

    Let's talk markets, at the moment a ten year UK gilt yields about 1.8%. That is what it costs the UK to borrow ten year money. The Irish ten year equivalent yield is 0.68%. That means international investors think Ireland is not only a better bet but a safer bet than the UK. You can check Bloomberg online to check the yields., they'll confirm.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    In Ireland our unemployment rate was bad but southern europe was dreadful. Our new government has got our unemployment brate from double to single figures. More needs to done on that score but we're a roaring sucess at the moment.

    Let's talk markets, at the moment a ten year UK gilt yields about 1.8%. That is what it costs the UK to borrow ten year money. The Irish ten year equivalent yield is 0.68%. That means international investors think Ireland is not only a better bet but a safer bet than the UK. You can check Bloomberg online to check the yields., they'll confirm.

    Not in Single figures yet stlll 10% which is terrible.
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/unemployment-rate

    The only reason for the cheaper borrowing rates is because the Euro is backed by Germany if it all goes belly up. Greece is an exception as it is beyond the abyss. There is no way that Ireland and the majority of countries would be entitled to borrow at those rates if they were out on their own.

    I will also ask again, what is the debt to GDP ratio of Ireland?

    Growth is good in Ireland yes, but to pretend everything is a raging success and you are out of the woods is simply not true.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    Firstly, DON'T SHOUT. IT IS CONSIDERED RUDE TO WRITE IN CAPITAL LETTERS. Secondly, I suggest an urgent lesson in economics if you think Germany hasn't bailed anyone out. And I am still awaiting answers to the other points I raised above. Unemployment rates in the Eurozone? Debt to GDP of Ireland? Greece about to Leave? Yet you say life is rosy in the Eurozone? Great sense of humour.

    Please explain to me how Germany has bailed anyone out in europe? Germany as a sole country does not bail out or loan countries monies on a solo basis but rather it part loans monies in a communal loan mechanism (ESM) to which it expects to be repaid. Thus far, the Irish, Spanish, Greek, Cypriots and Portuguese have availed of this fund and have never DEFAULTED thus far. So the Germans to date have not bailed out anyone in europe. STOP READING THE DAILYMAIL AND DAILY TELEGRAPH.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    Please explain to me how Germany has bailed anyone out in europe? Germany as a sole country does not bail out or loan countries monies on a solo basis but rather it part loans monies in a communal loan mechanism (ESM) to which it expects to be repaid. Thus far, the Irish, Spanish, Greek, Cypriots and Portuguese have availed of this fund and have never DEFAULTED thus far. So the Germans to date have not bailed out anyone in europe. STOP READING THE DAILYMAIL AND DAILY TELEGRAPH.

    FOR GOD'S SAKE, STOP SHOUTING AT ME IN CAPITAL LETTERS.

    I know it is hard for you to face reality, but here is some information for you on the fact that Germany is the main country keeping the Eurozone afloat.

    http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1112/will-germanys-bailout-save-europe.aspx

    http://www.businessinsider.com/why-germany-should-bail-out-italy-and-greece-2011-11?IR=T

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2960438/Germany-refuses-bail-Greece-without-budget-cuts-raising-risk-debt-riddled-country-leave-euro.html

    http://rt.com/news/bailout-greece-eurozone-germany-331/
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    Not in Single figures yet stlll 10% which is terrible.
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/unemployment-rate

    The only reason for the cheaper borrowing rates is because the Euro is backed by Germany if it all goes belly up. Greece is an exception as it is beyond the abyss. There is no way that Ireland and the majority of countries would be entitled to borrow at those rates if they were out on their own.

    I will also ask again, what is the debt to GDP ratio of Ireland?

    Growth is good in Ireland yes, but to pretend everything is a raging success and you are out of the woods is simply not true.

    Growth is good in Ireland? We're the best in the eurozone. We're the best in the whole of EU, including Britain. Our unemployment rate has gone from 15% to 10% in four years. We can borrow money at a third of the cost on international markets to the UK, we're beginning to boom again, something the Scots could do if they were independent
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    Growth is good in Ireland? We're the best in the eurozone. We're the best in the whole of EU, including Britain. Our unemployment rate has gone from 15% to 10% in four years. We can borrow money at a third of the cost on international markets to the UK, we're beginning to boom again, something the Scots could do if they were independent

    I agreed with you that Growth is good in Ireland so why the question mark? But you've completely ignored the rest of my post so I am not sure why I bother replying? Ireland is certainly not out of the woods.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    MTUK1 wrote: »

    I'm going to give you a short lesson in economics. Germany has part loaned money at penal interest rates to bailout countries, they made a profit on them selfishly. Second because Germany was seen as a safe haven they saved billions on interest loans by having extra cheap loans. Germany loan money through an EFSF/ESM loans to euro countried who have never defaulted. Not only has Germany not lost one cent or euro in the euro crisis they have savagely and disgracefully profited by loaning money to bailout countries at a premium and profited by low interest rates during the crisis. STOP READING THE DAILYMAIL AND DAILY TELEGRAPH.
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    Growth is good in Ireland? We're the best in the eurozone. We're the best in the whole of EU, including Britain. Our unemployment rate has gone from 15% to 10% in four years. We can borrow money at a third of the cost on international markets to the UK, we're beginning to boom again, something the Scots could do if they were independent

    As anyone honest will tell you in Ireland it is all fine on the surface but people are up to their eyeballs in debt as is the country. Healthcare is abysmal if you have to rely on a medical card and inheritance tax is punitive particularly if you don't have kids to leave things to as the Irish government takes a third of everything even on tiny legacies.

    If debt delivers growth and prosperity and ridiculous house prices - in Dublin anyway - the Irish are world class.

    But the bankers of course love the Irish - they basically own the country which the politicians sold to them very cheaply.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    I'm going to give you a short lesson in economics. Germany has part loaned money at penal interest rates to bailout countried, they made a profit on them selfishly. Second because Germany was seen as a safe haven they saved billions on interest loans by having extra cheap loans. Germany loan money through an EFSF/ESM loans to euro countried who have never defaulted. Not only has Germany not lost one cent or euro in the euro crisis they have savagely and disgracefully profited by loaning money to bailout countries at a premium and profited by low interest rates during the crisis. STOP READING THE DAILYMAIL AND DAILY TELEGRAPH.

    You're capital letters are extremely rude, as well as the fact you fail to address pretty much most of what I say which is annoying, so this will be my last response to you. I would agree with you that Germany will have profited on lending the money, but pretending that the loans are not bailouts is especially disingenuous. Without them, what would the Eurozone have done? There is a time which can't come soon enough hopefully with a Greek Exit where Germany is going to have to face reality, and admit that this project is a disaster.
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    MTUK1MTUK1 Posts: 20,077
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    As anyone honest will tell you in Ireland it is all fine on the surface but people are up to their eyeballs in debt as is the country. Healthcare is abysmal if you have to rely on a medical card and inheritance tax is punitive particularly if you don't have kids to leave things to as the Irish government takes a third of everything even on tiny legacies.

    If debt delivers growth and prosperity and ridiculous house prices - in Dublin anyway - the Irish are world class.

    But the bankers of course love the Irish - they basically own the country which the politicians sold to them very cheaply.

    Exactly, they are doing exactly what they did before they got into trouble. See them in a few years for another bailout.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 872
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    MTUK1 wrote: »
    You're capital letters are extremely rude, as well as the fact you fail to address pretty much most of what I say which is annoying, so this will be my last response to you. I would agree with you that Germany will have profited on lending the money, but pretending that the loans are not bailouts is especially disingenuous. Without them, what would the Eurozone have done? There is a time which can't come soon enough hopefully with a Greek Exit where Germany is going to have to face reality, and admit that this project is a disaster.

    To me, a bailout and a loan are two separate things. A bailout is a digout, free money if you wish. Not one eurozone country has got this. We got loans. Secondly the reason I refuse to use the word bailout is, because we in Ireland and elsewhere had to pay a premium to the Germans and rest of Europe. So you see, it was never a bailout. Plus part of the loaned money to Ireland at premium rates from Germany and the rest of europe to Ireland went back to repay German and European bankers and bondholders who immorally were repaid. So we in Ireland were not bailed out, we were loaned shark loans by our so called friends in Europe and finally in 2015 we are the fastest growing economy in the whole of the EU and I say screw europe, screw Germany and screw Merkel, we beat the c-unts.
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    mRebelmRebel Posts: 24,882
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    No it is not. Don't believe everything you read in the Mail or Telegraph.

    Anxiety is not confined to the Mail and Telegraph, or to concern about the euro. There is a fear, one I share, that Grexit could be like an avalanche on the world financial system, i.e. a small ball rolling down a hill and growing ever bigger as it does so.
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    KiteviewKiteview Posts: 9,246
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    I'm going to give you a short lesson in economics. Germany has part loaned money at penal interest rates to bailout countries,

    This is incorrect.

    Monies are loaned by various funds - the IMF, the (EU wide) EFSM and the (Eurozone) EFSF/ESM.
    These raise money on the international markets by selling bonds to investors.

    The funds then loans the monies received from the markets at a small mark-up to the "bailout" countries.

    The mark-up covers the cost of administering the fund AND the very real risk that a creditor might default (which would leave all the countries backing the fund on the hook for a significant loss as they would still need to pay back the original monies raised from investors).

    If any "profit" remains after all the above, it is distributed to all fund member countries - both the creditor AND debtor countries.

    Thus, to take a fund that both Germany & the UK participate in; if the EFSM raises funds at let's say 4% from them markets, they'll loan monies at, let's say, 4.25% or 4.5% to the "bailout country". A "bailout country" would typically need to pay at least double that rate to the market were it to raise funds independently (at all stages of its crisis bar the tail-end of their bail-out when their market rate would fall rapidly as things return to normal non-bailout conditions).

    A "bailout country" therefore in effect receives "subsidised" loans during its financial crisis as those loans are massively cheaper then they'd get otherwise.

    The fund member countries acting as guarantors expose themselves to considerable risk to help a bailout country (since any country in a bailout situation is at very real risk of default as otherwise they wouldn't have needed a bailout in the first place).

    Any profit a fund guarantor country - be it creditor or debtor - earns from any of the funds involved to date is quite small in comparison to the risk they have incurred. Ideally, of course, they shouldn't suffer any loss at all (and it is bizarre that you seem to expect Germany to have done so) but a default by Greece, for instance, might well wipe out any profit made to date by the fund guarantor countries many times over.

    That it should be pointed out would hurt all EU countries as all are involved with one or more of funds mentioned above.
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    KiteviewKiteview Posts: 9,246
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    Plus part of the loaned money to Ireland at premium rates from Germany and the rest of europe to Ireland went back to repay German and European bankers and bondholders who immorally were repaid.

    You are not seriously suggesting they were no Irish bondholders of Irish government & banks bonds, are you?

    Why do you think all the EU governments have fallen over themselves to pay their bonds and to ensure their banks could do so also?

    It is because: a) bonds are usually held in large quantities by domestic investors and institutions, so there is massive risk of a boomerang effect in the event of a deliberate default and b) under EU law, all EU bondholders MUST be treated equally - there are no "German", "British", "Irish" bondholders in so far as the law is concerned. You either burn everyone or no one - and governments don't want to burn large parts of their domestic population and businesses if they can help it.
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    KiteviewKiteview Posts: 9,246
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    If debt delivers growth and prosperity and ridiculous house prices - in Dublin anyway - the Irish are world class.

    You do realise that is what we have done here in the UK?

    Even millionaires are priced out of some parts of London at this stage.

    And the latest OECD forecast claims we'll still have a significant deficit - funded by increasing debt - until 2020 which is long after most of the "bailed-out" countries have eliminated theirs.
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