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Unemployment Falls To Near 6 Year Low of 6.4%

David_JamesDavid_James Posts: 144
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UK unemployment fell by 132,000 to 2.08 million in the three months to June, official figures show.

The Office for National Statistics said the unemployment rate also fell to 6.4% in the quarter, down from 6.5% in May.

It means the unemployment rate is at its lowest level for nearly six years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28768552

Some other snippets of information:

> Youth unemployment down 102,000 in the quarter, the biggest quarterly fall on record.
> Unemployment fell by 437,000 in the year, the biggest yearly fall in 25 years.
> Around 80% of the jobs created in the last year have gone to British nationals.
> Wage growth of 0.6% on the year is the lowest since 2001.
> Majority of the jobs created (84%) are FULL time jobs. Men working part time has fallen.
> Claimant count fell by 33,600 in July, to 1.01 million, the lowest since September 2008, and the biggest yearly fall in the claimant count on record.


Some more great news on Unemployment. The ONS says wage growth is still affected by an unusually high number of employees deferring bonus payments because of last years income tax cut.
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    smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    Extremely good news. Not long to go now before it gets down to the 2000-1996 level of 5%, and at last below the level in 1997. However, it would be interesting to see the figures in term of full time equivalents, as there is a suspicion that many of these jobs are part time
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    jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 64,004
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    Good news and hopefully it will continue to fall.
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    David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    Extremely good news. Not long to go now before it gets down to the 2000-1996 level of 5%, and at last below the level in 1997. However, it would be interesting to see the figures in term of full time equivalents, as there is a suspicion that many of these jobs are part time

    The growth in full time jobs year on year was 3.2%. The growth in part-time jobs was 1.6%.
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    Kiko H FanKiko H Fan Posts: 6,546
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    When do interest rates go up?
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    smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    David Tee wrote: »
    The growth in full time jobs year on year was 3.2%. The growth in part-time jobs was 1.6%.

    Thanks. Do you know whether these jobs are, on average, paying the living wage or are the vast majority very low paid so income tax receipts will not rise significantly.
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    David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    Kiko H Fan wrote: »
    When do interest rates go up?

    When Carney feels like it. It can't be long now though, surely.
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    PrestonAlPrestonAl Posts: 10,342
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    some excellent news. Although such big jumps may indicate a smaller rise when the next stats are out (to balance any discrepancies).

    Are wage increases on par with inflation yet?
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    smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    Does anyone know what the seasonally adjusted figures are like?
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    ecco66ecco66 Posts: 16,117
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    David Tee wrote: »
    When Carney feels like it. It can't be long now though, surely.
    I'm not so sure - nominal wage growth was down 0.2% in the quarter. However without bonuses it was +0.6% so still weak.
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    ecco66ecco66 Posts: 16,117
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    PrestonAl wrote: »
    some excellent news. Although such big jumps may indicate a smaller rise when the next stats are out (to balance any discrepancies).

    Are wage increases on par with inflation yet?
    Not yet, no. It's a very odd phenomenon.
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    jmclaughjmclaugh Posts: 64,004
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    PrestonAl wrote: »
    Are wage increases on par with inflation yet?

    No, but hopefully as the slack in the labour market is taken up that will change.
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    spiney2spiney2 Posts: 27,058
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    this thread is a tory party political broadcast.

    "theyre jobs, Jim, but not as we know them".
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    spiney2spiney2 Posts: 27,058
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    money suppply inflation is irrelevant. what matters is various cost of living indices ......
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    wazzyboywazzyboy Posts: 13,350
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    Self-employment has been responsible for almost half of the rise in employment over the last year. Pay for this group is not included in ONS stats.
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    Kiko H FanKiko H Fan Posts: 6,546
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    David Tee wrote: »
    When Carney feels like it. It can't be long now though, surely.

    Carney says one thing then does another. He needs to have conviction in his decisions.
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    ecco66ecco66 Posts: 16,117
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    The BoE has reduced NAIRU (Non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) from 6.5% to 5.5%. It has also upgraded GDP growth to from 3.4% to 3.5% for this year and from 2.9% to 3.0% next year.

    It has also halved wage growth from 2.5% to 1.25% for this year.
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    David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    Thanks. Do you know whether these jobs are, on average, paying the living wage or are the vast majority very low paid so income tax receipts will not rise significantly.

    They don't split out wage increases by new jobs but in May 2010 the average full pay for all jobs was £23,646. It's now (i.e. including all the new jobs) £24,900. Back of a **** packet: If all the additional jobs were being paid less than the LW, the average pay of all the remaining jobs would need to be above 2% every year since 2010 for that growth in average full pay to be true.
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    David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    Kiko H Fan wrote: »
    Carney says one thing then does another. He needs to have conviction in his decisions.

    I think he was as bamboozled as the rest us when inflation fell quite so sharply. For me, the issue is much more tied up in what he said, rather than what he's done. A lesson I'm sure he's learned, too.
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    ecco66ecco66 Posts: 16,117
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    David Tee wrote: »
    I think he was as bamboozled as the rest us when inflation fell quite so sharply. For me, the issue is much more tied up in what he said, rather than what he's done. a lesson I'm sure he's learned, too.
    He appears to want to tighten, but can't with such low wage growth and a lower NAIRU.
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    David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    ecco66 wrote: »
    He appears to want to tighten, but can't with such low wage growth and a lower NAIRU.

    I agree.
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    BrokenArrowBrokenArrow Posts: 21,665
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    David Tee wrote: »
    I think he was as bamboozled as the rest us when inflation fell quite so sharply. For me, the issue is much more tied up in what he said, rather than what he's done. A lesson I'm sure he's learned, too.

    If inflation falls further he may have to cut rates not raise them.

    Right now there there is no inflationary pressure and thus no need to do anything.

    Re The jobs figures...... Hooray for seasonal jobs :)
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    CharlotteswebCharlottesweb Posts: 18,680
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    Re The jobs figures...... Hooray for seasonal jobs :)

    Not sure it is that, there is a drive to self-employment coming from the Job Center advisers and the various private companies tasked with getting people into work.

    The reason I highlight this is that there has been a quantifiable rise on self employed people, which I attribute to this process. As someone who started out self employed and built a business, I would never suggest this is a bad thing overall, however, not everyone is suited to such endeavors, and as a route to bumping up employment numbers whilst maintaining benefits through in work claims this rise in self employment also gives some explanation to the continued rise in the benefit bill.

    As ever whatever party is in office, I think there is some good news in there, but a lot of fluff masquerading as good news hiding within the numbers.
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    Drunken ScouserDrunken Scouser Posts: 2,645
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    wazzyboy wrote: »
    Self-employment has been responsible for almost half of the rise in employment over the last year. Pay for this group is not included in ONS stats.

    A great deal of the rise in self-employment is simply down to ageing baby boomers not wanting to retire. They're often only doing the odd job here and there, are not earning much money, and are lowering the overall productivity figures.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 4,074
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    For self employment there are also all the immigrants. For example 60% of Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants are self-employed or claiming to be self-employed, with many receiving in working tax credits, etc; and some are doing so fraudulently as part of large criminal rings exploiting the welfare system.
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    ecco66ecco66 Posts: 16,117
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    For self employment there are also all the immigrants. For example 60% of Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants are self-employed or claiming to be self-employed, with many receiving in working tax credits, etc; and some are doing so fraudulently as part of large criminal rings exploiting the welfare system.
    As soon as you become one, a Big Issue seller has access to the welfare system.
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