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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 2)

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    radio4extracrapradio4extracrap Posts: 2,933
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    Strange how the universally reviled Daily Mail becomes a bastion of truth and integrity when they print an anti-UKIP story.

    Yes. It certainly is getting dirty.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/02/19/ukip-closing-in-on-tories-in-three-seats_n_6711440.html?1424346098&utm_hp_ref=uk
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    CRTHDCRTHD Posts: 7,602
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    Boyard wrote: »
    Yeah they can pretty much get away with it by just ignoring positive Labour stories and focusing on the positive Tory ones.

    The BBC are as bad in the opposite direction.

    Had Labour been in power this week, the BBC would have been -":)And there's more good news on the economy, inflation and unemployment:)".

    But because it's not down to Labour, the news is delivered very matter of fact, with lots of negative caveats, in an attempt to down-play it.

    And now back to our main Tory-bashing story, the fat cats are at it again folks.

    I can't watch BBC TV news these days. I prefer to listen to BBC radio (4) news, which at least gives a more in-depth analysis, but I still have to apply the left-bias filter.
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    Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    As of Labour too.

    Or you can look at it another way, the final outcome of the 2010 election was almost exactly the same in seats and vote share as what the polls were picking up at the beginning of the year, five months of campaigning and campaigning gaffes ultimately made little difference. In other words by now most voters have at least made up their mind as to who they wont be voting for and whether or not the current Government deserves another term.
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    Gregory ShapeGregory Shape Posts: 2,595
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    Ha, brilliant. So from exactly the same survey we have:

    Huffington Post:
    Polls Show Ukip Within Striking Distance Of Three Tory Seats.

    Daily Mail:
    Blow for Farage as polls reveal Ukip is poised to lose ALL its key marginal battles against the Tories

    The ability to think for oneself is going to be the difference in this election. Guardian readers take note.
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    Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    CRTHD wrote: »
    The BBC are as bad in the opposite direction.

    Had Labour been in power this week, the BBC would have been -":)And there's more good news on the economy, inflation and unemployment:)".

    But because it's not down to Labour, the news is delivered very matter of fact, with lots of negative caveats, in an attempt to down-play it.

    And now back to our main Tory-bashing story, the fat cats are at it again folks.

    I can't watch BBC TV news these days. I prefer to listen to BBC radio (4) news, which at least gives a more in-depth analysis, but I still have to apply the left-bias filter.

    Seriously, have a look at the way the BBC reports any story relating to Ed Milliband, any image of him they use is almost invariably a still frame of him a particularly geeky expression or awkward smile while an image of Cameron is almost always an official posed photo released by Tory HQ or Downing Street.

    The BBC may be less biased than other more overtly Tory media outlets but lets not kid ourselves they are rooting for Labour, and yes, there are good reasons to post caveats about economic data as it isn't all good news. Borrowing this year will be at least £80 billion more than Osborne originally planned, median wages are still largely stagnant, there are significant productivity issues relating to our economy and key productive sectors like manufacturing, energy and construction are certainly not booming. Falling oil prices are good news at the petrol pumps but don't forget oil and gas companies contribute billions to the treasury in taxes and employ some 400,000 people in the UK, most of them high paid/skilled jobs, all those are currently hanging in the balance.

    Plus given the extent of the deficit, the cuts to services and the huge sums the Government pumped into the banking sector at the moment of crisis do you not think the revelation that one of the UKs biggest banks has been involved in massive tax fraud and money laundering, which may have been reported to the Treasury years ago and is now being investigated by the Swis autherities worthy of significant airtime?
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    smudges dadsmudges dad Posts: 36,989
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    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    Seriously, have a look at the way the BBC reports any story relating to Ed Milliband, any image of him they use is almost invariably a still frame of him a particularly geeky expression or awkward smile while an image of Cameron is almost always an official posed photo released by Tory HQ or Downing Street.

    The BBC may be less biased than other more overtly Tory media outlets but lets not kid ourselves they are rooting for Labour, and yes, there are good reasons to post caveats about economic data as it isn't all good news. Borrowing this year will be at least £80 billion more than Osborne originally planned, median wages are still largely stagnant, there are significant productivity issues relating to our economy and key productive sectors like manufacturing, energy and construction are certainly not booming. Falling oil prices are good news at the petrol pumps but don't forget oil and gas companies contribute billions to the treasury in taxes and employ some 400,000 people in the UK, most of them high paid/skilled jobs, all those are currently hanging in the balance.

    Plus given the extent of the deficit, the cuts to services and the huge sums the Government pumped into the banking sector at the moment of crisis do you not think the revelation that one of the UKs biggest banks has been involved in massive tax fraud and money laundering, which may have been reported to the Treasury years ago and is now being investigated by the Swis autherities worthy of significant airtime?

    Before anyone complains about how the BBC treats Labour/UKIP/Lib Dems/Conservatives (delete as appropriate) you should have a look at how they treat the SNP.

    Nick Robinson edits a Q&A session to show Salmond refused to answer a question, but the unedited footage showed him going into detail on the answer
    Question Time allows a question about SNP policies, without any SNP person to defend themselves, including xenophobic ranting from a UKIP representative
    The general attitude to any Scottish news is to ignore it unless it's really bad, then gloat in it (Scotland is a long way from BBC HQ in London)
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    deptfordbakerdeptfordbaker Posts: 22,368
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    jjnejjne Posts: 6,580
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    As of Labour too.

    I've seen many examples of "have -- of" misuse but that takes the prize.
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    BanglaRoadBanglaRoad Posts: 57,587
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    Before anyone complains about how the BBC treats Labour/UKIP/Lib Dems/Conservatives (delete as appropriate) you should have a look at how they treat the SNP.

    Nick Robinson edits a Q&A session to show Salmond refused to answer a question, but the unedited footage showed him going into detail on the answer
    Question Time allows a question about SNP policies, without any SNP person to defend themselves, including xenophobic ranting from a UKIP representative
    The general attitude to any Scottish news is to ignore it unless it's really bad, then gloat in it (Scotland is a long way from BBC HQ in London)

    I believe that Nicola S is on QT tonight so she will get the SNP message across loud and clear. Just a shame that the UKIP deputy leader is not there to have his wee rant for she would rip him to pieces.
    Little anyone can do about perceived bias until one of the broadcasters slips up and I can see Sky News doing this soon
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    radio4extracrapradio4extracrap Posts: 2,933
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    jjne wrote: »
    I've seen many examples of "have -- of" misuse but that takes the prize.

    Thanks. You are welcome.
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    bass55bass55 Posts: 18,394
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    Ha, brilliant. So from exactly the same survey we have:

    Huffington Post:
    Polls Show Ukip Within Striking Distance Of Three Tory Seats.

    Daily Mail:
    Blow for Farage as polls reveal Ukip is poised to lose ALL its key marginal battles against the Tories

    The ability to think for oneself is going to be the difference in this election. Guardian readers take note.

    Ah, I see how it works now:

    Positive story for Ukip: fair/balanced.
    Negative Ukip story: biased/nonsense.

    Thanks for clearing that up.
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    tiger2000tiger2000 Posts: 8,541
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    CRTHD wrote: »
    The BBC are as bad in the opposite direction.

    Had Labour been in power this week, the BBC would have been -":)And there's more good news on the economy, inflation and unemployment:)".

    But because it's not down to Labour, the news is delivered very matter of fact, with lots of negative caveats, in an attempt to down-play it.

    And now back to our main Tory-bashing story, the fat cats are at it again folks.

    I can't watch BBC TV news these days. I prefer to listen to BBC radio (4) news, which at least gives a more in-depth analysis, but I still have to apply the left-bias filter.

    Utter rubbish, every news bulletin on BBC Radio said that there was 'more good news' on the economy and unemployment', if you want to see/hear bias look no further then the Tory Rags or Sky News who have already started their Tory Cheerleading in the run up to May 7th.
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    TelevisionUserTelevisionUser Posts: 41,417
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    Ha, brilliant. So from exactly the same survey we have:

    Huffington Post:
    Polls Show Ukip Within Striking Distance Of Three Tory Seats.

    Daily Mail:
    Blow for Farage as polls reveal Ukip is poised to lose ALL its key marginal battles against the Tories

    The ability to think for oneself is going to be the difference in this election. Guardian readers take note.

    ...and indeed Daily Mail readers who can ignore the editorial bias of that particular paper.

    The release of such detailed polling information can influence events because it shows local voters who the two top contenders are for the constituency and people might then change their vote accordingly to what they regard as the 'least worst' option rather than their preferred option.

    I'm not sure that Lord Ashcroft has helped his own party by openly publishing these results because it gives the impression that the upward momentum is with UKIP in those particular polling areas.
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    MajlisMajlis Posts: 31,362
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    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    Seriously, have a look at the way the BBC reports any story relating to Ed Milliband, any image of him they use is almost invariably a still frame of him a particularly geeky expression or awkward smile while an image of Cameron is almost always an official posed photo released by Tory HQ or Downing Street.

    The BBC may be less biased than other more overtly Tory media outlets but lets not kid ourselves they are rooting for Labour, and yes, there are good reasons to post caveats about economic data as it isn't all good news. Borrowing this year will be at least £80 billion more than Osborne originally planned, median wages are still largely stagnant, there are significant productivity issues relating to our economy and key productive sectors like manufacturing, energy and construction are certainly not booming. Falling oil prices are good news at the petrol pumps but don't forget oil and gas companies contribute billions to the treasury in taxes and employ some 400,000 people in the UK, most of them high paid/skilled jobs, all those are currently hanging in the balance.

    Plus given the extent of the deficit, the cuts to services and the huge sums the Government pumped into the banking sector at the moment of crisis do you not think the revelation that one of the UKs biggest banks has been involved in massive tax fraud and money laundering, which may have been reported to the Treasury years ago and is now being investigated by the Swis autherities worthy of significant airtime?

    If the economic news is as dire as you say why would the BBC be supporting the Tories - they never have in the last 30 years
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    alfamalealfamale Posts: 10,309
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    I think the Daily Mail have been a bit 'creative' as per usual with their reporting of that. For a start that PM poll only adds up to 53% and they haven't stated the actual question asked. Heres the full survey, try guess the table they've drawn these conclusions from (or dont bother as its tedious! ........... but i couldnt find the one.)
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Daily-Record-Final-Tables.pdf

    The one thing that is rarely mentioned on topic of SNP, is if the likely outcome of no majority occurs how vital is it whether the scottish seats are Labour or SNP? SNP most definitely will be using their 30-40 seats to oppose anything Tory and have stated they'll probably back the Labour Party on an individual bill by bill commons voting process, although i'm 99% certain Sturgeon would take Deputy PM and coalition given half a chance. Does it only become an issue if Tories end up with 30 or more seats than Labour, as other parties are more likely to look at minority govt support or coalition with the party that won the most seats?
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    Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    Majlis wrote: »
    If the economic news is as dire as you say why would the BBC be supporting the Tories - they never have in the last 30 years

    In case you hadn't noticed the broadcasters are required by law to be politically neutral, breaching that code is a breach of the law and the broadcasters can in theory lose their licence. The usual claim from the right is that the BBC is Labour biased, I was pointing out that its reporting of Ed Milliband and David Cameron could in fact be construed the other way.

    I was also pointing out to a particular poster who thought not saying everything was roses was a sign of bias to Labour that there are in fact some real and pressing problems ahead for Britain. If you can't accept that that's fine but even Osborne's figures are based on another massive private credit boom and what happens when that goes bust too?

    As I believe Peter Oborne said, the media have a duty to report the truth.
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    MajlisMajlis Posts: 31,362
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    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    In case you hadn't noticed the broadcasters are required by law to be politically neutral, breaching that code is a breach of the law and the broadcasters can in theory lose their licence. The usual claim from the right is that the BBC is Labour biased, I was pointing out that its reporting of Ed Milliband and David Cameron could in fact be construed the other way.


    If you really think that BBC are biased against Labour then I can only say where were you when we had all the rubbish from the BBC about going back to Wigan pier.

    As I believe Peter Oborne said, the media have a duty to report the truth.

    all media report their version of the 'truth' - there is no single version that everyone agrees on.
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    MartinPMartinP Posts: 31,358
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    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    Seriously, have a look at the way the BBC reports any story relating to Ed Milliband, any image of him they use is almost invariably a still frame of him a particularly geeky expression or awkward smile

    Um that's how he always looks :blush:
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    bass55 wrote: »
    Blow for Farage as latest Ashcroft poll reveals Ukip set to lose ALL of its key marginal battles against the Tories http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2960121/Blow-Farage-polls-reveal-Ukip-poised-lose-key-marginal-battles-against-Tories.html

    Well UKIP are ahead on the initial results in Boston and close or tied in the others - and then they do a reallocation of don't knows based on 2010 voting intentions (a sure way to skew the results against UKIP who only polled 3 per cent in 2010) and miraculously the Tories move ahead. Sorry if I don't have any confidence in the methodology! And still not voting Lib Dem - just because I did 5 years ago.

    You can produce any result you want in a poll - if you use a method that skews the results to deliver the result you want! Don't knows generally don't vote - and without them the results are rather different.
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    oathyoathy Posts: 32,639
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    I think its safe to say that was 100% a rogue poll

    YouGov/Sun poll CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRNS 6%
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    JerrybobJerrybob Posts: 1,685
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    Populus Online Poll LAB 32% CON 31% LDEM 9% UKIP 17%

    Isn't this the highest UKIP have been in a Populus poll?

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/568731398913302529
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    Gregory ShapeGregory Shape Posts: 2,595
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    bass55 wrote: »
    Many of us have long predicted UKIP's star would begin to fade as the election draws closer and their policies are properly scrutinised. And the real squeeze hasn't even begun yet.
    Jerrybob wrote: »
    Populus Online Poll LAB 32% CON 31% LDEM 9% UKIP 17%

    Isn't this the highest UKIP have been in a Populus poll?

    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/568731398913302529

    More 'expert' analysis. This forum is full of them...:D
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    jjwalesjjwales Posts: 48,572
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    jjne wrote: »
    I've seen many examples of "have -- of" misuse but that takes the prize.

    Yes, that did make the post a bit unclear!
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    BoyardBoyard Posts: 5,393
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    I suspect that daft Channel 4 show will have helped UKIP!
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    blueisthecolourblueisthecolour Posts: 20,127
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    Boyard wrote: »
    I suspect that daft Channel 4 show will have helped UKIP!

    UKIP is pretty much at the mercy of how much media attention they get. All publicity isn't always good publicity; but no publicity is always bad. Of course it doesn't help them either if the media attention is negative, unless the public views it as a deliberate attempt to smear them. The British are notorious for backing those they see as the underdog or oppressed and simplistic attacks will play into their hands.

    However if the media starts picking apart their manifesto enough it could be enough to split apart their support base. Attempting to appeal to both old school Tories and working class nationalist is simply unsustainable.
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