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The party leaders and their re-election chances
What does everybody think are the chances of one of the party leaders losing their seat in the General election?
Cameron has a majority of 22740
Milliband has a majority of 10909
Clegg has a majority of 15284
I think the last leader to lose a seat in a GE was Archibald Sinclair in 1945.
Any thoughts?
Cameron has a majority of 22740
Milliband has a majority of 10909
Clegg has a majority of 15284
I think the last leader to lose a seat in a GE was Archibald Sinclair in 1945.
Any thoughts?
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Comments
Ed Balls's majority is also incredibly slim
I think Milliband is safe unfortunately but will have a massive reduction in his Majority. Rotherham really isn't helping his cause at all.
Cameron is the safest one of all.
Harriet gets to meet the Queen and laughter can be heard in the UK from across the other side of the Atlantic.
Ball's Majority is only 1100 and that was on a Conservative in a Mining Town. I'd hate to tell all the Balls fans out there his seat will more than likely go to UKIP.
I'll be surprised if he keeps his seat will be incredibly shocked if he can raise his majority
That's not necessarily the case.
The Queen will ask the person most likely to command a majority of MPs in the Commons to form a government.
If Ed lost his seat, he would still remain party leader, and would then get the opportunity to form a government. A loyal labour MP in a safe seat would vacate his/her seat (to be rewarded with a peerage possibly) and EM would stand in the by-election and get back in to Parliament.
There is no stipulation that the Prime Minister has to be an MP, or even a member of the House of Lords.
Obviously if EM had lost his seat the damage to his authority would be massive and he may resign the party leadership immediately, in which case HH would automatically be party leader and then asked to form a government,
This is all hypothetical of course. The chances of a party getting a commons majority but the party leader losing their own seat is highly unlikely.
I think that all three will retain their seats. Miliband's and Clegg's majorities will be reduced.
He'd still become PM probably because some loyalist would resign and force a by election in a safer seat (and probably get a peerage for doing so).
Be prepared to be incredibly shocked. I can't stand Balls but he will survive. This was a new seat for him in 2010 and it is not a mining area but actually a commuter area with commuters in modern estates who work in the Leeds financial sector- it is a seat that would be Tory down south. Nevertheless despite being a marginal he will have the incumbency he didn't have at the last election and the large Lib Dem vote last time will be going Labour rather than Tory bound. Add to that the north have been reminded what the Tories are like. More Tory commuters moving in since 2010 won't end up being the deciding factor.
A lot of labour "marginals" like Balls' seat and Southampton Itchen are normally safe which had slashed majorities in 2010 as the Labour vote crashed across the country. I would expect their majorities to be more comfortable in May.
Take it from somebody who lives in around Outwood and Morley you've got it completely wrong.....
Outwood is a mining town granted the pits have closed but the area is still a mining area. It's like South Wales. Yes Outwood has some nice new builds but the majority off it are all terrace houses. Morley has no money in it what so ever. The town centre is either a Charity shop or a closed unit.
Yes it was a new seat in 2010. This is a traditional Labour area. Wakefield is so Red it could be a communist strong hold. We hate Thatcher and love our Unions. The Lib Dem vote means jack here. We're not in the posh areas of Milton Keynes we're an old industrial sector.
No the Conservatives moving in to the area if they actually have because they're more likely to move to Weatherby, Harrogate and York than Wakefield and South Leeds. The fact we have stupidly high youth employment and a lot of Eastern Europeans taking the lower rung jobs will be a bigger decider on the way people will vote and they will vote UKIP.
Let's take the Heywood and Middleton by election last year where Labour lost a 6000 majority down to 600. This is also a supposed safe Labour area. Balls has no chance of getting back in.
Please do not lecture me about the place I have lived in for 26 year with some information you've googled. When I've lived, worked and been educated in the area
Wow. That's the first time I've seen "Ed Balls" and "incredibly slim" being used in the same sentence
Osbourne, May and Cooper are almost certainly safe. Murphy is 50/50 depending on the SNP.
Turnout in by-elections is typically much lower than General Elections, labour's majority in Heywood and Middleton will be much more comfortable in May.
Local knowledge or not I would be very surprised if Ed Balls is not reelected.
Yes I realize that by elections have lower turn out but you can't blame low turn out for UKIP having a rise of 10,000 votes from 1215 up to 11,016. What you can blame on is that UKIP are a popular party up north in Yorkshire and Greater Manchester.
IF Ed Balls does get reelected it will be by a few hundred. Lucas got more of a majority in Brighton and she's was in a 'minor' party at the time.
I know a lot of you on the left think Labour has got Yorkshire in the bag but the game has changed. UKIP is going to be a massive factor up here.
Sorry but bye bye Balls
Ed Balls losing his seat would be the best thing possible for Yvette Cooper's career. She could then run for the leadership without the hindrance of her husband on the scene.
If you think Ed Balls is going to lose to UKIP then you clearly do not know the area you live in.