That NOP poll is slightly out of line with the rest, all of which show a small Labour lead and have done for most of the last few years.
The Conservatives are relying on a big giveaway in the next budget immediately before the election. It will probably work, but not enough to give them a majority. Of course in between now and then we have events.
That NOP poll is slightly out of line with the rest, all of which show a small Labour lead and have done for most of the last few years.
The Conservatives are relying on a big giveaway in the next budget immediately before the election. It will probably work, but not enough to give them a majority. Of course in between now and then we have events.
I hate to say it but tell me the pollster and I will probably predict the poll result - UKIP, Tory and LD scores always vary dramatically between pollsters depending on methodology and weighting. Cos they can't all be right - and they haven't yet had the chance to be tested in a five party general election world rather then a 3 party one in England.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Latest UNS projection puts Labour on course for a 26 seat majority, certainly could be a hell of a lot better, but with an election just a little over 3 months away, it could also be a hell of a lot worse.
The Tories really do have a mountain to climb if they want to even have a chance of being part of a coalition, and their chances of gaining a majority are not looking good at all,
So, we go into the new year on a cautiously optimistic note,
My best wishes for the new year to ALL who read this.
The Tories really do have a mountain to climb if they want to even have a chance of being part of a coalition, and their chances of gaining a majority are not looking good at all,
Which would be Labour's lowest majority victory to win an Election since 1964.
That's far too low for a secure government if you ask me.
Which I would gladdy accept because the Tories would be out of government and that will do for me, Also, it might very well only be a small majority, but it is a majority that Cameron would have been delighted with in May 2010, and I am certain would be delighted with in a little over 3 months time,
I may well be "too low for a secure government IF I asked you" but low or not, I can bet there would be no shortage of Tory supporters sneering and cheering in this very thread should THEY have such a "low" majority on the morning of May 8th.
Which would be Labour's lowest majority victory to win an Election since 1964.
That's far too low for a secure government if you ask me.
26 might be uncomfortably low but i believe that if you were to offer that to either Cameron or Miliband right now, both of them would snap your hand off.
Looks like Labours loses in Scotland could be worse than anyone thinks - 41 MP's reduced to just 3. A massive problem for Ed if he hopes to win power with a clear majority.
Who would have predicted that a year ago. Could SNP be a bigger story than UKIP in May?
Come May 8th the story will be that UKIP are dismayed that they have so few seats and Farage was not elected
The SNP are the only party who can look at the polls and feel confident of a good result in May
Salmond now 6/1 to serve as a minister under Ed Miliband government.
Be interesting if it happens - could be a constitutional crisis within a year if a Labour supporting SNP start voting on Laws that dont affect Scotland.
Comments
The Conservatives are relying on a big giveaway in the next budget immediately before the election. It will probably work, but not enough to give them a majority. Of course in between now and then we have events.
The figures:
Con 32%, Lab 36%, LD 6%, UKIP 16%;
I hate to say it but tell me the pollster and I will probably predict the poll result - UKIP, Tory and LD scores always vary dramatically between pollsters depending on methodology and weighting. Cos they can't all be right - and they haven't yet had the chance to be tested in a five party general election world rather then a 3 party one in England.
Doesn't seem the UKIP negative press has had any affect on this poll - quite the reverse.
Ouch
Latest UNS projection puts Labour on course for a 26 seat majority, certainly could be a hell of a lot better, but with an election just a little over 3 months away, it could also be a hell of a lot worse.
The Tories really do have a mountain to climb if they want to even have a chance of being part of a coalition, and their chances of gaining a majority are not looking good at all,
So, we go into the new year on a cautiously optimistic note,
My best wishes for the new year to ALL who read this.
The Fish 'n Chips (UKIP) are overcooked and soggy, and the cabbages and sprouts (Greens) are going to be left on the hob as usual.
The economy burgers (LibDem) are probably best left in the freezer, you don't know what's in them.
Happy Christmas everyone! Now, where's that shortbread (SNP)?
Ho, ho, ho
Which would be Labour's lowest majority victory to win an Election since 1964.
That's far too low for a secure government if you ask me.
Yup. We are well into hung parliament territory now. Labour & SNP & Lib Dem coalition is looking likely.
What about the 3 seat majority in 1974?
Also the Conservatives had a 5 year term with a 21 seat majority, despite it being effectively wiped out in 1996.
They won a 3 seat majority in 1974 and managed to hold out until May 1979, with a pact with the Lib Dems.
Major won a 21 seat majority in 1992 and went on for 5 years.
Heath won a 30 seat majority in 1970 and went for 3 and a half years, forced into an early election by the three day week.
Churchill won a 17 seat majority in 1951 and the Tories carried on for 4 years.
Which I would gladdy accept because the Tories would be out of government and that will do for me, Also, it might very well only be a small majority, but it is a majority that Cameron would have been delighted with in May 2010, and I am certain would be delighted with in a little over 3 months time,
I may well be "too low for a secure government IF I asked you" but low or not, I can bet there would be no shortage of Tory supporters sneering and cheering in this very thread should THEY have such a "low" majority on the morning of May 8th.
I'm aware of that, I was just basing it on Labour winning an Election after being the opposition party.
26 might be uncomfortably low but i believe that if you were to offer that to either Cameron or Miliband right now, both of them would snap your hand off.
By breaking ICM’s data into four different categories of seat, Curtice reveals Labour’s decline is sharpest in those supposedly heartland seats where it previously trounced the SNP by more than 25 points.
Whereas Labour’s Scotland-wide vote drops by 16 points, it falls by 22 points in these constituencies while the SNP surges by 26. That combination is sufficient to wipe out majorities that were always assumed to be impregnable, and Scottish Labour’s Westminster caucus is left shrivelling to just three MPs.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/12/alex-salmond-now-61-to-serve-as-a-minister-under-ed-miliband/
Who would have predicted that a year ago. Could SNP be a bigger story than UKIP in May?
Come May 8th the story will be that UKIP are dismayed that they have so few seats and Farage was not elected
The SNP are the only party who can look at the polls and feel confident of a good result in May
You may well be right, but it's a start and would guess UK politics will never be the same.
Be interesting if it happens - could be a constitutional crisis within a year if a Labour supporting SNP start voting on Laws that dont affect Scotland.
What fun..