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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)

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    Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    SULLA wrote: »
    They would vote against it even if they agreed with everything. That's the sort of people they are.

    You mean like the Tory whip who said they'd do the same to Labour even if meant crippling the armed forces?
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    AnnsyreAnnsyre Posts: 109,504
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    And his mum is Oscar winning actress and Hampstead Labour MP Glenda Jackson. Without those connections he probably couldn't even get a job with a local rag.

    Apparently Labour but has spent 4 years trashing Ed Miliband. Sorry I have no time for him.

    Glenda is no longer an M.P. She is not standing this time.
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    carnoch04carnoch04 Posts: 10,275
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    Jenzen wrote: »
    I hope that is the case, but dont feel as optimistic though. If labour did hold on to that many seats In Scotland I bet there will be another conspiracy theory doing the rounds about a fix again.

    I love living in a world where Labour winning 20 seats in Scotland is seen as a fix!
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    Annsyre wrote: »
    Glenda is no longer an M.P. She is not standing this time.

    Talk about picky!

    She has been the MP for over 20 years and having a famous mum who is Labour MP for Hampstead surely opens doors! He is an example of not what you know but who you know.
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    Annsyre wrote: »
    There will be trouble at Hackney polling stations because so many have been denied their votes due to the incompetence of the Council there.

    Why Hackney North and South are very safe Labour seats - it's not going to affect who wins.
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    BanglaRoadBanglaRoad Posts: 57,594
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    Rumours of the exit polls will start to circulate however post 8pm on the internet. You may be able to gauge the mood by 9pm when Sky start their election night coverage too. If Kay Burley looks even more miserable than usual the Tories may be in for a tough night!:D

    That is true! Sky should keep Kay only for reporting on royal babies being born. She is the undisputed queen of talking absolute bollocks and getting excited about nothing at all. Asking members of the public if they had seen the easel outside Buck House was her highlight from this months event.
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    elfcurryelfcurry Posts: 3,232
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    I said it before. This is all about Scotland. If the shy Labour vote is as high as expected added with tactical voting then all Labour needs to do in order to be the highest party is keep over 20 seats in Scotland.

    People expect the swing to the Tories but i'm more inclined to expect SNP converts going back to Labour at the final minute when they realise another five years of Conservatives is reality.
    I agree.

    Surely this is largely the reason Ed M distanced himself from SNP - so Scottish voters would not see the two parties votes as roughly equivalent (except on independence, obviously) - both leading to a leftish alliance to boot out the Tories.

    If he'd spoken warmly of a coalition with SNP he'd lose potential Labour voters in Scotland to SNP and reduce his overall strength. This way some will see the urgent need to vote for a better chance of a change of UK government.

    The Scots control this election, tipping the balance to the Left, but they throw away the chance to do so if they mostly embrace SNP and leave Labour short of the seats to oust the Tories.
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    James2001James2001 Posts: 73,671
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    Jenzen wrote: »
    I hope that is the case, but dont feel as optimistic though. If labour did hold on to that many seats In Scotland I bet there will be another conspiracy theory doing the rounds about a fix again.

    Let's be honest, the way they are, they'll be saying there's a conspiracy even if they mananged to win 58 seats- the fact they failed to win one would mean MI5 are involved.
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    northantsgirlnorthantsgirl Posts: 4,663
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    And his mum is Oscar winning actress and Hampstead Labour MP Glenda Jackson. Without those connections he probably couldn't even get a job with a local rag.

    Apparently Labour but has spent 4 years trashing Ed Miliband. Sorry I have no time for him.

    He really is an irritating berk. He has no 'tribal loyalty' to Labour at all. He is one of those uber Blairites who are extremely annoyed that they've had the keys to the party taken away from them. Unfortunately not all of them have buggered off, some are still undermining from within.
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    MC_SatanMC_Satan Posts: 26,512
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    James2001 wrote: »
    Let's be honest, the way they are, they'll be saying there's a conspiracy even if they mananged to win 58 seats- the fact they failed to win one would mean MI5 are involved.

    Rubbish. You have chosen to ignore just about every SNP supporter on here who has said for months they will get nothing like 58 seats.
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    iwearoddsocksiwearoddsocks Posts: 3,030
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    James2001 wrote: »
    Let's be honest, the way they are, they'll be saying there's a conspiracy even if they mananged to win 58 seats- the fact they failed to win one would mean MI5 are involved.

    Utter nonsense, as usual.
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    tiger2000tiger2000 Posts: 8,541
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    Ashcroft

    CON 33 (+1)
    LAB 33 (+3)
    LIB 10 (-1)
    UKIP 11 (-1)
    GRN 6 (-1)

    Dates 5th-6th

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/596236281761374208
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    James2001James2001 Posts: 73,671
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    MC_Satan wrote: »
    Rubbish. You have chosen to ignore just about every SNP supporter on here who has said for months they will get nothing like 58 seats.

    I wasn't being serious you know...
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    Rich Tea. wrote: »
    Mine has done, and yes I do know what I'm doing Wizzywick.

    The imperative is to remove the nasty Conservatives of Cameron & Osborne. The referendum will still come along soon enough without the Tories in power I feel sure. Events will make it have to.

    Yes - it may seem odd but UKIPs dream result is an unstable SNP Labour LD coalition and Cameron and Osborne defeated and gone gone gone.

    It's about the long term - this vote is for 5 years the EU is forever (well until the Eurozone collapses under a huge weight of debt and bank collapses!). Just look at France to see how unpopular the socialists are when idealism meets the real world.

    We want a more Eurosceptic Tory leader who might consider backing an out vote.

    I don't mind Ed Miliband - his heart is in the right place, I have no time for Cameron. If only the Tories had picked David Davis in 2005.
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    MC_SatanMC_Satan Posts: 26,512
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    James2001 wrote: »
    I wasn't being serious you know...

    You start a not serious post with 'Let's be honest'!
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    Deirdre BarlowDeirdre Barlow Posts: 298
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    Talk about picky!

    She has been the MP for over 20 years and having a famous mum who is Labour MP for Hampstead surely opens doors! He is an example of not what you know but who you know.

    That just shows you know nothing about how Labour candidates are selected.
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    bhoy07bhoy07 Posts: 25,036
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    I said it before. This is all about Scotland. If the shy Labour vote is as high as expected added with tactical voting then all Labour needs to do in order to be the highest party is keep over 20 seats in Scotland.

    People expect the swing to the Tories but i'm more inclined to expect SNP converts going back to Labour at the final minute when they realise another five years of Conservatives is reality.

    the poll last night was interesting when it showed SNP voters more likely to switch when presented with the ballot paper.

    Will be surprised if they end up with over 44% of the vote.
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    Mr_X_123Mr_X_123 Posts: 1,837
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    Think the Tories will be the largest party close to a majority. Shy Tories will confound the pollsters like they did in 1992. The polls don't even need to be that far out for that eventuality. Another Tory, Lib Dem coalition is my bet.

    I think that if this election had been 18 months ago, Labour would have walked it. As it is the Tories have probably managed to peddle enough fear, uncertainty and doubt to swing things in their favour.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 12,139
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    One thing that might go in Cameron's favour is that every poll and survey has had him as the preferred PM so undecideds might just swing it on that reason
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    Amanda_RaymondAmanda_Raymond Posts: 2,302
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    marke09 wrote: »
    One thing that might go in Cameron's favour is that every poll and survey has had him as the preferred PM so undecideds might just swing it on that reason

    undecideds are going 31 per cent - labour, 23- per cent- tories

    Cameron is liked by many but his party isn't and that's why he does better on polls then his party does
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    Rich Tea.Rich Tea. Posts: 22,048
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    Mr_X_123 wrote: »
    Think the Tories will be the largest party close to a majority. Shy Tories will confound the pollsters like they did in 1992. The polls don't even need to be that far out for that eventuality. Another Tory, Lib Dem coalition is my bet.

    I think that if this election had been 18 months ago, Labour would have walked it. As it is the Tories have probably managed to peddle enough fear, uncertainty and doubt to swing things in their favour.
    The "double whammy" election of 1992. Of course history never repeats itself but I reckon it's going to come close to doing so. I also reckon even if the numbers look unfavourable for Cameron he will try and cling on no matter what. I bet the Tory press won't be using the same "squatter in No10" like they did for Brown last time if he is still there this time next week if it looks unfavourable for him.
    marke09 wrote: »
    One thing that might go in Cameron's favour is that every poll and survey has had him as the preferred PM so undecideds might just swing it on that reason
    Trouble is that he might not be there for long after the election even if the Conservatives remain in power. He said he will not stand next time but anyone who believes he will serve every day of a possible next 5 years is a fool. He'll end up gone much sooner than later, maybe of his party's deciding and not his.
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    heikerheiker Posts: 7,029
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    undecideds are going 31 per cent - labour, 23- per cent- tories

    Cameron is liked by many but his party isn't and that's why he does better on polls then his party does

    You can read the mind of an undecided voter before they've decided :o
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    Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    marke09 wrote: »
    One thing that might go in Cameron's favour is that every poll and survey has had him as the preferred PM so undecideds might just swing it on that reason

    James Callaghan had a 19% lead over Mrs Thatcher on the "best PM" question going into the 1979 election. She secured a 7% lead in the popular vote on polling day.
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    blueisthecolourblueisthecolour Posts: 20,128
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    I've come back to the thread a bit early to ask a question - does anyone know of a good 'guide' to download and print off for tonight? One that has important seats and details of what to check for to see how each party is doing?
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    paulschapmanpaulschapman Posts: 35,536
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    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
    Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.
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