Thanks for all the discussion about the polls over the last couple of years. I know this thread is always here but it's been enjoyable to discuss the movements, however small.. and share opinions. Will be fascinating to see if the end result is the same as the polls are predicting. Cheers all. :kitty:
Has anyone pointed out yet that yesterday's YouGov poll might have shown the two parties level but it also recorded only 2.5% swing from Con to Lab in the key marginals. That won't be enough for Labour to win the 60 odd seats in England and Wales they need to get ahead of the Tories.
So the experts have had their say about seat predictions but do you think you could do a better job? Then try the for fun seat projection competition - many of you already have - entries close 9pm Thursday
On the Betfair odds for next GB PM, Milliband odds are drifting while Camerons are shortening. Cam 1.86 v Mili 2.18
I'm still unclear as to what they pay out on, though. Would Cameron have to get a Queen's speech through for his backers to win?
EDIT: After looking at the Betfair rules, it seems it's the PM who can indeed get a Queen's speech through. In which case, I find those odds surprising for Cameron. Looking at the seat predictions (even those on Betfair). I can't see how he can assemble enough support to pass the speech.
If the polls are to be believed there has been a small swing to Labour in the last 48 hours, even in the ones still showing a small Tory lead, all well within MOE of course so could mean absolutely nothing.
The odds reflect a) that as incumbent Cameron might get first dibs if it is very close and b) that those within the Labour camp are more pessimistic about the results than the published polls suggest whilst the Tories think they are doing better than the polls predict.
On the Betfair odds for next GB PM, Milliband odds are drifting while Camerons are shortening. Cam 1.86 v Mili 2.18
Odds are influenced by betting.
And in politics the betting is heavily influenced by delusion, not cold hard facts.. Many people bet on what they want to happen.
With things like horse racing it's a different story, many of the those betting on the horses have a very good idea as to the reality of the situation.
In horse racing the favourite is likely to win. But that does not apply in politics.
There will be trouble at Hackney polling stations because so many have been denied their votes due to the incompetence of the Council there.
Trouble due to the government's new individual electoral registration system you mean. Still it's working in the way they intended- those most likely to vote Labour are getting disenfranchised.
Trouble due to the government's new individual electoral registration system you mean. Still it's working in the way they intended- those most likely to vote Labour are getting disenfranchised.
The individual registration has worked everywhere else. In Hackney they found many discrepancies e.g. not being able to match people to the info given. There is bound to be a stink after the election.
Betfair's Exchange has a track record of calling political outcomes correctly; most recently calling a No vote at the Scottish Referendum as an 80% chance throughout the campaign, while the polls were calling it 50/50. What's more, we also correctly predicted a hung parliament in the 2010 General Election a full 21 days before the election date.
And in politics the betting is heavily influenced by delusion, not cold hard facts.. Many people bet on what they want to happen.
With things like horse racing it's a different story, many of the those betting on the horses have a very good idea as to the reality of the situation.
In horse racing the favourite is likely to win. But that does not apply in politics.
Betting essentially follows the polls.
It's the only solid information we have on how a political event is likely to go. The odds reflect the bets which reflect the evidence... i.e. the polls, skewed of course by people close to the parties themselves betting based on their own research (i.e. more polls, albeit private ones).
There are a lot of 'hunches' in play but these will largely self-cancel. It's all about the polls.
The odds reflect a) that as incumbent Cameron might get first dibs if it is very close and b) that those within the Labour camp are more pessimistic about the results than the published polls suggest whilst the Tories think they are doing better than the polls predict.
Where are you picking that up from? Just purely on the betting odds?
Comments
6th Jan - Lab 33 Con 33
6th May - Lab 33 Con 33
You would have got good money on that at the bookies!
Latest Ipsos-MORI poll:
CON - 36% (+1)
LAB - 35% (+5)
UKIP - 11% (+1)
LDEM - 8% (-)
GRN - 5% (-3)
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=2069432
On the Betfair odds for next GB PM, Milliband odds are drifting while Camerons are shortening. Cam 1.86 v Mili 2.18
Is that the last poll published before the Exit Poll?
I'm still unclear as to what they pay out on, though. Would Cameron have to get a Queen's speech through for his backers to win?
EDIT: After looking at the Betfair rules, it seems it's the PM who can indeed get a Queen's speech through. In which case, I find those odds surprising for Cameron. Looking at the seat predictions (even those on Betfair). I can't see how he can assemble enough support to pass the speech.
Remember that those odds are no better than a coin toss in truth. A 25-1 shot won the grand national after all!
Looks like greens coming back to Labour
Odds are influenced by betting.
And in politics the betting is heavily influenced by delusion, not cold hard facts.. Many people bet on what they want to happen.
With things like horse racing it's a different story, many of the those betting on the horses have a very good idea as to the reality of the situation.
In horse racing the favourite is likely to win. But that does not apply in politics.
Trouble due to the government's new individual electoral registration system you mean. Still it's working in the way they intended- those most likely to vote Labour are getting disenfranchised.
The individual registration has worked everywhere else. In Hackney they found many discrepancies e.g. not being able to match people to the info given. There is bound to be a stink after the election.
It doesn't really apply in Horse racing, just ask my empty pockets.
I am a Labour supporter, but i have a bad feeling the polls are wrong.
My opinion, late swing to conservatives making them clearly the biggest party and allowing them to form a coalition.
Much more likely that the previous 'corker' poll was wrong.
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2015-betting/general-election-2015-betfair-launches-betfair-predicts-app-250315-273.html
All 38 million of them?
Betting essentially follows the polls.
It's the only solid information we have on how a political event is likely to go. The odds reflect the bets which reflect the evidence... i.e. the polls, skewed of course by people close to the parties themselves betting based on their own research (i.e. more polls, albeit private ones).
There are a lot of 'hunches' in play but these will largely self-cancel. It's all about the polls.
Where are you picking that up from? Just purely on the betting odds?