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BSkyB shares rise on Vodafone bid rumours.

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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    1andrew1 wrote: »
    One theory about joint ventures is that they take up more than half the management time of fully-owned subsidiaries but provide only half the return or less as profits are split with other shareholders. I think some of the mobile phone companies are going through a similar divestment process at the moment.

    Other issues might be more personal here, ie has the break-up of Rupert Murdoch and Wendi Deng meant the company has less reason to be involved in this market?

    Or perhaps Fox was made an offer it couldn't refuse and felt it could get a better return from its money by investing elsewehere.

    Here's how Vodafone and Sky work together in New Zealand. (I appreciate that Sky has different ownership in each country.)
    http://www.vodafone.co.nz/tv/sky-with-broadband/

    I think that it might be to do with the fact they have failed to make much progress in China due to the fact there is still a lot of state control which Beijing is not exactly keen on relaxing, so they are better off focusing on India in which they have done better.

    Also I don't think Murodch's personal life would impact on 21st Century Fox considering the fact he play's little role day to day in that part of his empire (the "New" News Corp is a different sotry)

    As for Sky (New Zealand) well firstly Vodafone (New Zealand) now own the former TelstraClear cable network so they no longer need Sky (NZ) for tv services, secondly News Corp (which took on Murdoch's stake in the company) has recently sold its entire stake in the company (which is a even more bizzare sell-off), my view that Telecom New Zealand will end up buying it...

    My view is that rather than but BSkyB, Vodafone should buy Liberty Global...
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    1andrew1 wrote: »
    BSkyB shows no signs of interest in quad play so can't see it merging with O2. As previously discussed, an acquisition of BSkyB by Vodafone could make sense.

    As long as BT is willing to spend vast amounts of money on content rights for the sake of broadband, Vodafone buying BSkyB makes no sense whatsoever apart from wasting shareholders money...
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    samburrowssamburrows Posts: 1,671
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    As long as BT is willing to spend vast amounts of money on content rights for the sake of broadband, Vodafone buying BSkyB makes no sense whatsoever apart from wasting shareholders money...

    Actually I disagree. The benefit to Vodafone shareholders is:

    1 - Not sitting on a massive post divestment cash pile, which offers an extremely poor return on investment to its shareholders and institutional investors

    2 - Strengthening the status and size of the Company as an entity, which makes it less vulnerable to being bought in a hostile manner, which would not reflect the true worth or potential of Vodafone in an international context.

    The Directors of Vodafone need to do something in 2014, not least to save their jobs and positions on a FTSE Board. I really don't think the threat of being aggressively acquired can be overstated enough. Whether that 'something' is buying BSkyB I don't know, but it's easy to see how analysts have reached that conclusion as the gradual morphing of what were once discrete telecoms and media companies continues.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    samburrows wrote: »
    Actually I disagree. The benefit to Vodafone shareholders is:

    1 - Not sitting on a massive post divestment cash pile, which offers an extremely poor return on investment to its shareholders and institutional investors

    2 - Strengthening the status and size of the Company as an entity, which makes it less vulnerable to being bought in a hostile manner, which would not reflect the true worth or potential of Vodafone in an international context.

    The Directors of Vodafone need to do something in 2014, not least to save their jobs and positions on a FTSE Board. I really don't think the threat of being aggressively acquired can be overstated enough. Whether that 'something' is buying BSkyB I don't know, but it's easy to see how analysts have reached that conclusion as the gradual morphing of what were once discrete telecoms and media companies continues.

    I am not saying that Vodafone should not buy any companies whatsoever, rather they should focus on Pay TV/Broadband and avoid broadcasting completely. However Vodafone should look at several takeover targets such as Cable Companies in Europe and Mobile Operators elsewhere such as:

    ZON Optimus (Market Value is £3.4 Billion)

    ONO

    Ziggo (Market Value is £8.1 Billion)

    Liberty Global (Market Value is £33.7 billion)

    Bharti Airtel (Market Value is £134.4 billion)

    Telefónica (Mobile Operations)

    Axiata

    MTN Group

    Telecom Italia (Mobile Operations)

    TeliaSonera (Mobile Operations)/Turkcell/Megafon

    Telenor (Mobile Operations)/VimpelCom

    Tata Teleservices

    Softbank

    NTT DotCoMo
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    RileyMRileyM Posts: 2,075
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    I am not saying that Vodafone should not buy any companies whatsoever, rather they should focus on Pay TV/Broadband and avoid broadcasting completely. However Vodafone should look at several takeover targets such as Cable Companies in Europe and Mobile Operators elsewhere such as:

    MTN Group

    Would Vodafone really be interested in MTN Group, especially with it being South African based. Vodacom, (the Vodafone's operations in Africa) is also SA based and thus Vodafones competitor?

    Unless of course you mean interest in some parts of MTN Group (although I doubt even this is likely to happen).
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    mersey70mersey70 Posts: 5,049
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    There seems to be some good investment advice for Vodafone in this thread, I hope their board take note as it may well affect many pension funds.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    RileyM wrote: »
    Would Vodafone really be interested in MTN Group, especially with it being South African based. Vodacom, (the Vodafone's operations in Africa) is also SA based and thus Vodafones competitor?

    Unless of course you mean interest in some parts of MTN Group (although I doubt even this is likely to happen).

    The main reason why I want Vodafone to buy MTN is main due to the East/West African assets, which I see as a potental growth areas which Vodafone have very little presense in...

    Consolidating the South African market also helps and since they no longer operate in the US, the Iran operation would also remain...
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    samburrowssamburrows Posts: 1,671
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    I am not saying that Vodafone should not buy any companies whatsoever, rather they should focus on Pay TV/Broadband and avoid broadcasting completely.

    If you had said that two years ago I would have agreed with you, but the lines are just too blurred now. Sky are the second largest broadband provider in the UK, supply a substantial fixed line telephone service, own a rapidly growing fibre offering and also happen to be the premium content supplier and non-terrestrial television delivery network in the UK & Ireland. Many companies would kill for that level of vertical integration, which offers them a significant competitive advantage. They are also a FTSE-100 listed company which in less than two decades has become effectively 'blue-chip' - and is valued less than £10bn. Some extremely strong synergies plus the opportunity of acquiring a British company of this size which would limit the cultural difficulties of bringing together two companies and workforces of this size.

    ITN Source - your list of alternatives cannot offer Vodafone any of the above. Again, not saying that this is the right acquisition for Vodafone, but it's a great opportunity and the timing is right.
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    1andrew11andrew1 Posts: 4,088
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    I am not saying that Vodafone should not buy any companies whatsoever, rather they should focus on Pay TV/Broadband and avoid broadcasting completely. However Vodafone should look at several takeover targets such as Cable Companies in Europe and Mobile Operators elsewhere such as:

    ZON Optimus (Market Value is £3.4 Billion)

    ONO

    Ziggo (Market Value is £8.1 Billion)

    Liberty Global (Market Value is £33.7 billion)

    Bharti Airtel (Market Value is £134.4 billion)

    Telefónica (Mobile Operations)

    Axiata

    MTN Group

    Telecom Italia (Mobile Operations)

    TeliaSonera (Mobile Operations)/Turkcell/Megafon

    Telenor (Mobile Operations)/VimpelCom

    Tata Teleservices

    Softbank

    NTT DotCoMo

    Ziggo looks set to fall to Liberty Global so I would take that off your list.

    Vodafone's market cap is £115.25bn so unlikely to be able to acquire some of those you list.

    Telefonica is likely to have too many competition issues to be practical.

    As a foonote, I think some of your market caps may be wrong. Liberty Global is $35.16bn so in GBP is £21.42bn. I think the rest may be in their local currencies and not GBP.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    Let me explain why I have suggested these takeover targets in the first place:

    ZON Optimus - Boosting their presense in the Potugal Mobile market and gaining a cable network.

    ONO - Gaining a Cable Network in Spain (where they have a mobile network).

    Ziggo - Gaining a Cable Network in the Netherlands

    Liberty Global Gaining Cable Networks in Britain, Ireland, Germany, Eastern Europe and Central Europe.

    Bharti Airtel - Boosting their presense in the Indian (without a doubt a major growth area) and Central African markets (including introductions in Gabon and Zambia) as well as a introduction to Bangadesh, Sri Lankan, East Africa and West Africa. It is either the largest or second largest carrier in the markets it operates

    Telefónica (Mobile Operations) - Boosting their presense in the UK, Germany and Spain and opening up a strong postion in Latin America (Vodafone does not operate in this fast growing market)

    Axiata - Gaining a strong postion in Malaysia, Sri Lanka and other Asian Markets

    MTN Group - Gaining a presense in large parts of the gowing markets of Africa as well as boosting their presense in South Africa

    Telecom Italia (Mobile Operations) Boosting their presense in Italy and Brazil

    TeliaSonera (Mobile Operations)/Turkcell/Megafon - Gaining a presense in Russia/CIS + Scandinavia and bossting their presense in Turkey

    Telenor (Mobile Operations)/VimpelCom - Boosting their presense in Russia/CIS + Scandinavia as well as emerging markets in Asia

    Tata Teleservices - To colsolidate their presense in India

    Softbank - To return to the Japanese market

    NTT DotCoMo - To increase their presense in Japan

    Digicel - To gain a presense in various Carribean and Pacific markets.

    Hutchison 3G/Hutchison Telecommunications International

    SFR - To gain a presense in the French market

    WIND Hellas - To further boost their Greek operation

    Millicom - To boost their presense in Africa and Latin America

    After buying all those companies Vodafone will be the largest mobile network carrier in Albania, Algeria, Argentina, Armenia, Aruba, Azerbaijan, Bangadesh, Benin, Brazil, Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, Chile, Congo-ROC, Congo-DRC, Curaçao, Czech Republic, Dominica, El Salvador, Estonia, Egypt, Fiji, Finland, Gabon, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, India, Ireland, Italy, Ivory Coast, Jamaica, Kenya, Latvia, Liberia, Lithuania, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Malawi, Malta, Montenegro, Nauru, Nepal, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Swaziland, Sweden, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Turkey, Tonga, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uganda, Yemen, Zambia, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, and even the United Kingdom itself

    It all also be the second largest in Anguilla, Barbados, Bermuda, Boliva, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cayman Islands, Central African Republic, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, France, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Macau, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Moldova, Mozambique, The Netherlands, Nicaragua, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Serbia, Senegal, South Sudan, Sudan, Qatar, Uruguay and Zimbabwe

    Not only that but it will also be the third largest in Antigua and Barbuda, Austria, Australia, Belarus, British Virgin Islands, Guyana, Laos, Sierra Leone, Slovakia and Vietnam

    Lastly, it will end up owning 50% of the largest (and only) mobile operator in North Korea! :D
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    samburrowssamburrows Posts: 1,671
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    After buying all those companies


    You live in an absolute fantasy land!
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    samburrows wrote: »
    If you had said that two years ago I would have agreed with you, but the lines are just too blurred now. Sky are the second largest broadband provider in the UK, supply a substantial fixed line telephone service, own a rapidly growing fibre offering and also happen to be the premium content supplier and non-terrestrial television delivery network in the UK & Ireland. Many companies would kill for that level of vertical integration, which offers them a significant competitive advantage. They are also a FTSE-100 listed company which in less than two decades has become effectively 'blue-chip' - and is valued less than £10bn. Some extremely strong synergies plus the opportunity of acquiring a British company of this size which would limit the cultural difficulties of bringing together two companies and workforces of this size.

    ITN Source - your list of alternatives cannot offer Vodafone any of the above. Again, not saying that this is the right acquisition for Vodafone, but it's a great opportunity and the timing is right.

    If you where talking about a BSkyB before BT got involved in sports content, then I would be interested, but the Sky these days is facing VERY strong competition from BT which is eating up its core business model sports wise and Netflix is likely to do the same movie wise.

    If Vodafone DO buy BSkyB (if the Murdoch's agree, although their influence has declines of late) then they would have to spend vast amounts of money just to keep up with BT, who are willing to bet the company to beat Sky, now I am not saying Vodafone cannot afford to do this, but it is not a good way of making money.

    They are much better off buying Liberty Global, which contains several cable networks (including the UK, Ireland and counties home to Vodafone mobile ops) which offer fibre broadband and Pay TV, in other words they can give content to its customers without betting the whole company and not just here and in Ireland, but across Europe as well.

    But Vodafone should also look at expanding in fast growing markets like India and South America for example as well...
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    samburrows wrote: »
    You live in an absolute fantasy land!

    I am just pointing out the potental direction which Vodafone can focus towards...:D
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    1andrew11andrew1 Posts: 4,088
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    samburrows wrote: »
    If you had said that two years ago I would have agreed with you, but the lines are just too blurred now. Sky are the second largest broadband provider in the UK, supply a substantial fixed line telephone service, own a rapidly growing fibre offering and also happen to be the premium content supplier and non-terrestrial television delivery network in the UK & Ireland. Many companies would kill for that level of vertical integration, which offers them a significant competitive advantage. They are also a FTSE-100 listed company which in less than two decades has become effectively 'blue-chip' - and is valued less than £10bn. Some extremely strong synergies plus the opportunity of acquiring a British company of this size which would limit the cultural difficulties of bringing together two companies and workforces of this size.

    ITN Source - your list of alternatives cannot offer Vodafone any of the above. Again, not saying that this is the right acquisition for Vodafone, but it's a great opportunity and the timing is right.
    Sky's currently valued at £13.6bn. Agree with your analysis though.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    1andrew1 wrote: »
    Ziggo looks set to fall to Liberty Global so I would take that off your list.

    Vodafone's market cap is £115.25bn so unlikely to be able to acquire some of those you list.

    Telefonica is likely to have too many competition issues to be practical.

    As a foonote, I think some of your market caps may be wrong. Liberty Global is $35.16bn so in GBP is £21.42bn. I think the rest may be in their local currencies and not GBP.

    1: Vodafone should aim to buy LG as well.

    2: I understand that, so perhaps a plan merger would do the trick.

    3: Vodafone has no operations in Latin America for a start, in the UK considering the CC allowed the creation of EE, I don't see why they should stop a Vodafone UK-O2 UK combination, as for Czech Republic/Germany/Spain well even after such a merger, strong competition remains

    4: I got the market cap (in local currency) and conveted the sum to GBP£
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    samburrowssamburrows Posts: 1,671
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    1andrew1 wrote: »
    Sky's currently valued at £13.6bn. Agree with your analysis though.

    Thank you and my apologies, I was using a figure which has since been surpassed.
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    TelevisionUserTelevisionUser Posts: 41,421
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    It was UBS' somewhat idle speculations that started this hare running again but so far nothing's happened and so we might as well just wait until there's an actual takeover bid for Sky.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    1andrew1 wrote: »
    Sky's currently valued at £13.6bn. Agree with your analysis though.

    How can the value rise when BT Sport is starting to eat its lunch? :confused:
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    mersey70mersey70 Posts: 5,049
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    How can the value rise when BT Sport is starting to eat its lunch? :confused:

    I'm guessing that like most people who have posted in this thread I'm not an economist but i'd imagine there are multiple reasons why a stock would rise, potential must be high on the list.

    Look at Twitter, it's worth billions and it's stock has doubled since it's IPO yet it's never made a profit.
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    GARETH197901GARETH197901 Posts: 22,291
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    Vodafone should try and avoid the P**sing contest between Sky and BT and buy Libety Global, Ziggo, ONO etc in Europe...

    buying Liberty Global would in turn get them Virgin Media as well,could that finally give Virgin the money to compete against Sky
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    mersey70 wrote: »
    I'm guessing that like most people who have posted in this thread I'm not an economist but i'd imagine there are multiple reasons why a stock would rise, potential must be high on the list.

    Look at Twitter, it's worth billions and it's stock has doubled since it's IPO yet it's never made a profit.

    Well to be honest, Twitter (and Facebook) are massively overvalued in my view, I mean how can thhey be worth more than even the largest media groups?

    As of now however the future does not look good for Sky thanks to BT, who are gaining ground on one of Sky's core strength's, that is sports content...
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    mersey70mersey70 Posts: 5,049
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    Well to be honest, Twitter (and Facebook) are massively overvalued in my view, I mean how can thhey be worth more than even the largest media groups?

    As of now however the future does not look good for Sky thanks to BT, who are gaining ground on one of Sky's core strength's, that is sports content...

    Don't forget that the next round of EPL rights are up for negotiation relatively soon, it could be that neither Sky or BT get the lions share next time.

    Who knows, i'm not an Economist or Media Expert so it would be laughable for me to offer Vodafone advice but it's certainly interesting. I guess it's a case of watch this space :)
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    mersey70 wrote: »
    Don't forget that the next round of EPL rights are up for negotiation relatively soon, it could be that neither Sky or BT get the lions share next time.

    Who knows, i'm not an Economist or Media Expert so it would be laughable for me to offer Vodafone advice but it's certainly interesting. I guess it's a case of watch this space :)

    Considering how much BT Sport where willing to spend on European Games recently, I could see BT doing the same and taking the lions share in relation to EPL Rights, remember for them they consider it to be a life or death siutation for them in relation to broadband and they are prepaired to bet the whole company to keep Sky at bay.

    Of couse Sky could right back of 21st Century Fox is willing to bet the whole company and make sure Sky outspends BT, but they seem uninterested when it came to European Games recently however...

    Unless BT is willing to outspend BT then buying BSkyB is like buying a sinking ship and if they where willing then it would end up being poor value for money...
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    mersey70mersey70 Posts: 5,049
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    ITN Source wrote: »
    Considering how much BT Sport where willing to spend on European Games recently, I could see BT doing the same and taking the lions share in relation to EPL Rights, remember for them they consider it to be a life or death siutation for them in relation to broadband and they are prepaired to bet the whole company to keep Sky at bay.

    Of couse Sky could right back of 21st Century Fox is willing to bet the whole company and make sure Sky outspends BT, but they seem uninterested when it came to European Games recently however...

    Unless BT is willing to outspend BT then buying BSkyB is like buying a sinking ship and if they where willing then it would end up being poor value for money...

    If BT did get the lions share I think we can safely say the 'free with BT Broadband' deal would be history unless they massively increase the price of the broadband and they probably aren't daft enough to do that.

    I don't know how things will pan out and I certainly don't know what is in Vodafone's best interest (and with all due respect I doubt any of us do either) but there's one thing I am sure of, long term the punters will end up paying for it, make no mistake :)

    But it's all very interesting, that's for sure.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,967
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    mersey70 wrote: »
    If BT did get the lions share I think we can safely say the 'free with BT Broadband' deal would be history unless they massively increase the price of the broadband and they probably aren't daft enough to do that.

    I don't know how things will pan out and I certainly don't know what is in Vodafone's best interest (and with all due respect I doubt any of us do either) but there's one thing I am sure of, long term the punters will end up paying for it, make no mistake :)

    But it's all very interesting, that's for sure.

    Well considering how much they are prepaired to lose finanically in the current rights they now own which they already give away free to their broadband customers, what is stopping them doing the same to future EPL rights? At the vey least they will offer discounted broadband...

    Sky's growing strength in terms of broadband (they are now the second biggest) has really touched a raw nerve at BT, they now consider Sky to be public enermy No.1 and theyr consider that their future depends on beating Sky.

    In the end though one side will have to give in or both will end up falling, but yes the customer will end up paying in the long run to whichever side wins this battle.

    That is why I suggested that Vodafone should avoid this and buy LG insted, they have kept their distance in this battle and they will get the content anyway whoever wins...
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