BiB. I agree. It was a really good summary without the sensational nonsense usually associated with the media.
Interesting that INMARSAT's hotspot seems to be based on the plane maintaining pretty much an optimum speed and altitude. I can't think of a single, logical reason why someone would choose to set the autopilot to head off into the Southern Indian Ocean, and if someone other than the pilot or copilot desperately twiddled a few knobs in the hope it would do something, who knows what speed or altitude they might have set.
I found it very interesting and it told me (or reminded me of) a few things I may have missed previously.
First, the initial underwater pings that led to Ocean Shield being sent to the northern part of the search arc (level with Learmonth) were detected by HMS Echo. These were later re-checked and eliminated but not before Ocean Shield had started working its way south along the 7th arc... and ogf course it was soon stopped in its tracks by detecting its own set of four pings, which led to the lengthy but fruitless Bluefin 21 searching.
Second, I learned that it seems to have been the combined doppler effect on the plane's handshake signals of both the plane's movement *and* the satellite wobble around the equator, that allowed the northern arc to be eliminated.
Third, I learned exactly where the area of highest probability for MH370 is located. It's on the 7th handshake arc at about 28 degrees south according to tonight's programme and this can be seen on the following map (though it isn't marked):
...and it works out to be immediately above the '7' of the label 'Satellite Handshake Calculation #7'. This is 300 KM southwest of where Hai Xun thought it had detected pings, which Echo was sent to check out, and is 900KM SW of where Ocean Shield was searching.
According to the topography maps on the following page:
... the ocean depth there is broadly in the 4,000 to 5,000 metre range so is eminently searchable if not too mountainous.
As for the autopilot thing, the ex-aircraft accident investigator said that if the pilots were overcome through lack of oxygen for any reason and another crew member with access to an oxygen bottle tried to fly the plane, it would eventually have run out and they may have become unconscious whilst still trying to turn the plane in what may have been an incomplete manouevre, at the end of which the autopilot would fly on the last heading set at some optimum speed until it ran out of fuel. Apparently direction is dead easy to set but altitude and speed much harder for a non-pilot and they may be banking on that.
Fascinating programme and wouldn't it be interesting if it turned out to be where Hai Xun 01 thought it had heard pings - as that now seems more likely than where Ocean Shield thought it heard them! And... Hai Xun 01 is currently back at Fremantle!
100 days and still no plane this just doesnt add up
Everything known adds up perfectly.
When you post can you include some substance please instead of just posting slogans? Perhaps explain what it is you don't understand.
I wish we did not have to wait so long for the re start of the search, the link is very interesting.
That 36 degrees south, 88.57 east is twice as far SW of the Ocean Shield search area than last night's Horizon suggests, it's south of Albany (SW Australia tip) and nearly as far SW as where they first started searching (and nearly a third of the way to South Africa!)
I am highly sceptical that these 'independent experts' have any more skill or knowledge than the official investigators and Inmarsat, but all they are saying really is that it's further round on the 7th Inmarsat arc, which we know already. But at least they all now accept that the plane did fly south, and came down on the Inmarsat arc, so we have progress (but potentially an extra 12 months of searching).
That 36 degrees south, 88.57 east is twice as far SW of the Ocean Shield search area than last night's Horizon suggests, it's south of Albany (SW Australia tip) and nearly as far SW as where they first started searching (and nearly a third of the way to South Africa!)
I am highly sceptical that these 'independent experts' have any more skill or knowledge than the official investigators and Inmarsat, but all they are saying really is that it's further round on the 7th Inmarsat arc, which we know already.
Surely where Ocean Shield was or was not searching is irrelevant now, since the Pings heard have been discounted.
And since the current investigators have come up with squat, l don't see how anything can be discounted. Everyone has been working on theories, l don't see how one is better than another or one expert is better than another.
Surely where Ocean Shield was or was not searching is irrelevant now, since the Pings heard have been discounted.
And since the current investigators have come up with squat, l don't see how anything can be discounted. Everyone has been working on theories, l don't see how one is better than another or one expert is better than another.
None of it's irrelevant as it could be anywhere on the 7th. arc (within reason). One of the estimates is likely to be right in the end and the most likely one is probably the latest from the official team, but it could be anywhere on the arc as they are all using assumptions which could be wrong. Me or you could pick a spot on that arc and stand a fair chance of picking the right one, though the official team would stand a better chance..
There's potentially 2 or 3 years of searching to do, depending on where they start!
That 36 degrees south, 88.57 east is twice as far SW of the Ocean Shield search area than last night's Horizon suggests, it's south of Albany (SW Australia tip) and nearly as far SW as where they first started searching (and nearly a third of the way to South Africa!)
I am highly sceptical that these 'independent experts' have any more skill or knowledge than the official investigators and Inmarsat, but all they are saying really is that it's further round on the 7th Inmarsat arc, which we know already. But at least they all now accept that the plane did fly south, and came down on the Inmarsat arc, so we have progress (but potentially an extra 12 months of searching).
I see that the "independent experts" are the ones who kept insisting that the INMARSAT analysis was wrong despite the fact that it was pretty obvious to all and sundry that the calculations could only be made using the raw data which wasn't available to the public at that time. I know the group had requested the raw data, but had been told it was part of an ongoing investigation, so considering the fact that they knew they needed the raw data to draw any firm conclusions, the negative tone of some of their statements was somewhat surprising. These statements just fuelled the "cover-up" claims by the likes of Sara Bajc, so if I was one of the official investigators, I'd be rather tempted to politely suggest the "independent experts" go play somewhere else!
I see that the "independent experts" are the ones who kept insisting that the INMARSAT analysis was wrong despite the fact that it was pretty obvious to all and sundry that the calculations could only be made using the raw data which wasn't available to the public at that time. I know the group had requested the raw data, but had been told it was part of an ongoing investigation, so considering the fact that they knew they needed the raw data to draw any firm conclusions, the negative tone of some of their statements was somewhat surprising. These statements just fuelled the "cover-up" claims by the likes of Sara Bajc, so if I was one of the official investigators, I'd be rather tempted to politely suggest the "independent experts" go play somewhere else!
They only initially disagreed with Inmarsat, when they saw the rest of the data, they in part agreed, l would like to know who the "experts" are that government are relying on. The list of independent experts is attached http://www.duncansteel.com
I see that the "independent experts" are the ones who kept insisting that the INMARSAT analysis was wrong despite the fact that it was pretty obvious to all and sundry that the calculations could only be made using the raw data which wasn't available to the public at that time. I know the group had requested the raw data, but had been told it was part of an ongoing investigation, so considering the fact that they knew they needed the raw data to draw any firm conclusions, the negative tone of some of their statements was somewhat surprising. These statements just fuelled the "cover-up" claims by the likes of Sara Bajc, so if I was one of the official investigators, I'd be rather tempted to politely suggest the "independent experts" go play somewhere else!
Exactly... and this one takes the biscuit:
"It's my personal opinion that the official search team weighed too heavily" on the acoustic pings, he [Exner] said.
Spoken like a true pro... in the noble art of perfect hindsight! <rolleyes>
BiB. I agree. It was a really good summary without the sensational nonsense usually associated with the media.
Interesting that INMARSAT's hotspot seems to be based on the plane maintaining pretty much an optimum speed and altitude. I can't think of a single, logical reason why someone would choose to set the autopilot to head off into the Southern Indian Ocean, and if someone other than the pilot or copilot desperately twiddled a few knobs in the hope it would do something, who knows what speed or altitude they might have set.
Actually mention of the INMARSAT 'hotspot' was interesting. As yet the area concerned has still to be searched.
They only initially disagreed with Inmarsat, when they saw the rest of the data, they in part agreed, l would like to know who the "experts" are that government are relying on. The list of independent experts is attached http://www.duncansteel.com
My understanding is that INMARSAT, Rolls Royce, Boeing, the AAIB, BEA, and the NTSB (to name but a few) are all involved. Not a bad line-up of experts!
Interesting final couple of paragraphs ..
"The search area will be confirmed before the end of June, after completion of extensive collaborative analysis by a range of specialists.
It is already clear from the provisional results of that analysis that the search zone will move, but still be on the seventh arc (where the aircraft last communicated with satellite)."
With regard to the ships involved in the latest phase of the search, Zhu Kezhen isn't even listed on Marine Traffic, and the position of Fugro Equator hasn't been updated for a couple of weeks.
Hai Xun 01 which is being used as a support vessel has just moved out of Fremantle harbour (where she was presumably taking on stores) and looks to be anchoring up in Gage Roads (just outside Fremantle). She's due to head out to sea on the 25th.
The Sunday Times has an article suggesting that Captain Shah is now under suspicion mainly because his flight simulator contained landings on southern Indian Ocean landing strips.
Pilot fantasises about strange landing places shocker. I think it's likely complete bs designed to exonerate the Malaysian authorities from doing something they shouldn't have done.
Pilot fantasises about strange landing places shocker. I think it's likely complete bs designed to exonerate the Malaysian authorities from doing something they shouldn't have done.
We're making a lot of fuss about a plane but think of the number of boats and ships that have disappeared over millennia without a trace.
None more so than the MV Gaul sunk whilst fishing in the Barents Sea in 1974. At the time it was considered one of the most modern Trawlers UK had yet sunk with the loss of all it's 36 man crew.
The Trawler itself was eventually found 23 years later but mystery has continued to surround the Gaul and whether it was 'fishing' for something other than just fish. Trawlers were commonly used for espionage during the Cold War, though i saw a Trawler 'type' of vessel moored at Scrabster in the late 90's which was festooned with an array of various antenna. There was no evidence of any kind of fishing equipment to be seen anywhere on the deck.
Questions about if Gaul had been involved in intelligence gathering still remain unanswered to this day.
Comments
I found it very interesting and it told me (or reminded me of) a few things I may have missed previously.
First, the initial underwater pings that led to Ocean Shield being sent to the northern part of the search arc (level with Learmonth) were detected by HMS Echo. These were later re-checked and eliminated but not before Ocean Shield had started working its way south along the 7th arc... and ogf course it was soon stopped in its tracks by detecting its own set of four pings, which led to the lengthy but fruitless Bluefin 21 searching.
Second, I learned that it seems to have been the combined doppler effect on the plane's handshake signals of both the plane's movement *and* the satellite wobble around the equator, that allowed the northern arc to be eliminated.
Third, I learned exactly where the area of highest probability for MH370 is located. It's on the 7th handshake arc at about 28 degrees south according to tonight's programme and this can be seen on the following map (though it isn't marked):
http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/april/mr_012-1.jpg
...and it works out to be immediately above the '7' of the label 'Satellite Handshake Calculation #7'. This is 300 KM southwest of where Hai Xun thought it had detected pings, which Echo was sent to check out, and is 900KM SW of where Ocean Shield was searching.
According to the topography maps on the following page:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27870467
... the ocean depth there is broadly in the 4,000 to 5,000 metre range so is eminently searchable if not too mountainous.
As for the autopilot thing, the ex-aircraft accident investigator said that if the pilots were overcome through lack of oxygen for any reason and another crew member with access to an oxygen bottle tried to fly the plane, it would eventually have run out and they may have become unconscious whilst still trying to turn the plane in what may have been an incomplete manouevre, at the end of which the autopilot would fly on the last heading set at some optimum speed until it ran out of fuel. Apparently direction is dead easy to set but altitude and speed much harder for a non-pilot and they may be banking on that.
Fascinating programme and wouldn't it be interesting if it turned out to be where Hai Xun 01 thought it had heard pings - as that now seems more likely than where Ocean Shield thought it heard them! And... Hai Xun 01 is currently back at Fremantle!
Everything known adds up perfectly.
When you post can you include some substance please instead of just posting slogans? Perhaps explain what it is you don't understand.
Keio Line is a member on here. He had a 'source' that told him that the Queen was seriously ill and that it was going to be announced the day after.
I wish we did not have to wait so long for the re start of the search, the link is very interesting.
That 36 degrees south, 88.57 east is twice as far SW of the Ocean Shield search area than last night's Horizon suggests, it's south of Albany (SW Australia tip) and nearly as far SW as where they first started searching (and nearly a third of the way to South Africa!)
I am highly sceptical that these 'independent experts' have any more skill or knowledge than the official investigators and Inmarsat, but all they are saying really is that it's further round on the 7th Inmarsat arc, which we know already. But at least they all now accept that the plane did fly south, and came down on the Inmarsat arc, so we have progress (but potentially an extra 12 months of searching).
Surely where Ocean Shield was or was not searching is irrelevant now, since the Pings heard have been discounted.
And since the current investigators have come up with squat, l don't see how anything can be discounted. Everyone has been working on theories, l don't see how one is better than another or one expert is better than another.
None of it's irrelevant as it could be anywhere on the 7th. arc (within reason). One of the estimates is likely to be right in the end and the most likely one is probably the latest from the official team, but it could be anywhere on the arc as they are all using assumptions which could be wrong. Me or you could pick a spot on that arc and stand a fair chance of picking the right one, though the official team would stand a better chance..
There's potentially 2 or 3 years of searching to do, depending on where they start!
I see that the "independent experts" are the ones who kept insisting that the INMARSAT analysis was wrong despite the fact that it was pretty obvious to all and sundry that the calculations could only be made using the raw data which wasn't available to the public at that time. I know the group had requested the raw data, but had been told it was part of an ongoing investigation, so considering the fact that they knew they needed the raw data to draw any firm conclusions, the negative tone of some of their statements was somewhat surprising. These statements just fuelled the "cover-up" claims by the likes of Sara Bajc, so if I was one of the official investigators, I'd be rather tempted to politely suggest the "independent experts" go play somewhere else!
They only initially disagreed with Inmarsat, when they saw the rest of the data, they in part agreed, l would like to know who the "experts" are that government are relying on. The list of independent experts is attached http://www.duncansteel.com
Exactly... and this one takes the biscuit:
Spoken like a true pro... in the noble art of perfect hindsight! <rolleyes>
So we know she hasn't vanished or become one of 'the disappeared'!
The link is interesting, thank you.
I find it heartening that these 'independent experts' are prepared to admit they were wrong when they initially doubted the Inmarsat data.
I have no doubt that MH370 is somewhere along that 7th arc just as Inmarsat say.
What did I say about tempting fate
My understanding is that INMARSAT, Rolls Royce, Boeing, the AAIB, BEA, and the NTSB (to name but a few) are all involved. Not a bad line-up of experts!
I was thinking more along the lines of Amelia Earnheart!
http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/june/mr051.aspx
Interesting final couple of paragraphs ..
"The search area will be confirmed before the end of June, after completion of extensive collaborative analysis by a range of specialists.
It is already clear from the provisional results of that analysis that the search zone will move, but still be on the seventh arc (where the aircraft last communicated with satellite)."
With regard to the ships involved in the latest phase of the search, Zhu Kezhen isn't even listed on Marine Traffic, and the position of Fugro Equator hasn't been updated for a couple of weeks.
Hai Xun 01 which is being used as a support vessel has just moved out of Fremantle harbour (where she was presumably taking on stores) and looks to be anchoring up in Gage Roads (just outside Fremantle). She's due to head out to sea on the 25th.
No shit Sherlock. Bet the co-pilot is 2nd most likely culprit.
The landing on short runways is "proof" he planned something. If so why hasn't anyone spotted a plane on a short runway?
"If" he had planned to do so, something may have gone wrong resulting in the plane not making his intended destination.
Such as ... ?
The Trawler itself was eventually found 23 years later but mystery has continued to surround the Gaul and whether it was 'fishing' for something other than just fish. Trawlers were commonly used for espionage during the Cold War, though i saw a Trawler 'type' of vessel moored at Scrabster in the late 90's which was festooned with an array of various antenna. There was no evidence of any kind of fishing equipment to be seen anywhere on the deck.
Questions about if Gaul had been involved in intelligence gathering still remain unanswered to this day.