It might be out of the Conservatives' hands though.
I've argued for a little while now that I think the next Government will be a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition with unofficial confidence and supply from the SNP. It'll be a tightrope Government, where one disagreement could drag down the house of cards completely - especially if the Coalition pushes their luck with the SNP. But, if you're right about left wing voters, Labour may take the plunge and decide they can get a more workable Government if they call another election.
In order to do this they will have to overturn the Fixed Term Parliament bill; will they get enough votes to do this in the first place? I can't see the Conservatives or the SNP agreeing to that as they would see right through what Labour/the Coalition were trying to do. Presumably the other alternative will be a Vote of No Confidence but Labour wouldn't want to go into an election off the back of one of those.
If the projections are right then I think this is the only outcome really. The Lib Dem's may be forced to get over their 'no deal with the SNP' if its the only way a workable government can be formed. I think a lot of compromises are going to be made here. Labour, Lib Dems and SNP will all agree 'its in the best interests of the country to unite' and spin it that way.
All three would have to make sure it works otherwise they will be crucified at the polling boxes when the next election comes.
They did in 1974, and won a majority. If the polls suggest that Labour could win another election, I wouldn't mind betting that a vote of no confidence is called and instead of The Tories voting it down (as they would be aware of what Labour were trying to do), the left wing alliance join in with the Labour Party. But, would that be three quarters of the house?
But why would the Left Wing Alliance vote for a Vote of No Confidence when, presumably, the polls in this case would indicate Labour gaining? Presumably Labour's gains would be at their expense. In a case like this where Labour aims for a Vote of No Confidence I can see the left wing voting with the Conservatives to maintain the Government and trying to present Labour as betrayers of the people they're supposed to represent. The only time the left wing would vote with Labour in a Vote of No Confidence is if the Conservatives call it.
They did in 1974, and won a majority. If the polls suggest that Labour could win another election, I wouldn't mind betting that a vote of no confidence is called and instead of The Tories voting it down (as they would be aware of what Labour were trying to do), the left wing alliance join in with the Labour Party. But, would that be three quarters of the house?
1974 second election was called by Labour and not by a confidence motion.
But why would the Left Wing Alliance vote for a Vote of No Confidence when, presumably, the polls in this case would indicate Labour gaining? Presumably Labour's gains would be at their expense. In a case like this where Labour aims for a Vote of No Confidence I can see the left wing voting with the Conservatives to maintain the Government and trying to present Labour as betrayers of the people they're supposed to represent. The only time the left wing would vote with Labour in a Vote of No Confidence is if the Conservatives call it.
The Conservatives really shouldn't be losing support considering there is no real alternative up there. Choose Labour, get Labour. Choose SNP, get an unofficial coalition with Labour. Choose Liberal Democrats, get a coalition with Labour. UKIP aren't really fighting for anything up there so there has to be concerns as to why the Tory vote is dropping, seemingly wooed by the SNP.
YouGov showing the Tories with a one-point lead - be interesting to see if this continues into tomorrow night. A good polling day for the Tories, for sure - maybe they are one/two points ahead.
So YouGov are suggesting a Conservative boost too. Interesting it comes from UKIP... does it answer the question I posed earlier about voters acting on fear and swaying towards the main parties from the smaller ones?
So YouGov are suggesting a Conservative boost too. Interesting it comes from UKIP... does it answer the question I posed earlier about voters acting on fear and swaying towards the main parties from the smaller ones?
A long way to go as of yet, of course.
It's just margin of error stuff I suspect.
I'm surprised Labour's housing announcments haven't made an impact in the polls(well yet) tbf
It will all depend entirely on the markets. If they show signs of crashing then I can't see how the biggest party could justify causing potential chaos that could ruin them come the next polling day if they were to try and delay it for their own gain.
Suddenly this whole thing has turned into one giant mess. I guess we know why Cameron now looks on the brink of a breakdown. Maybe he knows and doesn't want to win.
Jumping a sinking ship sounds like the type of challenge Cameron would run away from.
Those Tories on Political Betting, are insane though - the kind of people who really make you think about the Conservative Party. There's something not quite right about them - their tendency to overreact to polls is hilarious.
Nonetheless, I wonder if we'll start to see a trend across all pollsters towards the Tories now? I have a (bad) feeling that they'll be the largest party in a hung parliament - only really, the LD parliamentary party, and federal executive committee can stop a full blown Tory/LD coalition now, IMHO. Especially as Clegg doesn't appear to be drawing the EU ref as a red line - if he's prepared to accept it, then that's one huge milestone out the way. That of course depends on Clegg keeping his seat, which is still a knife edge situation right now. If he goes, along with Alexander that's a huge loss for the Tories in regard to coalition hopes. Even if the Tories form a minority government, I suspect without LD support at the least it wouldn't be able to pass a Queen's Speech (in fact, maybe even with LD support, with SNP + Lab combination, it could still lose). Oh well, we've still got a long way to go. But even I'm starting to have a feeling that the Tories, with the SNP tactic have edged away, although I think it's a small lead.
If they do make managed to form a government, it'll be interesting to see how they make it out of a period that will include an EU ref (and how the Tories avoid tearing themselves a part over it), perhaps another Scottish ref (when Scots may well leave the union), and if they'll even meet their targets of cuts, given how they've not managed to do so in this term.
I'm surprised Labour's housing announcments haven't made an impact in the polls(well yet) tbf
True; we'll have to see if any momentum is maintained or if votes keep switching around.
So many promises have been made in regards to Housing I think any more announcements will just be met with 'what more'? Their key one is the rent promise.
I'm surprised Labour's housing announcments haven't made an impact in the polls(well yet) tbf
Tbh, I doubt any policy is going to make an impact at this GE. The public have such a lack of faith in politicians, and are cynical regarding promises that I don't think they believe halve of this commitments are worth the paper they are written on - especially in regards to fact that politicians are also telling the public that there's a deficit to be reduced and so on.
I wonder if the Ashcroft polls may have had some effect on the bookies. Odds have lengthened on UKIP wins in Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth and Rochester and Strood. They've shortened in Dagenham and Rainham but not enough to make a UKIP win look likely (yet), and in Thurrock which Ladbrokes had down as a UKIP favourite to win last week anyway.
Aside from that, the only other notable changes I can spot - also covered in the Ashcroft polls - are that Labour is now tipped to win Bristol West, and the Tories are more certain to hold Bristol North West.
If all the Ladbrokes favourites win, this makes C 280, L 263, LD 26, SNP 54, PC 3, UKIP 3, GRN 1, RES 1, Spkr 1 (no NI data available).
I really cant see the polls moving for either Labour or the Conservatives to make any difference. There is no way to check their accuracy. As the politicians say the only poll that counts is the one on May 7th.
I wonder if the Ashcroft polls may have had some effect on the bookies. Odds have lengthened on UKIP wins in Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth and Rochester and Strood. They've shortened in Dagenham and Rainham but not enough to make a UKIP win look likely (yet), and in Thurrock which Ladbrokes had down as a UKIP favourite to win last week anyway.
Aside from that, the only other notable changes I can spot - also covered in the Ashcroft polls - are that Labour is now tipped to win Bristol West, and the Tories are more certain to hold Bristol North West.
If all the Ladbrokes favourites win, this makes C 280, L 263, LD 26, SNP 54, PC 3, UKIP 3, GRN 1, RES 1, Spkr 1 (no NI data available).
These figures, or something close to these figures, seem to be bandied about more and more now. I wonder how close they will be to the real result.
One reason for the increase in con share is that April pay packets have started to land with the increase in tax thresholds giving all a tax cut and taking some vout of tax altogether
I wonder if the Ashcroft polls may have had some effect on the bookies. Odds have lengthened on UKIP wins in Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth and Rochester and Strood. They've shortened in Dagenham and Rainham but not enough to make a UKIP win look likely (yet), and in Thurrock which Ladbrokes had down as a UKIP favourite to win last week anyway.
Aside from that, the only other notable changes I can spot - also covered in the Ashcroft polls - are that Labour is now tipped to win Bristol West, and the Tories are more certain to hold Bristol North West.
If all the Ladbrokes favourites win, this makes C 280, L 263, LD 26, SNP 54, PC 3, UKIP 3, GRN 1, RES 1, Spkr 1 (no NI data available).
I hope I read this right but do UKip stand a chance in Dagenham, because from what I read and heard London is the only Place they have not done well, in fact its their worst area apart from scotland
One thing I will say is Labour re on 34 per cent on yougov, if they hold that per centage, that's I think 4 or 5 per cent better then they did in 2010 and this is taking into account the mauling they're getting in Scotland, so do be up 4 per cent they must be doing very well in England/Wales compared to 2010
For example, I'm sure the "Bedroom Tax" had a 55% (or more support) just prior to it being implemented. It won't have that kind of support now will it?
Comments
Not as much as they did in the 1990s where I did think the press had an impact in the 1992 and 1997 elections.
If the projections are right then I think this is the only outcome really. The Lib Dem's may be forced to get over their 'no deal with the SNP' if its the only way a workable government can be formed. I think a lot of compromises are going to be made here. Labour, Lib Dems and SNP will all agree 'its in the best interests of the country to unite' and spin it that way.
All three would have to make sure it works otherwise they will be crucified at the polling boxes when the next election comes.
But why would the Left Wing Alliance vote for a Vote of No Confidence when, presumably, the polls in this case would indicate Labour gaining? Presumably Labour's gains would be at their expense. In a case like this where Labour aims for a Vote of No Confidence I can see the left wing voting with the Conservatives to maintain the Government and trying to present Labour as betrayers of the people they're supposed to represent. The only time the left wing would vote with Labour in a Vote of No Confidence is if the Conservatives call it.
1974 second election was called by Labour and not by a confidence motion.
True. Good points well made!
SNP - 51% (+4)
LAB - 26% (-)
CON - 14% (-2)
LDEM - 5% (+1)
The Conservatives really shouldn't be losing support considering there is no real alternative up there. Choose Labour, get Labour. Choose SNP, get an unofficial coalition with Labour. Choose Liberal Democrats, get a coalition with Labour. UKIP aren't really fighting for anything up there so there has to be concerns as to why the Tory vote is dropping, seemingly wooed by the SNP.
CON - 35% (+2)
LAB - 34% (-)
UKIP - 12% (-2)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 5% (-)
Translated into seats, you'd have the SNP on 55, Labour on 3 and the Lib Dems on 1.
It's obvious to say but every extra seat or two Labour can hold onto north of the border could be crucial in the final reckoning.
That's an interesting development.
It's the first YouGov poll to show a Tory lead in almost a week - and only the second to show a Tory lead in their last 18 polls.
Also significant to see that their gain came directly from UKIP.
But again, it doesn't exceed the margin of error.
So YouGov are suggesting a Conservative boost too. Interesting it comes from UKIP... does it answer the question I posed earlier about voters acting on fear and swaying towards the main parties from the smaller ones?
A long way to go as of yet, of course.
It's just margin of error stuff I suspect.
I'm surprised Labour's housing announcments haven't made an impact in the polls(well yet) tbf
Someone from the Guardian tweeted the following.
"Phone polls, internet surveys, polling by fax - makes no difference in Scotland:*#SNP*is on course for a landslide of gargantuan proportions"
Jumping a sinking ship sounds like the type of challenge Cameron would run away from.
Nonetheless, I wonder if we'll start to see a trend across all pollsters towards the Tories now? I have a (bad) feeling that they'll be the largest party in a hung parliament - only really, the LD parliamentary party, and federal executive committee can stop a full blown Tory/LD coalition now, IMHO. Especially as Clegg doesn't appear to be drawing the EU ref as a red line - if he's prepared to accept it, then that's one huge milestone out the way. That of course depends on Clegg keeping his seat, which is still a knife edge situation right now. If he goes, along with Alexander that's a huge loss for the Tories in regard to coalition hopes. Even if the Tories form a minority government, I suspect without LD support at the least it wouldn't be able to pass a Queen's Speech (in fact, maybe even with LD support, with SNP + Lab combination, it could still lose). Oh well, we've still got a long way to go. But even I'm starting to have a feeling that the Tories, with the SNP tactic have edged away, although I think it's a small lead.
If they do make managed to form a government, it'll be interesting to see how they make it out of a period that will include an EU ref (and how the Tories avoid tearing themselves a part over it), perhaps another Scottish ref (when Scots may well leave the union), and if they'll even meet their targets of cuts, given how they've not managed to do so in this term.
True; we'll have to see if any momentum is maintained or if votes keep switching around.
So many promises have been made in regards to Housing I think any more announcements will just be met with 'what more'? Their key one is the rent promise.
Tbh, I doubt any policy is going to make an impact at this GE. The public have such a lack of faith in politicians, and are cynical regarding promises that I don't think they believe halve of this commitments are worth the paper they are written on - especially in regards to fact that politicians are also telling the public that there's a deficit to be reduced and so on.
Aside from that, the only other notable changes I can spot - also covered in the Ashcroft polls - are that Labour is now tipped to win Bristol West, and the Tories are more certain to hold Bristol North West.
If all the Ladbrokes favourites win, this makes C 280, L 263, LD 26, SNP 54, PC 3, UKIP 3, GRN 1, RES 1, Spkr 1 (no NI data available).
These figures, or something close to these figures, seem to be bandied about more and more now. I wonder how close they will be to the real result.
I hope I read this right but do UKip stand a chance in Dagenham, because from what I read and heard London is the only Place they have not done well, in fact its their worst area apart from scotland
It's not a tax.