I think these stats put Luke in real trouble tonight....
Luke typically picks up on the Sunday afternoon more than others but he seems a little late kicking in today.
Sam B is normally much higher so that might be an ominous sign.
Sam C is not stable, so he can be considered to have a margin or error.
Also Tamera normally ranks 3rd/4th from bottom with RC 4th/5th from bottom and they have been turned into black boxes by Niall from 1D endorsing them along with Nic, the numbers are miles out of their normal ranges.
So while I'm starting to think it'll get it tonight, I am aware that it could be completely arse over tit.
Haha, I don't think its the Scottish vote tbh, more that "he is only 16" etc etc.
Also last night he ended up adopting directioners due to being endorsed by one of them. Which as we can see lead to much ridiculousness.
That was a joke. I meant maybe the other Boys' fans moved to Team Nicky after Saturday.
I also noticed that unlike the last two weeks, Sam hasn't been retweeting messages from fans ad nauseam. Maybe my timing is suspect but usually he's flooding my Twitter feed by now.
That was a joke. I meant maybe the other Boys' fans moved to Team Nicky after Saturday.
I also noticed that unlike the last two weeks, Sam hasn't been retweeting messages from fans ad nauseam. Maybe my timing is suspect but usually he's flooding my Twitter feed by now.
Ah I thought you were speculating
I don't watch their twitters so haven't noticed Sam's quietness. Part of me is thinking it'll be Hannah vs Sam B / Sam C
She normally polls ~300k and it looks like she won't even get close to it today... So it could be that we are in for the biggest shock ever.
I don't think she is doing that well this weekend, drops don't look good.
genuine question
could there be an element of her not creating the same "buzz" because people are starting to see her performances as a bit predictable and samey , but would that affect her existing fan base when it comes to voting ?
Why do people not believe Sam B could be in the bottom two? Yes, she is a favourite, but weren't James and Ella this time last year? Anything can happen on these shows. Tamera ended up in the bottom two when she was the favourite to win.
I think Sam B is likely to have the biggest non social media following, so therefore even though she's low on this I think she'll still get through. Surely Chris Maloney wouldn't have had a big social media score, and he was topping every week. It would be a massive shock to see her in the bottom two at least!
could there be an element of her not creating the same "buzz" because people are starting to see her performances as a bit predictable and samey , but would that affect her existing fan base when it comes to voting ?
That could be the case, I don't know why she has dropped so heavily. But...
I think Sam B is likely to have the biggest non social media following, so therefore even though she's low on this I think she'll still get through. Surely Chris Maloney wouldn't have had a big social media score, and he was topping every week. It would be a massive shock to see her in the bottom two at least!
The issue however is the drop, a drop shows that an audiences investment has dropped. Which does not look healthy.
We had a drop a couple of weeks back, from 180,000 the previous week to 32,000. That drop was Tamera.
I'm currently gravitating towards it being correct this week. Of course I am not confident enough to say that it is definitely, 100% Hannah v Sam B but it's looking that way and this platform has been very reliable so far and has been very well tested. So, I'm leaning towards it being right.
That could be the case, I don't know why she has dropped so heavily. But...
The issue however is the drop, a drop shows that an audiences investment has dropped. Which does not look healthy.
We had a drop a couple of weeks back, from 180,000 the previous week to 32,000. That drop was Tamera.
I'm currently gravitating towards it being correct this week. Of course I am not confident enough to say that it is definitely, 100% Hannah v Sam B but it's looking that way and this platform has been very reliable so far and has been very well tested. So, I'm leaning towards it being right.
I would like to say sorry if I offended you with my post last time about not believing you, when you stated Melanie would have lasted longer than any of the three girls. You have proven to be correct with your predictions, you probably would have been right about Melanie.:)
Sam B will be safe if it's true she got 35% of the votes last week.....it would be nearly impossible to fall from that figure to around 10% in the space of seven days.
The 35% was from The Sun which is a known leaker of false info for Syco.
Last week Sam B had the most hype of any contestant this series. She had Michael "I saw you on the telly & just had to pop round to tell everyone how great you are" Bolton in her VT.
Gary Lineker tweeting everyone to vote for her.
Great VT, staging, comments etc.
So she would have received a great deal of one off votes who won't vote this week.
This could easily drop her by 10%, even before her performance.
The Sun headline could also deramp her further if people think she's so far ahead that she'll be safe & she received some bland, uninteresting comments this week, so nothing worth talking about.
If it is Sam B vs Hannah I suppose they'll save Hannah via deadlock (and I think she would survive deadlock because of smaller sympathy rebound + good performance) to get the controversial deadlock shock send off.
However, I'm thinking if it's Hannah vs Sam C. Sam C will definitely go. They don't want to risk him rebounding his way all the way to the finals. And his performance was largely forgotten by the controversial one afterwards.
OK... 4:30pm metrics, you may see why I have said what I said.
Luke picks up in the Sunday afternoon and has now kicked in and passed Sam C.
A very distinct gap has emerged between Hannah and everyone else.
Sam B has kicked in a load, Tamera did about 5-6 too though (Sam B went from 40-74k within the last hour btw). I'm concerned for her. But am aware that Sam C sits there too.
Hannah: 6,000
Sam B: 74,313
Sam C: 113,862
Luke: 121,491
Tamera: 4,927,601
Rough Copy: 8,322,290
Nicholas: 38,049,651
I'm going to try and split Nialls endorsement away in a bit,we are probably looking at the order being almost the same, Tamera has gotten more from it than RC although the scores are lower. So, the order would just switch Tamera and RC over by the looks of things.
If it is Sam B vs Hannah I suppose they'll save Hannah via deadlock (and I think she would survive deadlock because of smaller sympathy rebound + good performance) to get the controversial deadlock shock send off.
However, I'm thinking if it's Hannah vs Sam C. Sam C will definitely go. They don't want to risk him rebounding his way all the way to the finals. And his performance was largely forgotten by the controversial one afterwards.
More chance of seeing a rocking horse sh1t than them allowing sam bailey to go out over 3 times bottom 2 contestant and favourite to go out
More chance of seeing a rocking horse sh1t than them allowing sam bailey to go out over 3 times bottom 2 contestant and favourite to go out
yeah I was a bit surprised by that line of logic
the decision would come down to Louis and gary and couldn't see either of them saving Hannah over sam B to even take it to deadlock and even if one did I think Hannah would be toast if it ended up at deadlock anyway
I would like to say sorry if I offended you with my post last time about not believing you, when you stated Melanie would have lasted longer than any of the three girls. You have proven to be correct with your predictions, you probably would have been right about Melanie.:)
Neah don't worry about it. I have just noticed that she had the most traction and was really taken aback by how well it held, so I think she could come out as a surprise for some.
I might not be right tonight though, I'm not as confident in this week as I have been as there are a few unknowns going on.
On Sam B, she's really kicking in now (98k) so my mind may change before the results.
Poor Hannah though, it doesn't look like she has a rebound on social media.
the decision would come down to Louis and gary and couldn't see either of them saving Hannah over sam B to even take it to deadlock and even if one did I think Hannah would be toast if it ended up at deadlock anyway
It's the X Factor though. Louis Walsh is the TPTB puppet, so don't look at me as though I'm saying something incredulous about the almighty Sam Bailey when stranger things such as Carloynne going over Rylan and Lucie going over Jedward have happened, Katie (a FOUR times landing B2er) took out Aiden/Treyc, Misha (a THREE times landing B2er) took out an early favorite Janet.
As long as Louis Walsh is there, Sam B going controversially may happen (stranger things have happened). I personally don't see it happening but simply pointed out the possibility of it happening, it's a sing off for a reason anyway - to restore control to the producers hands. If you think the judges have any say in it then I think it's a bit foolish on your part to believe that.
I'm probably going to be ridiculed for this but whatever...to me anyway Sam B can be dull. She can't emote like Hannah can. So that may the line of logic they use.
It's the X Factor though. Louis Walsh is the TPTB puppet, so don't look at me as though I'm saying something incredulous about the almighty Sam Bailey when stranger things such as Carloynne going over Rylan and Lucie going over Jedward have happened, Katie (a FOUR times landing B2er) took out Aiden/Treyc, Misha (a THREE times landing B2er) took out an early favorite Janet.
As long as Louis Walsh is there, Sam B going controversially may happen (stranger things have happened). I personally don't see it happening but simply pointed out the possibility of it happening, it's a sing off for a reason anyway - to restore control to the producers hands. If you think the judges have any say in it then I think it's a bit foolish on your part to believe that.
I'm probably going to be ridiculed for this but whatever...to me anyway Sam B can be dull. She can't emote like Hannah can. So that may the line of logic they use.
Yes, that is a possibility. If she lands in the bottom, the producers may take this opportunity to get rid of her, if they do not want her to win the show for some reason.
Comments
Luke typically picks up on the Sunday afternoon more than others but he seems a little late kicking in today.
Sam B is normally much higher so that might be an ominous sign.
Sam C is not stable, so he can be considered to have a margin or error.
Also Tamera normally ranks 3rd/4th from bottom with RC 4th/5th from bottom and they have been turned into black boxes by Niall from 1D endorsing them along with Nic, the numbers are miles out of their normal ranges.
So while I'm starting to think it'll get it tonight, I am aware that it could be completely arse over tit.
The non-Scottish Boys' numbers seem to be very weak. Have their fans moved to Scotland?
Haha, I don't think its the Scottish vote tbh, more that "he is only 16" etc etc.
Also last night he ended up adopting directioners due to being endorsed by one of them. Which as we can see lead to much ridiculousness.
That was a joke. I meant maybe the other Boys' fans moved to Team Nicky after Saturday.
I also noticed that unlike the last two weeks, Sam hasn't been retweeting messages from fans ad nauseam. Maybe my timing is suspect but usually he's flooding my Twitter feed by now.
Ah I thought you were speculating
I don't watch their twitters so haven't noticed Sam's quietness. Part of me is thinking it'll be Hannah vs Sam B / Sam C
i don't want to lose my bet on hannah going tonight
I can't see Sam B being in the B2 at all - it'd be the biggest shock ever.
She normally polls ~300k and it looks like she won't even get close to it today... So it could be that we are in for the biggest shock ever.
I don't think she is doing that well this weekend, drops don't look good.
Even so I think her fanbase will get her through comfortably even if she isn't making that much of a splash this week. I just can't see her being B2.
Ok but I had a feeling this wasnt a good week for Sam B.
Which ever way you look at it she is below Sam C both this week and last.
genuine question
could there be an element of her not creating the same "buzz" because people are starting to see her performances as a bit predictable and samey , but would that affect her existing fan base when it comes to voting ?
That could be the case, I don't know why she has dropped so heavily. But...
The issue however is the drop, a drop shows that an audiences investment has dropped. Which does not look healthy.
We had a drop a couple of weeks back, from 180,000 the previous week to 32,000. That drop was Tamera.
I'm currently gravitating towards it being correct this week. Of course I am not confident enough to say that it is definitely, 100% Hannah v Sam B but it's looking that way and this platform has been very reliable so far and has been very well tested. So, I'm leaning towards it being right.
I would like to say sorry if I offended you with my post last time about not believing you, when you stated Melanie would have lasted longer than any of the three girls. You have proven to be correct with your predictions, you probably would have been right about Melanie.:)
The 35% was from The Sun which is a known leaker of false info for Syco.
Last week Sam B had the most hype of any contestant this series. She had Michael "I saw you on the telly & just had to pop round to tell everyone how great you are" Bolton in her VT.
Gary Lineker tweeting everyone to vote for her.
Great VT, staging, comments etc.
So she would have received a great deal of one off votes who won't vote this week.
This could easily drop her by 10%, even before her performance.
The Sun headline could also deramp her further if people think she's so far ahead that she'll be safe & she received some bland, uninteresting comments this week, so nothing worth talking about.
However, I'm thinking if it's Hannah vs Sam C. Sam C will definitely go. They don't want to risk him rebounding his way all the way to the finals. And his performance was largely forgotten by the controversial one afterwards.
Luke picks up in the Sunday afternoon and has now kicked in and passed Sam C.
A very distinct gap has emerged between Hannah and everyone else.
Sam B has kicked in a load, Tamera did about 5-6 too though (Sam B went from 40-74k within the last hour btw). I'm concerned for her. But am aware that Sam C sits there too.
Hannah: 6,000
Sam B: 74,313
Sam C: 113,862
Luke: 121,491
Tamera: 4,927,601
Rough Copy: 8,322,290
Nicholas: 38,049,651
I'm going to try and split Nialls endorsement away in a bit,we are probably looking at the order being almost the same, Tamera has gotten more from it than RC although the scores are lower. So, the order would just switch Tamera and RC over by the looks of things.
More chance of seeing a rocking horse sh1t than them allowing sam bailey to go out over 3 times bottom 2 contestant and favourite to go out
Yep, even if Sam B ends up in the bottom two, I cannot see her going anywhere.
yeah I was a bit surprised by that line of logic
the decision would come down to Louis and gary and couldn't see either of them saving Hannah over sam B to even take it to deadlock and even if one did I think Hannah would be toast if it ended up at deadlock anyway
Neah don't worry about it. I have just noticed that she had the most traction and was really taken aback by how well it held, so I think she could come out as a surprise for some.
I might not be right tonight though, I'm not as confident in this week as I have been as there are a few unknowns going on.
On Sam B, she's really kicking in now (98k) so my mind may change before the results.
Poor Hannah though, it doesn't look like she has a rebound on social media.
It's the X Factor though. Louis Walsh is the TPTB puppet, so don't look at me as though I'm saying something incredulous about the almighty Sam Bailey when stranger things such as Carloynne going over Rylan and Lucie going over Jedward have happened, Katie (a FOUR times landing B2er) took out Aiden/Treyc, Misha (a THREE times landing B2er) took out an early favorite Janet.
As long as Louis Walsh is there, Sam B going controversially may happen (stranger things have happened). I personally don't see it happening but simply pointed out the possibility of it happening, it's a sing off for a reason anyway - to restore control to the producers hands. If you think the judges have any say in it then I think it's a bit foolish on your part to believe that.
I'm probably going to be ridiculed for this but whatever...to me anyway Sam B can be dull. She can't emote like Hannah can. So that may the line of logic they use.
Yes, that is a possibility. If she lands in the bottom, the producers may take this opportunity to get rid of her, if they do not want her to win the show for some reason.