Labour win 2015 GE but Ed Miliband loses his seat?

heiker · 27/07/14 - 15:15

UKIP victory over Labour last night in Doncaster By-Election:

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/ukip-victory-in-doncaster-by-election-1-6749238

also a UKIP gain from Labour back in May 2014 in Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun:

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/live-full-doncaster-council-election-results-labour-hold-doncaster-but-lose-seats-1-6633655

Labour's share of the vote in Doncaster North (Miliband's Seat) in long term decline:

2001 Labour Vote Share down 6.7%

2005 Labour Vote Share down 7.6%

2010 Labour Vote Share down 8.8%

with the decline accelerating under Ed Miliband

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doncaster_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency

I am not going to claim that Ed Miliband will definitely lose Doncaster North but there is evidence that it is a possibility.

Biffo the Bear · 27/07/14 - 15:20

Well that seat was in Doncaster Central, so it doesn't really show anything.

In terms of Donnie North, the likelihood of Labour's majority being overturned will lie with a swing of something like 40% to the Conservatives, so if that happens, then he'll lose his seat.

Mesostim · 27/07/14 - 15:22

Labour win the election!!! We'd not hear the end of it for at least 5 years.

heiker · 27/07/14 - 15:26

Biffo the Bear wrote: »

Well that seat was in Doncaster Central, so it doesn't really show anything.

In terms of Donnie North, the likelihood of Labour's majority being overturned will lie with a swing of something like 40% to the Conservatives, so if that happens, then he'll lose his seat.

Labour's vote share is declining but I've not suggested that if Miliband does not hold onto the seat that the Tories will in any way benefit. A low Labour turnout could do for Miliband.

Biffo the Bear · 27/07/14 - 15:35

heiker wrote: »

Labour's vote share is declining but I've not suggested that if Miliband does not hold onto the seat that the Tories will in any way benefit. A low Labour turnout could do for Miliband.

If that were the case it would require around 50% of Labour voters (around 9,000 people) to not bother voting in a general election after 5 years of Coalition cuts, along with all other party supporters doing the opposite.

Discombobulate · 27/07/14 - 15:38

heiker wrote: »

Labour win 2015 GE but Ed Miliband loses his seat?:

Perhaps they could do what they did after Alex Douglas-Home was appointed PM in succession to MacMillian. Namely

1. Delay the recall of Parliament after the general election
2. Get some loyal backbencher with a healthy majority to stand down and force a by-election
3. Get Miliband to stand in the by-election
4. If he wins end of problem, but
5. If he loses Labour elect a new leader who then goes on to be PM

heiker · 27/07/14 - 15:45

Biffo the Bear wrote: »

If that were the case it would require around 50% of Labour voters (around 9,000 people) to not bother voting in a general election after 5 years of Coalition cuts, along with all other party supporters doing the opposite.

Most assume that a Labour victory in 2015 will include Miliband at the helm. I'm not so sure. In spite of the so called Coalition Cuts he's less popular than Cameron. Whilst I wouldn't bet on him losing neither would I bet on him winning his seat.

heiker · 27/07/14 - 15:47

Discombobulate wrote: »

Perhaps they could do what they did after Alex Douglas-Home was appointed PM in succession to MacMillian. Namely

1. Delay the recall of Parliament after the general election
2. Get some loyal backbencher with a healthy majority to stand down and force a by-election
3. Get Miliband to stand in the by-election4. If he wins end of problem, but
5. If he loses Labour elect a new leader who then goes on to be PM

One problem....electors sometimes don't care to be treated as vote fodder.

Discombobulate · 27/07/14 - 15:49

heiker wrote: »

One problem....electors sometimes don't care to be treated as vote fodder.

Agree, hence option 5.

gummy mummy · 27/07/14 - 16:20

heiker wrote: »

Most assume that a Labour victory in 2015 will include Miliband at the helm. I'm not so sure. In spite of the so called Coalition Cuts he's less popular than Cameron. Whilst I wouldn't bet on him losing neither would I bet on him winning his seat.

If there is any truth in the claims that Labour voters will vote for anyone or anything wearing a pink rosette you'd have to bet on him winning if he's in a safe Labour seat;-)

heiker · 27/07/14 - 16:37

gummy mummy wrote: »

If there is any truth in the claims that Labour voters will vote for anyone or anything wearing a pink rosette you'd have to bet on him winning if he's in a safe Labour seat;-)

I think that the saying goes "pin a red rosette on a pig" to bring out the Labour vote.

platelet · 27/07/14 - 16:39

heiker wrote: »

I think that the saying goes "pin a red rosette on a pig" to bring out the Labour vote.

Yeah but Ed insulted bacon

heiker · 27/07/14 - 16:47

platelet wrote: »

Yeah but Ed insulted bacon

....in front of Obama too

https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/20140722-081439-29679004.jpg

Tassium · 27/07/14 - 16:53

Clearly quite a few people in these forums have not been in the front line of austerity measures...

To suggest that Labour are going to lose votes in 2015 is ridiculous. The only question is what amount of gain, small/moderate/large

platelet · 27/07/14 - 17:07

Tassium wrote: »

Clearly quite a few people in these forums have not been in the front line of austerity measures...

One or two might remember how we got there though

Gordon Brown May 1997 wrote:

The British economy of the future must be built not on the shifting sands of boom and bust.

Gordon Brown April 1998 wrote:

Now it is true to say in Britain that the last forty years has been characterised by stop go, boom bust, instability in economic policy. And so I can tell you that the first objective of the new government has been the determination to ensure monetary and fiscal stability

Gordon Brown June 1999 wrote:

The way forward is for governments to consciously pursue monetary and fiscal stability through setting clear objectives, establishing proper rules, and requiring openness and transparency - the new rules of the game. Particularly important for a Britain which has been more subject than most economies to the instability of boom-bust cycles and constantly changing policies.

Gordon Brown April 2000 wrote:

And it was to avoid the historic British problem - the violence of the repeated boom and bust cycles of the past - that we established the new monetary framework based on consistent rules - the symmetrical inflation target; settled well understood procedures - Bank independence; and openness and transparency.

Gordon Brown June 2001 wrote:

Every time in recent decades when the British economy has started to grow, Governments of both parties have taken short-term decisions which too often have created unsustainable consumer booms, let the economy get out of control and sacrificed monetary and fiscal prudence. And everyone here will remember how quickly and easily boom turned to bust in the early nineties.

Gordon Brown March 2002 wrote:

With Bank of England independence, tough decisions on inflation, new fiscal rules, and hard public spending controls, we today in our country have economic stability not boom and bust

Gordon Brown November 2003 wrote:

Remember the old days, what was called the British problem: stop go, boom bust, unstable cycles...
So I want to explain to you today the policy we - and the Bank of England - will continue to pursue to ensure the British economy entrenches our new won and hard won stability and continues to grow

Gordon Brown April 2004 wrote:

It is important we understand how and why it is Britain – once the most stop go of economies - which has avoided the recessions that hit America, Germany, Japan, Italy and most other industrial economies during the world downturn of the last few years and has enjoyed sustained and sustainable growth.
So let me just explain the long term difficult decisions that had to be made and what I know we must also do to entrench that stability for the future.

Gordon Brown September 2005 wrote:

Just as we need stability in inflation and interest rates, we need stability in our industry policy, stability in industrial relations, and stability in our trading relationships with the rest of the world, and we build this stability for a purpose: for it is the one sure route to full employment for our generation and to prosperity for all.

Gordon Brown May 2007 wrote:

Exactly 10 years ago when I first spoke to you as Chancellor, the country had spent a whole era wrestling with inflation and volatility and quite frankly the havoc stop go visited on long term investment.

Thinking back to my words to you then, I set out my pledge to make stability the central pillar of my economic and business policy.
I was convinced that having the strength to take the long term decisions to ensure Britain's competitiveness meant developing a shared national purpose that economic stability came first.

Liam Byrne May 2010 wrote:

[highlight]Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left
[/highlight]

Tassium · 27/07/14 - 17:09

platelet wrote: »

One or two might remember how we got there though

Yes, the world-wide recession.

paul2307 · 27/07/14 - 17:15

Mesostim wrote: »

Labour win the election!!! We'd not hear the end of it for at least 5 years.

A Labour government under the clowns they have wouldn't last 5 years before it destroyed the country

gummy mummy · 27/07/14 - 17:32

heiker wrote: »

I think that the saying goes "pin a red rosette on a pig" to bring out the Labour vote.

Pink/red whatever if the saying is true why would anyone bet against him winning ?

Landis · 27/07/14 - 17:37

Tassium wrote: »

Yes, the world-wide recession.

Clearly.....platelet is saying: It's 2010. Never mind about Lehman Brothers. Never mind about the California Sub-Prime crisis. Never mind about root causes. The important question (often posed by Osborne and other Tories) is Who is Driving the Car Right Now?

And it is a good question. And a good phrase.
Let's not waste a memorable phrase during the 2015 GE.

platelet · 27/07/14 - 17:37

Tassium wrote: »

Yes, the world-wide recession.

But that wasn't going to be a problem for us, because Gordon was planning for that during the boom times, making sure that we'd be ready the next time

but he didn't and they weren't

Boom, Bust, austerity

Pencil · 27/07/14 - 17:38

It will be a sad day for Britain if Labour, the Tories or the Liberal Democrats win the election.

heiker · 27/07/14 - 17:41

Tassium wrote: »

Clearly quite a few people in these forums have not been in the front line of austerity measures...

To suggest that Labour are going to lose votes in 2015 is ridiculous. The only question is what amount of gain, small/moderate/large

Labour's Share of the Popular Vote:

1997 - 43.2%
2001 - 40.7%
2005 - 35.2%
2010 - 29.0%

paul2307 · 27/07/14 - 17:43

Pencil wrote: »

It will be a sad day for Britain if Labour, the Tories or the Liberal Democrats win the election.

The best the public can hope for is a government that causes the least damage

paulschapman · 27/07/14 - 19:18

Mesostim wrote: »

Labour win the election!!! We'd not hear the end of it for at least 5 years.

You will be paying for it for a good deal longer.

[Deleted User] · 28/07/14 - 18:12

heiker wrote: »

Most assume that a Labour victory in 2015 will include Miliband at the helm. I'm not so sure. In spite of the so called Coalition Cuts he's less popular than Cameron. Whilst I wouldn't bet on him losing neither would I bet on him winning his seat.

Make up your mind then, you don't no if your coming or going so I'm having an `Each Way` bet on your prediction or would it be to risky?
>:(

Jol44 · 28/07/14 - 18:24

I hate to break it to the OP but there's far more chance of Miliband being the next PM than him losing his seat.

Hey there!

Quick Links

Labour win 2015 GE but Ed Miliband loses his seat?

Comments