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Current Betting Odds
Stefano92
Posts: 66,394 Forum Member
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The newbies basically have strengthened the originals popularity, however I do think Sam Kay is someone to look out for as if she befriends the originals, she could make it to the finals. I wouldn't even put it past Harry Amelia doing well. Marc will most likely be ejected by next week.
Betfair:
Nick- 4.8
Jack- 6.0
Danny- 7.2
Cristian- 8.0
Chloe- 9.4
Jade- 15
Joel- 15
Simon- 18
Sam Kay- 21
Eileen- 22
Marc- 36
Harry Amelia- 40
One of the closest Top 5 I have ever seen.
Betfair:
Nick- 4.8
Jack- 6.0
Danny- 7.2
Cristian- 8.0
Chloe- 9.4
Jade- 15
Joel- 15
Simon- 18
Sam Kay- 21
Eileen- 22
Marc- 36
Harry Amelia- 40
One of the closest Top 5 I have ever seen.
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Can still get Cristian at 12 elsewhere, worth a punt, always lay him off at a later stage on Betfair.
Jack being second *vomit*
So if that is true, I am assuming that The Twins and Harriet were by far the most voted to evict with Sarah, Kieran and Danny really close to one another.
So that may be the case for Chloe's odds to shorten whereas Danny has stayed the same.
Oh bugger!
I would have voted him out had I known.
With the lines closed so early and BB having kicked out 4 before in no particular order,(Steve/JJ) is it possible that Sarah got more votes than Kieran, Harriet and Twins were obviously top but also showed more shock to keep Sarah till last?
Although polls would suggest she was safer than Kieran.
Also if the rumour was true that they saved Danny before Chloe and kept Sarah and Chloe till last for more effect.
Under "so if that is true", how can the percentages cause Chloe's odds to shorten when the percentages have not been released?
If the betting can so easily be changed by most likely false rumours, then it's worthless as a guide.
People say that 'insiders' work for some bookies. I don't know if I believe that though.
But don't the bookies set the odds based on the bets they receive? For Chloe's odds to shorten, people have to be betting that she'll win. If that's based on inside info, then the betting market is a scam. The ones with inside knowledge clean up, and everyone else is played for a fool.
That's what I heard back in the BB7 days that betting market is dodgy.
There have been some suspicious cases recently when people who'd placed bets at long odds cleaned up (such as Helen's win, Frenchie's eviction) but it looked more like something they might have caused themselves, by voting, rather than the effects of inside knowledge.
But it wouldn't surprise me if the vote percentages leaked out. There must be a fair number of people who know them.
I would have expected newbie entrants to strengthen the originals odds. A few things do surprise me though. Although I'm not a fan of Eileen, I'm surprised that she is way lower than the rest. Can't believe that irritating Showbiz is that high. I would have placed the two newbie girls higher than the two boys.
I think those two new girls could be quite nice.
I do hope that the contestants can nominate the newbies as well this week because I really don't like that Showbiz idiot and that sundried tomato Irish idiot.
Possibly, but I remember last year, the start of the live show of Matthews eviction:
Ash- 1/10
Matthew- 4/1
5 mins before the phonelines closed:
Ash- 1/2
Matthew- evens
So that kind of change in odds in the space of half an hour was suspicious that Ash went from around 90% to be evicted, to almost the same 55/45. And I don't recall Matthew doing anything bad on that live show. Insider knowledge? No idea
Are you thinking the bookies had inside knowledge and so changed the odds? Or that some punters had inside knowledge and so bet on Matthew to go, so that the bookies changed the odds in response? (It might even be both, I suppose.)
Anyway, though I think the change was suspicious, I remember thinking during that show that Ash might well be safe. I can't remember any more everything that made me think that, but pat of it was that nothing we saw of Ash would have reminded people of why they'd disliked him earlier in the week. So perhaps the show made people think a bet on Matthew to go might be worthwhile.
Those are early odds based very much upon first impressions backed up with past knowledge of how certain types of contestant are both perceived and treated by other HMs and the public, and can be explained thus:-
Eileen faced eviction in both sets of HM nominations until BB flipped it so is quite likely to continue to face nomination, and will get caught sooner or later.
Showbiz has been allowed back into the house a second time so there is some suspicion BB will pull any number of strings to keep him there a decent while.
Harry works in an 'unfavoured' (by viewers/voters) industry and will immediately be written off as a slag/slapper and thus not expected to survive long. Nobody gives model types much benefit of the doubt on first viewing, I seem to remember Jade's odds were pretty long on first night too.
A 'lad' however much of an argumentative tosspot he is on the first night, is always less harshly viewed by the oestrogen-heavy audience (at least initially) who tend to reserve their ire for 'glamma' types like Harry, so the expectation (as of now!) is that Mark/Marc/Bell-End (what is his name?) would last longer than Harry.
Similarly, no one expects BB to lift much of a finger to save Sam whereas there's a good chance they won't want to see Showbiz go straight back out again anytime soon. Therefore her odds of winning are longer (worse) than Simon's but much better than Marc because he's instantly demonstrated that he's a major tool!
This afternoon the traditional bookmakers mostly have Simon, Marc and Harry fairly evenly matched (Paddy Power even has Harry at shorter odds than both, 20s against 25s), whilst Sam is now comfortably shorter than the other three in all bar the peer markets.
I would expect the two new boys to drift as they continue to irritate whilst the two new girls both girls odds shorten as we get to know them more as they settle into the house
Jack- 6.2
Nick- 6.6
Danny- 7.4
Chloe- 8.6
Cristian- 12
Marc- 13.5
Joel- 16.5
Simon- 22
Eileen- 23
Sam- 23
Harry Amelia- 24
Jade- 28
Marc is slaying, who would have thought? Jade now least favourite below all the newbies!
Yes, Betfair.
http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/big-brother/winner
The top ones are really quite close aren't they, it really is anybodies game at the moment.
I think we could see a whole different side of Jack once his immunity passes are gone (hopefully this week) and once he gets put up for nomination the strops will be in full flow, that beetroot head will be fit to blow.
Hopefully then his too small BB crown will slip from his head
his popularity has grossly been over estimated.
he will make the final, but hes first out fodder.