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UKIP likely to win 16 seats in May as Green Surge comes to an end

BoyardBoyard Posts: 5,393
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http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-course-16-seats-mays-5047512

UKIP have seen a huge surge in the polls, following Nigel Farage's bold statesmen-like response to the Charlie Hedbo tragedy. They're now on track to win 16 seats come May, including Farage's would-be seat in South Thanet.

31% Conservative
30% Labour
23% UKIP
7% Lib Dem
3% Green

The 'green surge' is officially over as voters wake up to the real danger of a party who would make it legal to join ISIS and remove all border controls while simultaneously dismantling our military. The far left party are polling at an embarrassing 3%

The two old establishment parties are currently neck and neck, while the Lib Dems continue to sink in to irrelevance.
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    PrestonAlPrestonAl Posts: 10,342
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    you do realise there is a thread on polls? Secondly, the greens have polled 4% already this month and ukip hit that amount less than 3 months ago. It's a one off poll that will undoubtedly be seen as an outlier.

    I look forward to your next thread tonight when UKIP sink to 14% and the greens hit the lofty highs of 8%
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    Net NutNet Nut Posts: 10,286
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    That's what the green leaders get for trying to ban something popular like page 3 :D
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    BanglaRoadBanglaRoad Posts: 57,590
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    Aw bless! The Kipper has got over excited over one poll.
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    MattNMattN Posts: 2,534
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    3 polls so far today:
    Populus, C34, L35, LD9, UKIP13, GRN6
    Ashcroft, C32, L32, LD6, UKIP15, GRN9
    Survation, C31, L30, LD7, UKIP23, GRN3

    Spot the odd one out
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    Alan1981Alan1981 Posts: 5,416
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    Bad news for the far left. I wonder if they'll have their uaf goons outside polling stations "encouraging" people to vote the right way.
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    David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    Someone needs to tell Nige. He's forecasting 3-4 seats. Expectation management, no doubt.
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    swingalegswingaleg Posts: 103,116
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    David Tee wrote: »
    Someone needs to tell Nige. He's forecasting 3-4 seats. Expectation management, no doubt.

    There is a big danger there though......he might convince people that UKIP is a wasted vote if they stand no chance in 640-odd constituencies

    Surely he should be leading people to believe that UKIP have a chance in every constituency
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    David TeeDavid Tee Posts: 22,833
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    swingaleg wrote: »
    There is a big danger there though......he might convince people that UKIP is a wasted vote if they stand no chance in 640-odd constituencies

    Surely he should be leading people to believe that UKIP have a chance in every constituency

    And be out on his arse when it doesn't happen? Much too savvy for that....
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    PrestonAlPrestonAl Posts: 10,342
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    Alan1981 wrote: »
    Bad news for the far left. I wonder if they'll have their uaf goons outside polling stations "encouraging" people to vote the right way.

    why it's 1 random poll, by a pollster that continually gives UKIP a hefty amount.
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    BanglaRoadBanglaRoad Posts: 57,590
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    David Tee wrote: »
    And be out on his arse when it doesn't happen? Much too savvy for that....

    Oh his arse will be out the door pronto if he does not win Thanet. As Andrew Neill often says "His jacket's on a shoogely peg"
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    Jol44Jol44 Posts: 21,048
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    I don't think UKIP are going to do as well as recent expectations to be honest.
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    jenziejenzie Posts: 20,821
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    What Green Party Surge???
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    dodradedodrade Posts: 23,852
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    David Tee wrote: »
    Someone needs to tell Nige. He's forecasting 3-4 seats. Expectation management, no doubt.

    He actually said more than three or four, so a minimum of five.
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    BoyardBoyard Posts: 5,393
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    MattN wrote: »
    3 polls so far today:
    Populus, C34, L35, LD9, UKIP13, GRN6
    Ashcroft, C32, L32, LD6, UKIP15, GRN9
    Survation, C31, L30, LD7, UKIP23, GRN3

    Spot the odd one out

    Please stay on topic. The thread isn't about those other polls.
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    AnnsyreAnnsyre Posts: 109,504
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    Boyard wrote: »
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-course-16-seats-mays-5047512

    UKIP have seen a huge surge in the polls, following Nigel Farage's bold statesmen-like response to the Charlie Hedbo tragedy. They're now on track to win 16 seats come May, including Farage's would-be seat in South Thanet.

    31% Conservative
    30% Labour
    23% UKIP
    7% Lib Dem
    3% Green

    The 'green surge' is officially over as voters wake up to the real danger of a party who would make it legal to join ISIS and remove all border controls while simultaneously dismantling our military. The far left party are polling at an embarrassing 3%

    The two old establishment parties are currently neck and neck, while the Lib Dems continue to sink in to irrelevance.

    Nothing is "over" for heaven's sake!

    The polls will be fluctuating all the way to the General Election.

    You cannot take one poll which is a snapshot of a moment in time and make extravagant unsupported claims.
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    Doctor_WibbleDoctor_Wibble Posts: 26,580
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    Annsyre wrote: »
    You cannot take one poll which is a snapshot of a moment in time and make extravagant unsupported claims.
    Absolutely, they are all very misleading - by the time of the election the main parties will have p'd off so many people and lost their votes and we will be looking at a UKIP/Green coalition.
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    northantsgirlnorthantsgirl Posts: 4,663
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    As this is the first of a series of polls by Survation for the Mirror you don't know whether it will be one of those polls that uses a methodology that will always place the Greens on a low percentage. If there had been a Survation Mirror poll last month that placed the Greens on say 6% and they were now on 3% then the surge could be said to be over, but there was no such poll last month.
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    glasshalffullglasshalffull Posts: 22,291
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    "A week is a long time in politics"

    "Events, dear boy, events"

    Two quotations by late Prime Ministers I will even give the Farage the benefit of the doubt in both knowing and understanding.
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    jjwalesjjwales Posts: 48,572
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    Alan1981 wrote: »
    Bad news for the far left. I wonder if they'll have their uaf goons outside polling stations "encouraging" people to vote the right way.

    Not sure why the "far left" or UAF would be involved.
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    MattXfactorMattXfactor Posts: 3,223
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    UKIP certainly wont win 16 seats, no way they poll 23%
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    MattXfactorMattXfactor Posts: 3,223
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    As this is the first of a series of polls by Survation for the Mirror you don't know whether it will be one of those polls that uses a methodology that will always place the Greens on a low percentage. If there had been a Survation Mirror poll last month that placed the Greens on say 6% and they were now on 3% then the surge could be said to be over, but there was no such poll last month.

    I'd definitely treat it as a rogue poll. UKIP will certainly not poll 23%, in my own opinion they'd be lucky to get 15% in May, I see them finishing up with around 11-12%.
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    iwearoddsocksiwearoddsocks Posts: 3,030
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    Alan1981 wrote: »
    Bad news for the far left. I wonder if they'll have their uaf goons outside polling stations "encouraging" people to vote the right way.

    Yes, that intimidating presence of academics, students and beardy trade unionists. I know you lot like to paint a picture akin to the Pre-WW2 Europe but no-one buys into your hyperbolic nonsense. :(
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    Boyard wrote: »
    They're now on track to win 16 seats come May, including Farage's would-be seat in South Thanet..

    Name the other 15 seats which you think UKIP are "on track" to win.
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    MattXfactorMattXfactor Posts: 3,223
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    Name the other 15 seats which you think UKIP are "on track" to win.

    UKIP will win 2 IMO, Farage & Carswell will be their only MP's (and even Farage may struggle).
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    nathanbrazilnathanbrazil Posts: 8,863
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    Boyard wrote: »
    ..... while the Lib Dems continue to sink in to irrelevance.

    Hurrah. Something to look forward to! Especially if we get a Portillo moment, and Clegg looses his seat. ;-)
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