Oil will run out in 44 years

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  • MajlisMajlis Posts: 31,362
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    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    Would a majority Tory Government have increased its budget? No.

    If you say so - they actually fought an election last year saying they would though :D


    Would a Labour Government have done so? No.

    Well thats up to Labour

    Its the pure madness. As long as you maintain foreign aid at that level you leave yourself wide open to accusation that domestic cuts are are ideological and not actually based on necessity.

    Surely it is simply a matter of priorities? - yes we have problems with the level of Public Spending in the UK but we also have a duty to help those less fortunate. I know that the concept of 'duty' is a bit old fashioned but you get the gist.
  • MajlisMajlis Posts: 31,362
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    Invest in nice new clean technologies such as carbon capture, unfortunately the bloody government has just cancelled the main plan for a cc power station meaning it'll probably be years before we get one built

    But CC doesn't actually work yet at an affordable price does it?

    And it certainly wasn't an option in the 80's.

    So we come back to the environmental problems of burning coal - and the fact remains that if you want a return to mass coal fired power generation you have to ignore the effects on the environment.
  • AiramAiram Posts: 6,764
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    It's going to cost us no matter which alternative source of energy we choose.

    Trying to penny pinch and throw a tiny amount at all of them, means none develop fast enough and international competitors get the march on us and produce it more cheaply than we can.

    There was a working wind power turbine in the 19th century in Scotland and yet the bulk of the equipment we currently use has to be imported.

    We quite simply don't have the industry left to produce things here. Pandering to tourists and shuffling money around are no substitute for what we lost during the Thatcher era.

    Thankfully we seem to be putting more effort into designing tidal machines.
  • frankie_babyfrankie_baby Posts: 1,100
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    Majlis wrote: »
    But CC doesn't actually work yet at an affordable price does it?

    And it certainly wasn't an option in the 80's.

    So we come back to the environmental problems of burning coal - and the fact remains that if you want a return to mass coal fired power generation you have to ignore the effects on the environment.

    NO it doesn't work yet at an affordable level and it never will unless we get the ball rolling now, but if we put our focus and resources into it and mass build the things yes it will be affordable

    And no it wasn't an option in the 80s but It's such a bloody obvious idea that I'd be shocked if scientists hadn't at least had theoretical ideas about it and if we'd invested in it then using all our lovely oil money (instead of funding huge dole queues) we'd be a world leader by now
  • frankie_babyfrankie_baby Posts: 1,100
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    Airam wrote: »
    It's going to cost us no matter which alternative source of energy we choose.

    Trying to penny pinch and throw a tiny amount at all of them, means none develop fast enough and international competitors get the march on us and produce it more cheaply than we can.

    There was a working wind power turbine in the 19th century in Scotland and yet the bulk of the equipment we currently use has to be imported.

    We quite simply don't have the industry left to produce things here. Pandering to tourists and shuffling money around are no substitute for what we lost during the Thatcher era.

    Thankfully we seem to be putting more effort into designing tidal machines.

    Oh and talking about tidal, why won't the bloody government (both this one and the last) just build a tidal barrage on the severn, yes huge initial cost but it alone could generate 5% of all our electrical needs
  • njpnjp Posts: 27,583
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    Aneechik wrote: »
    This is an interesting recent story about algae bio fuel which is currently in development in Spain.

    The field covers 50km², uses waste CO2 from local factories and can potentially produce 1.25m barrels of bio oil a day at full capacity.

    Another thing that bio oil has is a political advantage. All the algae method needs is plenty of light and plenty of space...
    Well, not quite. It also needs plenty of phosphorus.

    Welcome to the world of peak phosphorus!
    What a load of rubbish! Oil is self renewing.
    Well, yes. Provided you are prepared to wait a bit.
    Minor point but people were saying 20 years ago that oil would run out in 50 years.
    Were they? I keep seeing people make this claim, often with different start and end dates, but they never seem to give any references.

    As far as I know, nobody ever claimed that oil would just run out, because as you rightly say:
    Current oil reserves may indeed run out but as a resource gets more scarce, then so does the cost it attracts. This in turn makes reserves that are currently seen as uneconomic viable.

    On the other hand, what M King Hubbert noted, way back in 1956, was that oil production at any given location always followed a bell curve, and his projection was that global production would hit a peak sometime around the year 2000. That may not be far off the mark, and some people claim we've already passed peak oil. The curve has a long tail.
  • Phil 2804Phil 2804 Posts: 21,846
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    Majlis wrote: »
    If you say so - they actually fought an election last year saying they would though :D





    Well thats up to Labour



    Surely it is simply a matter of priorities? - yes we have problems with the level of Public Spending in the UK but we also have a duty to help those less fortunate. I know that the concept of 'duty' is a bit old fashioned but you get the gist.



    Yet in another thread you argue the poor should move out of London and stop whining. That you cannot see the pure hypocrisy of that is beyond me?

    £8.4 billion a year could go a long way to sorting our national housing crisis rather than having arrogant Tories telling those less fortunate than them to "live in the real world".

    Like I've said elsewhere glad I'm not a Tory, Glad I never will be.
  • gulliverfoylegulliverfoyle Posts: 6,318
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    usual green mis information/exaggeration/outright lies

    when will they learn that the more you keep doom mongering the less people listen??

    if you stopped using such pejorative words people would listen more!! eg disaster catastrophy irreversable

    and the politicians screwed the tax payer with more green taxes so they get even more pi$$ed off

    so eventually the core message is lost

    now-- are the fossil fuels finite? of course

    will it "run out" in 44 years? no of course not i'd say Oils got about 100yrs and coal and gas 200yrs

    high prices will make difficult sources viable

    do we need to transfer to a sustainable energy source? yes of course

    we need to build new nuclear power stations starting today eg now to avoid a energy gap in 10 years time

    we already import 5% of our power from 80% nuclear france

    we also need to transfer from our petrol cars to small turbo diesel engined cars with advanced KERS systems going from a avg 30mpg to 200mpg
  • MajlisMajlis Posts: 31,362
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    Phil 2804 wrote: »
    Yet in another thread you argue the poor should move out of London and stop whining. That you cannot see the pure hypocrisy of that is beyond me?

    Eh? - suggesting that somebody move to cheaper area is hypocritical when compared to somebody who is starving to death? :eek:

    Are you for real?
    Like I've said elsewhere glad I'm not a Tory, Glad I never will be.

    TBH with your views so am I
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    i'd say Oils got about 100yrs and coal and gas 200yrs

    At what point do you think oil production will have peaked, after which it's in terminal decline ?
  • gulliverfoylegulliverfoyle Posts: 6,318
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    At what point do you think oil production will have peaked, after which it's in terminal decline ?

    depend what you mean by "terminal decline"
    it implies that it will suddenly stop. it wont it will tail off
    depending on future discoveries we will change to other sources as they develop and become more economic
    since we dont know how much we had to start with how can you say its peaked?this is why the 44 years is cobblers
    thats the nature of oil discovery
    this is why the greens showed themselves up in the 70s by reading oil company statistics and as they normally only looked 10-20 years ahead they sid the oil would "run out" by the turn of the century. i remember the energy crisis of the 70s and were still using our cars
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,570
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    regardless of whether we have actual figures for the amount of oil left, the availability of oil is fuelling over consumption of pretty much everything else, surely it would be a better idea to try and curb it sooner rather than later, when the shit could truly hit the fan?
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    depend what you mean by "terminal decline"

    Something like this

    1970 - 60 units per annum of production
    2005 - 100 units per annum of production
    2010 - 120 units per annum of production
    2011 - 121 units per annum of production
    2012 - 121 units per annum of production - the peak
    2013 - 120 units per annum of production
    2018 - 110 units per annum of production
    2020 - 90 units per annum of production
    2025 - 60 units per annum of production
    2040 - 30 units per annum of production
    2050 - 5 units per annum of production
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,505
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    Huzzah!
  • Zippy289Zippy289 Posts: 1,020
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    depend what you mean by "terminal decline"
    it implies that it will suddenly stop. it wont it will tail off
    depending on future discoveries we will change to other sources as they develop and become more economic
    since we dont know how much we had to start with how can you say its peaked?this is why the 44 years is cobblers
    thats the nature of oil discovery
    this is why the greens showed themselves up in the 70s by reading oil company statistics and as they normally only looked 10-20 years ahead they sid the oil would "run out" by the turn of the century. i remember the energy crisis of the 70s and were still using our cars

    Yes, we're still using our cars, but the price of petrol has shot up since then. The average price (according to the AA) was 34.25p per gallon in 1971; it's over £6 now.
  • njpnjp Posts: 27,583
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    Zippy289 wrote: »
    Yes, we're still using our cars, but the price of petrol has shot up since then. The average price (according to the AA) was 34.25p per gallon in 1971; it's over £6 now.
    Yes, but based on the increase in average earnings, that 1971 price was equivalent to £6.42 at 2009 prices...
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    njp wrote: »
    Yes, but based on the increase in average earnings, that 1971 price was equivalent to £6.42 at 2009 prices...

    The overall cost of buying and running a car must have come down in price in relation to earnings over the last 50 years. How else could you explain the rise in car use in the UK ?
  • gulliverfoylegulliverfoyle Posts: 6,318
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    Something like this

    1970 - 60 units per annum of production
    2005 - 100 units per annum of production
    2010 - 120 units per annum of production
    2011 - 121 units per annum of production
    2012 - 121 units per annum of production - the peak
    2013 - 120 units per annum of production
    2018 - 110 units per annum of production
    2020 - 90 units per annum of production
    2025 - 60 units per annum of production
    2040 - 30 units per annum of production
    2050 - 5 units per annum of production

    source?

    you do know they have caps and quotas?

    this is my point projections are just that projections

    no one knows what will be found or new techniques

    theyve been saying this since the 70s

    i'm not saying that all the "easy" oils been found and production may have peaked

    and as oil is still affordable then the incentive to find a alternate is not s great
  • skunkboy69skunkboy69 Posts: 9,506
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    Zippy289 wrote: »
    Yes, we're still using our cars, but the price of petrol has shot up since then. The average price (according to the AA) was 34.25p per gallon in 1971; it's over £6 now.
    But thats to do with taxes not production or supply.
  • Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    source?

    No source.

    It was merely an illustration of what might happen with oil peak production. I'm wondering when we will reach that peak ?
    this is my point projections are just that projections

    no one knows what will be found or new techniques

    Agreed.

    i'm not saying that all the "easy" oils been found and production may have peaked

    Agreed. It may have peaked.
  • TassiumTassium Posts: 31,639
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    njp wrote: »
    Yes, but based on the increase in average earnings, that 1971 price was equivalent to £6.42 at 2009 prices...

    I think it's closer to £4 in today money.
  • TassiumTassium Posts: 31,639
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    The overall cost of buying and running a car must have come down in price in relation to earnings over the last 50 years. How else could you explain the rise in car use in the UK ?


    As for the reason why car use has increased, try using public transport for a few weeks and all will be revealed. It's a terrible service.

    Also a definate social stigma has become attached to the using of buses to get to work.

    Buses are also surprisingly expensive.


    (outside London at least)
  • topptopp Posts: 2,704
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    Tassium wrote: »
    As for the reason why car use has increased, try using public transport for a few weeks and all will be revealed. It's a terrible service.

    Also a definate social stigma has become attached to the using of buses to get to work.

    Buses are also surprisingly expensive.


    (outside London at least)

    Public transport only works if the Government behind it makes it work. The tax that Oil produces all along the chain is just too much to let go off. Easy money. Why improve Public Transport and decrease income from Oil?

    It's not in the benefit of Governments, Corporations or the economy.
  • TassiumTassium Posts: 31,639
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    topp wrote: »
    Public transport only works if the Government behind it makes it work. The tax that Oil produces all along the chain is just too much to let go off. Easy money. Why improve Public Transport and decrease income from Oil?

    It's not in the benefit of Governments, Corporations or the economy.

    Absolutely, and it also applies to "green" taxes and all the other tax-related stuff that is supposed to diminish usage.

    Such taxes actually increase usage since no credible alternatives ever get championed by the government of the day.
  • OLD HIPPY GUYOLD HIPPY GUY Posts: 28,199
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    44 years? at 58 with no children, I don't really care that much, unless of course reincarnation is real,
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