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Nate Silver Predicts UKIP will only have 1 MP
American data analysis Nate Silver who had predicted extremely accurately the US elections calculates UKIP will have just one MP.
283 Conservatives
270 Labour
048 SNP
024 Lib Dem
008 DUP
001 UKIP
016 Others
283 Conservatives
270 Labour
048 SNP
024 Lib Dem
008 DUP
001 UKIP
016 Others
0
Comments
Labour & the SNP could jointly muster more seats 318, they'd still be 8 short of a majority unless the LibDems joined to form a triolation of 342 seats.
Would the Tories being the largest party be tempted to struggle on as a minority government with the LibDems or will the LibDems decide to swing behind Labour if they know the SNP will be included?
Never happen. More likely Lab/SNP deal - although not full coalition.
If the result is the exact one that Nate predicted I struggle to see how any government could last very long coming out of them numbers, it would surely result in a 2nd election. It would be a terrible result for either party trying to form a government, mind you a swing of 10 seats on them numbers either way would be enough probably.
Yeah Reckless will be ousted.
Carswell is a certainty, Farage looks likely to take South Thanet and I expect them to hold on in Thurrock.
There are then a few constituencies where they are a strong second place according to the polls, and well within striking distance.
I don't expect them to get more than 5 but would be amazed if it was as low as 1.
I agree I think 3 is probably the most sensible prediction.
The Tard's predictions:
281 Labour
272 Conservatives
046 SNP
028 Lib Dem
007 DUP
003 UKIP
013 Others
Can the Tard be more accurate than the American brainy guy ?
The Ashcroft poll had Reckless ahead before re-weighting.
Given that Ashcroft tends to be one of the polls that gives Ukip lower numbers, I think R&S is still very much in play.
I agree however even if they win 3 seats that could be vital especially if the Tories remain in power. If the Tories get say 285 with lib dem 25, DUP 8-10 they still need UKIP.
But haven't the Lib-Dems ruled out being part of any coalition involving UKIP?
I was disappointed with last night's BBC Panorama programme. It said nothing new. It was presented in a rather Noddy's Guide to Westminster style. I'm not sure why the some of the dialogue was conducted in a silver caravan.
Not only that, but the programme's forecasts were taken from Election Forecast. The Election Forecast service is provided by Chris Henratty who also provided some commentary on the programme, too. BBC Newnsnight also use Chris Henratty's Election Forecast service.
I suspect the entire Election Forecast did most of the work for this Panorama programme. Nate Silver was merely a front for the programme. Richard Bacon added nothing and was little more than a comedy foil. Having watched the programme, I feel I wasted 30 minutes of my time.
They came second in the Heywood and Middleton by-election by less than 700 votes and are putting a lot of effort into winning it now but I haven't seen a single poll for that constituency.
Ashcroft had them just 3% behind Labour in Dudley North back in December but that figure hasn't been updated.
Have they strengthened there or have they gone the way of Great Grimsby and seemingly collapsed?
He's clearly never heard of Ashcroft's polling site.