House Prices to fall between 2% and max 5% in 2011

[Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,074
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Not as bad as some were forecasting.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=520269&in_page_id=57&expand=true

Rather strange that we could have average house prices higher at the year end 2010 compared to 12 months ago?
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/

“It is quite conceivable that by the final quarter of 2011, national house prices will not be that very different from where they currently stand,” Mr Rubinsohn said.

So we could see house prices at the end of 2011, slightly above or on par with year end 2009. Considering all that has happened, that would be amazing!
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  • Turnbull2000Turnbull2000 Posts: 7,588
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    Not as bad as some were forecasting.
    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=520269&in_page_id=57&expand=true

    Rather strange that we could have average house prices higher at the year end 2010 compared to 12 months ago?
    http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/

    “It is quite conceivable that by the final quarter of 2011, national house prices will not be that very different from where they currently stand,” Mr Rubinsohn said.

    So we could see house prices at the end of 2011, slightly above or on par with year end 2009. Considering all that has happened, that would be amazing!

    Not particularly amazing. First Labour and now the Tories have made every effort to sustain and increase prices.

    And why "bad"? Got a BTL? A swift correction would do wonders for the future of this country.
  • StykerStyker Posts: 49,559
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    I'm hoping they fall by a lot more and over the next 3 years I think they will as the cuts kick in.

    Even if the economy recovers, most people don't earn the slaray needed to afford mortgages these days.

    The Government, can try and run away from this as much as possilble, they will have to do a lot more on the issue of affordable homes than they have done previously and will have to do more than they want to.

    The Nimbys can try and outragously block and moan about houses being built but eventually the Government will have to act in the same way as the Governments did after the war when it came to building affordable homes.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 13,672
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    Being purely selfish, I would like to see the bottom fall out of the house prices as I can't afford a house to live in - I don't want an investment, just somewhere to call my own
  • Turnbull2000Turnbull2000 Posts: 7,588
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    Styker wrote: »
    The Nimbys can try and outragously block and moan about houses being built but eventually the Government will have to act in the same way as the Governments did after the war when it came to building affordable homes.

    Don't count on it. Politicians will always talk up the need for more housing, but will happily back any efforts to prevent construction behind the scenes.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,215
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    It seems rather an obsession in this country to have to own a house:confused: Why do people feel they have to do so at such young ages? Can't they wait? I don't think this applies to many countries:confused: Years ago, the majority were renting. Having said that, years ago, you viewed a room/flat/house, paid a week/2 weeks/a month in advance, and either side gave the same notice. So simple;)
  • AneechikAneechik Posts: 20,208
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    I think there will be substantial falls in local markets. For example, prices haven't fallen much this year at all but in Manchester city centre, some prices are down at 1990s levels. However, in the nicer suburbs, prices are still going up. So although the average may go up, it masks localised crashes.

    Another thing to consider is the raising of interest rates. There are growing demands for the Bank of England to raise the base rate but they have explicitly said they're resisting this at present to avoid a housing crash. They can't avoid doing the right thing forever.
  • stoatiestoatie Posts: 78,106
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    Windy999 wrote: »
    Being purely selfish, I would like to see the bottom fall out of the house prices as I can't afford a house to live in - I don't want an investment, just somewhere to call my own

    That's not selfish. We've got it all ass-backwards in this country when it comes to house prices. Something's fundamentally wrong with any society that sees the unaffordability of a basic human necessity as a bellwether of its success.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
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    gertrude wrote: »
    It seems rather an obsession in this country to have to own a house:confused: Why do people feel they have to do so at such young ages? Can't they wait? I don't think this applies to many countries:confused: Years ago, the majority were renting. Having said that, years ago, you viewed a room/flat/house, paid a week/2 weeks/a month in advance, and either side gave the same notice. So simple;)

    The thing about renting, though, is that you can keep paying rent for years and have nothing to show for it at the end. It's never your house. I prefer to live somewhere no landlord can kick me out of.
  • MickeyBricksMickeyBricks Posts: 1,677
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    It does make me laugh when I listen to people saying they only paid £160k for their house and now it's worth xyz... Do they ever actually sit down and work out how much their house really cost when mortgage interest, fees, survey etc are all taken into account?

    Housepricecrash.com always had good comparisons between renting and buying with the former always coming out on top at the end of an average 25 year mortgage. It used to take into account everything including:-

    Loss of interest over 25 years on funds required for deposit, survey, fees, legal costs etc

    Loss of income for structural defects (most homes would require replacement windows, roofs, two boilers, rewired, etc over 25 years)

    Potentail loss of deposit and any home investment should your circumstances change (25 years is a long time...)

    Loss of disposable income where life assurances are compulsory and where mortgage repayments significantly outweigh comparable monthly rentals.

    And of course the obvious fact that you hand over thousands every year to the lender - money which is as dead as handing it to a landlord.

    Many people would be surprised just how quickly they could save enough to buy outright, then they could claim they only paid xyz for their house!
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,074
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    I have no interest, other than being a home owner, in what happens to house prices.

    If they rise they rise, if they fall, they fall. Its all relative, if my house falls 5% in value then so do most of everyone elses.

    What stuns me, is the absolute ends of the earth, every UK government goes to keep house prices artificially higher than they are really worth. You only have to visit the USA and New Zealand to see what you get for your money.

    I have no reason to believe that this government will act any differently in propping the market up.
  • Analogue110Analogue110 Posts: 3,817
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    I purchased my first home in 1970 for £4000. Eight years, one wife, and two kids later, gentrification had arrived in our part of Islington, so we sold for £150,000 and made our way to leafy Surrey. Never looked back.
    I know it is hard to buy your first home, but it is worth the struggle.
  • Turnbull2000Turnbull2000 Posts: 7,588
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    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/poll/2010/dec/22/housingmarket-houseprices

    I see the supposed 'progressive', liberal, equality for all Guardian believes lower prices are bad too.
  • MadamfluffMadamfluff Posts: 3,310
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    Sorry Moneybricks buying is always better then renting
    We paid 25k for our two bedroomed flat in London I would imagine that we paid 40k over the 25 years of our mortgage but we sold for £250k

    Yes we pay for structural items and fittings but so do renters
    as most landlords make a profit on their rents and its this profits that pay for the repairs etc on their properties, and of course that shiny new bathroom and new roof that the tenants proudly say the LL paid for will be used by someone else when that tenant can no longer afford the rent or the LL wants to sell, yes mortgage payers may lose their homes if they cant afford their payments but at least they dont have to move every 6 months on the whim of their LL.

    And how can renting come out on top after 25 years, when a tenant will have to pay rent for a much longer period than that, after all if you start renting at the age of 20 and live until you are 70 you will be paying 50 years of rent, whilst a homeowner will pay a mortgage for 25 years and own their home with no mortgage or rent.

    And dont forget rents will go up depending on supply and demand mortgage payments will go up of course due to interest rates but not always at the same level, for instance my mortgage payments in the last year of my mortgage was £136 pm whilst the flat next door to mine was being rented out for over £1000 pm

    As for mortgage payments being dead money I honestly think that some of those HPC lot live on the planet of wishful thinking - as I said I sold for £250k thats a lot of dead money, I used less than 1/2 of that dead money to buy a new property for cash used some of the dead money on fixtures and fittings and the rest of my dead money is sitting in my bank account making more dead money
  • Turnbull2000Turnbull2000 Posts: 7,588
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    Sounds like you've been quite fortunate.

    The attitude towards housing in this country really is quite sickening.
  • StykerStyker Posts: 49,559
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    gertrude wrote: »
    It seems rather an obsession in this country to have to own a house:confused: Why do people feel they have to do so at such young ages? Can't they wait? I don't think this applies to many countries:confused: Years ago, the majority were renting. Having said that, years ago, you viewed a room/flat/house, paid a week/2 weeks/a month in advance, and either side gave the same notice. So simple;)

    Considering most mortgages are 25 years or longer, how old do you want people to be before tackling taking on a mortgage?

    Also, considering all the other massive costs facing us, pension, good education and up bringing of children if you have them, then its better to start early.
  • StykerStyker Posts: 49,559
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    Don't count on it. Politicians will always talk up the need for more housing, but will happily back any efforts to prevent construction behind the scenes.

    They are running out of time, both Government and the Nimbys. Though young people once they become home owners also become nimbys too quite often! :mad:

    The issue is getting so bad/big, that they can't fob it off for much longer.

    I'm hearing/reading people go on about the plight of older people a lot these days and my thinking is becoming more and more, that its the older generations that has made housing so expensive for younger people because of their nimbyism, so should I care about the older when they need help? I think more people will start to think like this as time goes on. Not good, but they can't have it both ways is the way I see it.
  • Turnbull2000Turnbull2000 Posts: 7,588
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    Styker wrote: »
    Considering most mortgages are 25 years or longer, how ld do yuo want people to be before tackling taking on a mortgage?

    Also, considering all the other massive costs facing us, pension, good education and up bringing of children if you have them, then its better to start early.

    That all well and good, but the fact is is that taking on a mortgage and all those other priorities you mention are happening later and later, if at all.
  • StykerStyker Posts: 49,559
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    That all well and good, but the fact is is that taking on a mortgage and all those other priorities you mention are happening later and later, if at all.

    Thats beause they are forced to thats why, becuase hse prices are so over priced, otherwise people would buy homes or fly the nest earlier.
  • Turnbull2000Turnbull2000 Posts: 7,588
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    Styker wrote: »
    Thats beause they are forced to thats why, becuase hse prices are so over priced, otherwise people would buy homes or fly the nest earlier.

    Ahh, but reversing this trend would be "bad" remember, such are the demands of older owners.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 2,597
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    The more prices fall, the less I have to give Mr BB when I divorce him. Bring it on, I say.
  • StykerStyker Posts: 49,559
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    Ahh, but reversing this trend would be "bad" remember, such are the demands of older owners.

    If older people don't like it, my messege to them would be tough and how dare they expect sky high prices for their property when most of them got their houses them dirt cheap?

    Everyone should have the right to get an affordable home to rent or buy as long as they are not anti social once in their and if they are - evict them! :D Seriously!
  • MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    OP - this is just a prediction.

    No one has any idea where house prices will go next year - its just guessswork. Basically any excuse to get their bank/estate agency firm/economic forecasting unit into the papers. Average figures are meaningless anyway - house prices in Kensington do not move in the same way as house prices in Kirkcaldy.

    PS I predict every house in the UK will see its price fall next year by exactly 2.738717%. Prove me wrong?!:D
  • MartinPMartinP Posts: 31,358
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    Where is my friend Andy, and does he still forecast a fall of 25% next year?
  • MadamfluffMadamfluff Posts: 3,310
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    Styker wrote: »
    If older people don't like it, my messege to them would be tough and how dare they expect sky high prices for their property when most of them got their houses them dirt cheap?

    Everyone should have the right to get an affordable home to rent or buy as long as they are not anti social once in their and if they are - evict them! :D Seriously!


    Dirt cheap you have GOT to be joking, when I first got my mortgage which was for 18k (we could only get 1 1/2 times salary and had to use savings for the rest) I was earning 3k a year yes 3k a year my husband was on 9k a year.

    We couldnt buy in a 'nice' area we had to take what we could afford.

    Looking at ads for people starting out in the professions me and OH are in a young couple doing what we did and working in the same industry would be earning 60k between them.

    and please dont tell me a FTB couple cant buy in London on a combined salary of 60k , my Nephew and his wife on a combined salary of 40k bought a flat in north London this year. Ok they saved up for a few years to get a deposit something that a lot of young people seem unable to unwilling to do
  • StykerStyker Posts: 49,559
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    Madamfluff wrote: »
    Dirt cheap you have GOT to be joking, when I first got my mortgage which was for 18k (we could only get 1 1/2 times salary and had to use savings for the rest) I was earning 3k a year yes 3k a year my husband was on 9k a year.

    We couldnt buy in a 'nice' area we had to take what we could afford.

    Looking at ads for people starting out in the professions me and OH are in a young couple doing what we did and working in the same industry would be earning 60k between them.

    and please dont tell me a FTB couple cant buy in London on a combined salary of 60k , my Nephew and his wife on a combined salary of 40k bought a flat in north London this year. Ok they saved up for a few years to get a deposit something that a lot of young people seem unable to unwilling to do

    I don't know how long ago you buying your 18 thousand pounds house was, but earning 3 thousand a year and your house was 18 thousand doesn't sound bad to me.

    I don't earn anywhere near the "avearage wage of about 24-27 thousand", but if you where to x that by three you would have 81 thousand and you wouldn't be able to get anything for that in most parst of southern england unless you go for part rent/part buy.

    Though Homes under the Hammer auctions showed auctions last year of houses going for around 75 thousand but that was slap bang in the middle of the recession, I doubt on the open market houses where going for that price.

    Also even up to the mid 90's, I knew people buying their council houses for 25 thousand and those houses are worth even now well over 200 thousand, if not 250 thousand.
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