What is your Seat Predictions for the Parties.

Katla Revenger · 29/04/10 - 01:46

Mine.

Labour - 279.

Conservative - 293.

Liberal - 45.

Others - 33.

[Deleted User] · 29/04/10 - 03:21

I think that is a ridiculously low number for the Liberal Democrats.

Conservative Party - 285
Labour Party - 239
Liberal Democrats - 87
Others - 35

Something along these lines anyway.

crazychris12 · 29/04/10 - 08:34

Conservatives - 340 (OM of 14)
Labour - 192
LD - 84
Others - 34

wallster · 29/04/10 - 08:41

crazychris12 wrote: »

Conservatives - 340 (OM of 14)
Labour - 192
LD - 84
Others - 34

I like your prediction but it is way too early to say. This campaign is so volatile.

[Deleted User] · 29/04/10 - 09:15

I am fairly confident that:

The Conservatives will win more seats than UNS suggests
Labour will win far fewer seats than UNS suggests

Currently I think something like:

Con 300
Lab 200
LD 120
Oth 30

If the polls are overstating Labour as they usually do, if there is a late swing towards the Conservatives or if their vote is concentrated where they need it to be then I can see them getting a small overall majority. On balance though I think the most likely outcome is the figures I've listed above.

BRMB · 29/04/10 - 09:17

So you think the Lib Dems are going to lose 18 seats OP?

I would suggest a more realistic figure would be that they gain between 5 and 11, so around 68-74 seats total.

Albacom · 29/04/10 - 09:22

BRMB wrote: »

So you think the Lib Dems are going to lose 18 seats OP?

I would suggest a more realistic figure would be that they gain between 5 and 11, so around 68-74 seats total.

Yes, my predictions are:

Conservatives 331
Labour 234
Lib Dems 71
Others 16

Giving the Conservatives a majority of 10.

CRTHD · 29/04/10 - 10:08

Not sure about seats but my thinking is along the lines of:

Natural Tories will vote Tory.

Natural Lib-Dems will vote Lib-Dem.

Natural Labour voters will vote either Labour, Lib-Dem or any other (non-Tory) party.

This leaves the "floating" or "first-time" voters who will react to events over the next week before deciding who if anyone to vote for. At a guess this will probably pan out at something like 36% Tory 30% Lib-Dem 25% Labour 8% others.

I believe that the Lib-Dems will take far more votes away from Labour than from the Tories but the Lib-Dem share of the vote will be insufficient to markedly increase their Westminster seats.

Therefore I predict the Tories will acheive a working majority.

I confess this is very much wishful thinking!:D

Barbella · 29/04/10 - 11:53

CRTHD wrote: »

Not sure about seats but my thinking is along the lines of:

Natural Tories will vote Tory.

Natural Lib-Dems will vote Lib-Dem.

Natural Labour voters will vote either Labour, Lib-Dem or any other (non-Tory) party.

This leaves the "floating" or "first-time" voters who will react to events over the next week before deciding who if anyone to vote for. At a guess this will probably pan out at something like 36% Tory 30% Lib-Dem 25% Labour 8% others.

I believe that the Lib-Dems will take far more votes away from Labour than from the Tories but the Lib-Dem share of the vote will be insufficient to markedly increase their Westminster seats.

Therefore I predict the Tories will acheive a working majority.

I confess this is very much wishful thinking!:D

I aggree with you.

However for me, it would be a bloody nightmare.

Multimedia81 · 29/04/10 - 12:07

Conservatives 280
Labour 260
LibDems 80
Northern Irish parties 18
SNP 7
Plaid Cymru 3
Richard Taylor 1
Green 1

Katla Revenger · 29/04/10 - 12:28

Galvatron wrote: »

I am fairly confident that:
The Conservatives will win more seats than UNS suggests

Labour will win far fewer seats than UNS suggests

Currently I think something like:

Con 300
Lab 200
LD 120
Oth 30

If the polls are overstating Labour as they usually do, if there is a late swing towards the Conservatives or if their vote is concentrated where they need it to be then I can see them getting a small overall majority. On balance though I think the most likely outcome is the figures I've listed above.

Well thats a prediction i never imagined,:eek: still anything is possible.:)

CRTHD wrote: »

Not sure about seats but my thinking is along the lines of:

Natural Tories will vote Tory.

Natural Lib-Dems will vote Lib-Dem.

Natural Labour voters will vote either Labour, Lib-Dem or any other (non-Tory) party.

This leaves the "floating" or "first-time" voters who will react to events over the next week before deciding who if anyone to vote for. At a guess this will probably pan out at something like 36% Tory 30% Lib-Dem 25% Labour 8% others.

I believe that the Lib-Dems will take far more votes away from Labour than from the Tories but the Lib-Dem share of the vote will be insufficient to markedly increase their Westminster seats.

Therefore I predict the Tories will acheive a working majority.

I confess this is very much wishful thinking!:D

Good post.:)

[Deleted User] · 29/04/10 - 15:11

Katla Revenger wrote: »

Well thats a prediction i never imagined,:eek: still anything is possible.:)

Amazingly, 538.com (who predicted the results in 49 of the 50 US states) have today come up with very similar predictions:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/uk-seats-projection-tories-299-labour.html

[Deleted User] · 29/04/10 - 15:16

I prefer to predict percentages as the seats will vary due to local factors and tactical voting as well.
Conservative 35%
Lib Dem 28%
Labour 24%
Others 13%

[Deleted User] · 29/04/10 - 15:20

BillyNidNod wrote: »

I prefer to predict percentages as the seats will vary due to local factors and tactical voting as well.
Conservative 35%
Lib Dem 28%
Labour 24%
Others 13%

I'll say:

Con 35.5%
Labour 27.5%
Lib Dem 26.5%
Others 10.5%

For now...

Hey there!

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