It might be the case that the Tories need every seat they can get though.
Gove denying that a deal will be done with UKIP is the same as Miliband saying that he won't do a deak with Sturgeon. Both parties have to continue to appear confident that they can win a majority. Once we actually get the numbers and the hung parliament we expect, then they won't be so unequivocal to rule anything out.
Given the way how the poll numbers actually are (33% +/-1%) for both largest parties, it is highly delusional of them to think that they will get a majority and I hope that most people would be able to see through that blatant posturing.
Given the way how the poll numbers actually are (33% +/-1%) for both largest parties, it is highly delusional of them to think that they will get a majority and I hope that most people would be able to see through that blatant posturing.
I would assume so, but they still have to keep campaigning for their own side first. Especially in Miliband's case where his party is in direct competition with the SNP, although he may as well just cut the useless Murphy and co. loose at this point.
Still feels a good bit away for me. Manifestos are out, The polls have been relatively consistent to the point of stalemate and all the potential alliances have been discussed to death so I'm not sure what more the parties can really do. I can see a dull few weeks as their afraid of doing anything to damage their positions.
Still feels a good bit away for me. Manifestos are out, The polls have been relatively consistent to the point of stalemate and all the potential alliances have been discussed to death so I'm not sure what more the parties can really do. I can see a dull few weeks as their afraid of doing anything to damage their positions.
I think it will be relatively "still" until it gets to 7 days to go where naturally people who are "undecided" will be tuning in watching more etc.
Someone mentioned in the previous part of this thread (before part 3 was made) that Swinson may defy the odds in Dunbartonshire East, well according to this constituency poll, it tells a much different story: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/east-dunbartonshire/
I think the effect of name recognition gets lost in polls like this one. If you give a list of parties and ask who you are voting for you get one answer. If you actually mention the candidates by name. people recognise Swinson's name and you get a different result. I still think she may lose but I think it could be close.
I think the effect of name recognition gets lost in polls like this one. If you give a list of parties and ask who you are voting for you get one answer. If you actually mention the candidates by name. people recognise Swinson's name and you get a different result. I still think she may lose but I think it could be close.
Yes, how the questions are asked can have a role to play in the answers received. "Which party do you intend to vote for?" could indeed produced a different a different result from "Which candidate do you intend to vote for in this constituency?" even if the latter question is accompanied naming the party, e.g., "Jo Swinson, the Liberal Democrat Candidate".
Notwithstanding the general UK and Scottish polls, I suspect that a number of Liberal Democrat and Scottish Labour MPs will survive the worst predictions.
Given the way how the poll numbers actually are (33% +/-1%) for both largest parties, it is highly delusional of them to think that they will get a majority and I hope that most people would be able to see through that blatant posturing.
But if either party publicly accepted that they would not get a majority, it would be portrayed as being defeatist, lacking the spine for a fight, giving up etc. It would also be bad for party morale, especially on the ground.
Are there any more polls this evening. It's far to soon to go by one poll. Be interesting to see more polls, if there are any tonight or within the next few days. But I thought the Conservatives would eventually increase there lead during the official election campaign.
Ian.
Are there any more polls this evening. It's far to soon to go by one poll. Be interesting to see more polls, if there are any tonight or within the next few days. But I thought the Conservatives would eventually increase there lead during the official election campaign.
Ian.
I'd suggest looking at tonight's Sky News press review at 11.30pm and they should hopefully be covering the latest political developments including the polls.
Are there any more polls this evening. It's far to soon to go by one poll. Be interesting to see more polls, if there are any tonight or within the next few days.
According to UK Polling Report, ComRes may be coming in at 7.30 and YouGov will be coming in at 9.30.
within moe so im not going to get too excited but i am happy with that poll. How are these numbers compared with opiniums last poll?
The last debate was a shambles and very bad for Miliband - people could see that Sturgeon would dominate him and any sort of coalition or loose arrangement.
Comments
Given the way how the poll numbers actually are (33% +/-1%) for both largest parties, it is highly delusional of them to think that they will get a majority and I hope that most people would be able to see through that blatant posturing.
I would assume so, but they still have to keep campaigning for their own side first. Especially in Miliband's case where his party is in direct competition with the SNP, although he may as well just cut the useless Murphy and co. loose at this point.
These days both pride and embarrassment are neck and neck when it comes to Labour/Conservative.
From the link: (embarrassed/proud)
Labour: 33/20
....Con: 39/17
We know how these polls work, that's a statistical tie.
;-)
I think it will be relatively "still" until it gets to 7 days to go where naturally people who are "undecided" will be tuning in watching more etc.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/east-dunbartonshire/
Yes, how the questions are asked can have a role to play in the answers received. "Which party do you intend to vote for?" could indeed produced a different a different result from "Which candidate do you intend to vote for in this constituency?" even if the latter question is accompanied naming the party, e.g., "Jo Swinson, the Liberal Democrat Candidate".
Notwithstanding the general UK and Scottish polls, I suspect that a number of Liberal Democrat and Scottish Labour MPs will survive the worst predictions.
CON 36
LAB 32
LD 8
UKIP 13
GRN 5
Yikes not looking for Labour if that trend continues
within moe so im not going to get too excited but i am happy with that poll. How are these numbers compared with opiniums last poll?
CON 38
LAB 32
LD 9
UKIP 14
GRN 6
A 2.5% CON to LAB swing since 2010
Ian.
I'd suggest looking at tonight's Sky News press review at 11.30pm and they should hopefully be covering the latest political developments including the polls.
Con =
Lab -2
Lib Dem +1
UKIP +2
Green -1
Others =
According to UK Polling Report, ComRes may be coming in at 7.30 and YouGov will be coming in at 9.30.
England only -
Con 38
Lab 32
LD 9
UKIP 14
Grren 6
Scotland:
Con 18
Lab 28
LD 8
SNP 40
UKIP 2
Greens 3
Wales
Con 26
Lab 37
LD 6
Plaid 10
UKip 17
Greens 3
BNP 2 ?????
David Cameron
Net 0
England +4
Scotland -23
Wales -13
Ed Miliband
Net -18
England -16
Scotland -33
Wales -6
Nick Clegg
Net -32
England -29
Scotland - 51
Wale s- 42
Nigel Farrage
Net -18
England -16
Scotland -40
Wales -13
so Cameron has a plus ten point approval rating over Ed in Scotland shows Labour is in trouble
The last debate was a shambles and very bad for Miliband - people could see that Sturgeon would dominate him and any sort of coalition or loose arrangement.
Farage has not suffered neither has Sturgeon.
Moral: Avoid TV debates.
CON - 36% (-)
LAB - 32% (-2)
UKIP - 13% (+2)
LDEM - 8% (+1)
GRN - 5% (-1)