Bu surely a time delay would be the most dissapointing show in history, basically it would leave Derren to walk onto the stage/studio on Friday and say all of about 3 senteces then walk off again?
There must be more to it than that, I can't belive three things at the moment:
1. He will use a time delay
2. He will guess the correct numbers (or 5 out of 6)
3. He will in any way influence the drawing of the national lottery.
So there has to be more to this than we know already.
You know that one of the 'Tricks' is a 'casino-related scam with a twist'?
Well I wonder when this will be?
You see, I know Derron will be aboard a cruise ship a fortnight this Wednesday, (as will I) & I know this cruise ship has a Casino, including Roulette Wheels. (Black & Red).
So what do you think the chances are? Or am I being silly. I don't even know if Live TV is possible from a ship at sea.
If you are saying that the history of past balls can be used to predict future balls, that would mean the lottery isn't random which would be a huge scandal.
I'm expecting it to be some kind of trick which means the lottery doesn't need to be closed down.
It could be a combination of two things: (1) going out and buying a few thousand lottery tickets, at random but all with different numbers, so he gets good coverage, and then only showing us the ticket that gets the most numbers; (2) using the time-delay to announce the numbers a few seconds before the official announcement.
Not being a conspiracy theory person, but I've said for a long long time I personally believe the lottery is controlled, but that isn't a discussion for this thread
His statement bout the research though, the only main research that he could do I would think, as he's predicting the winning numbers, not people, not amounts etc, is if he has got a team of people who pulled together all the results to see a pattern, such as number of times drawn.
My maths is rubbish, but say for example the numbers, 23, 29, 30 had all been drawn 80+ times more than any others, would you not fancy the probability of picking one of those as a dead set winner? Now apply that to say 10 numbers out of the 49 (it is 49 isn't it?) and he could hit a really high probability of getting them right
He must have access to results and patterns such as this...
My maths is rubbish, but say for example the numbers, 23, 29, 30 had all been drawn 80+ times more than any others, would you not fancy the probability of picking one of those as a dead set winner? Now apply that to say 10 numbers out of the 49 (it is 49 isn't it?) and he could hit a really high probability of getting them right
Each lottery draw is completely independent of all the previous ones. It's completely impossible to predict what numbers will come up.... other than they'll be between 1 and 49
Each lottery draw is completely independent of all the previous ones. It's completely impossible to predict what numbers will come up.... other than they'll be between 1 and 49
Or we could be looking at one of the biggest conspiracies this country has ever seen.........
It's all too simple to reduce the Lottery to a Government scam - keeping the poor poor and letting the lizards thrive, etc. You know what's really scary though?
Well it would be wouldn't it? If the lottery was 'fiddled' etc.
I couldn't explain about physically selecting the balls in the machine. What has always interested me, is when you fill in a ticket, and you give it to the shop person who does it, they run it through the machine, which neatly prints it off. It also sends of the numbers you've chosen - otherwise how does the commentator/voice-over guy go "early indications show we have 2 jack pot winners!" They have a record of all selections made. Now, if you go by that, they can use many formula's, patterns, stats etc to produce lottery balls in a certain combination which minimizes number of winners etc.
Biggest flaw is that they would prolly need an hour/half hour before live show to organise, which means you could buy a ticket jus before the show and if you're incredibly lucky, miss the stats which won't incorporate your numbers....
But hey, what do i know, i jus enjoy the idea! It'd be quite funny!
They have a record of all selections made. Now, if you go by that, they can use many formula's, patterns, stats etc to produce lottery balls in a certain combination which minimizes number of winners etc.
Certainly yeah, they could do that. But they're making such obscene amounts of money anyway, they couldn't risk someone letting the cat out of the bag, which would lead to a massive drop in the numbers of people playing, and hence much less money!
I think this whole Derren Brown thing is to do with gullibility... he thinks that everyone who plays the lottery is gullible, so he can fool them into believing a certain 5 numbers have come up, when they haven't!
[In the interests of full disclosure, I have bought 1 ticket for every single lottery since it started!]
You know that one of the 'Tricks' is a 'casino-related scam with a twist'?
Well I wonder when this will be?
You see, I know Derron will be aboard a cruise ship a fortnight this Wednesday, (as will I) & I know this cruise ship has a Casino, including Roulette Wheels. (Black & Red).
So what do you think the chances are? Or am I being silly. I don't even know if Live TV is possible from a ship at sea.
I don't really see why it wouldn't be possible, most ships now have a good internet connection which must come in via sattelite. I don't see why they could not use the same dish to transmit to one of Channel 4's recievers.
Also I could be wrong here but if the casion is at sea then which laws apply? Of course they would need the consent of the owners before they "scammed" them anyway.
Edit: This could of course just be a lie to make sure we all tune in on Wedneday night to watch a 10 minute advert/subliminal in preperation for his main show to kick off live on Friday? Lets face it is there anyone reading this that dosn't plan to tune in to watch?
It's all too simple to reduce the Lottery to a Government scam - keeping the poor poor and letting the lizards thrive, etc. You know what's really scary though?
Random.
Awww don't spoil the fun
Plus when you get draws where there's 3 numbers like 12, 13, 14. You really think thats random?
Cos lets be honest...what is the likelihood of someones 6 numbers consisting of (for example) 4, 6, 12, 13, 14, 18. Very slim, as most people would go "naaaaah those numbers will never get drawn!".........
Plus when you get draws where there's 3 numbers like 12, 13, 14. You really think thats random?
Cos lets be honest...what is the likelihood of someones 6 numbers consisting of (for example) 4, 6, 12, 13, 14, 18. Very slim, as most people would go "naaaaah those numbers will never get drawn!".........
Scientifically the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 have exactly the same chance of being drawn as say 12, 24, 39, 42, 49. However because there are so many combinations of numbers you could be playing for centuries before this occured.
Or, indeed, 1 2 3 4 5 and 6. (Got there before me!)
It's not quite as simple as 1:49 chance for each ball though, as DB will no doubt explain. To pull out a series of sequential numbers would be considerably less likely than numbers separate from each other - just not impossible.
However, I think we all know that some trickery is going to come into play that will leave most people dumbfounded and magic/DB fans slightly disappointed. I think the call "could be a career breaker" is a big hint that if the stunt goes wrong, it could expose a number of tricks that Derren uses and take his entire mystique away. He's worked really hard to keep it going for this long - not even Blaine managed that!
It's like the question "If I flip a coin, what's the chance of getting a head?".
Scientifically the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 have exactly the same chance of being drawn as say 12, 24, 39, 42, 49. However because there are so many combinations of numbers you could be playing for centuries before this occured.
True!
If Mr Brown's people have got information though, and found a pattern.....or at least some element of predictability that they're confident they can get at least 3 out of 6 or whatever, that would be quite funny for them to explain......alot more people would win the lottery methinks!
Thinking about the whole idea of the numbers being consecutive, there are 44 possible combinations of consecutive numbers. The first being 1,2,3,4,5,6 and the last being 44,45,46,47,48,49.
The total number of combinations for the lottery is 13,983,816. Therefore there is 44 in 13,983,816, which is 1 in 317,814 chance of them coming out consecutive and a 1 in 13983772 chance that they will not. So ye it is much much more likely that they will not be consecutive.
However every single combination regardless of order etc.. has a 1 in 13983816 chance of coming out.
Interestingly that means that based on a draw twice a week you would have to wait on average 3055 years until the numbers come out consecutively. And while finding this info I came across a good little lottery tip: You should ALWAYS buy your ticket on a Friday or Saturday because if you buy it on a Suinday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday you are more likely to die before the draw than to actually win!
Thinking about the whole idea of the numbers being consecutive, there are 44 possible combinations of consecutive numbers. The first being 1,2,3,4,5,6 and the last being 44,45,46,47,48,49.
The total number of combinations for the lottery is 13,983,816. Therefore there is 44 in 13,983,816, which is 1 in 317,814 chance of them coming out consecutive and a 1 in 13983772 chance that they will not. So ye it is much much more likely that they will not be consecutive.
However every single combination regardless of order etc.. has a 1 in 13983816 chance of coming out.
Interestingly that means that based on a draw twice a week you would have to wait on average 3055 years until the numbers come out consecutively. And while finding this info I came across a good little lottery tip: You should ALWAYS buy your ticket on a Friday or Saturday because if you buy it on a Suinday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday you are more likely to die before the draw than to actually win!
Hahaha, I jus saw a lot of numbers there and my brain went to mush. I never expected the lottery to do like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 as it would be obvious. But it's got more like that over time definately. You get a lot more '3 in a row's' now in the lottery than you used to, definately. Wouldn't be suprised if in a couple years, the numbers that come out on a saturday will be something like; 15,16,17,18, 20,31.....
If Mr Brown's people have got information though, and found a pattern.....or at least some element of predictability that they're confident they can get at least 3 out of 6 or whatever
No such pattern exists. You can be certain of getting at least 3 out of 6 but you'll have to be prepared to buy an awful lot of tickets to cover all the possibilities.
The great thing would be if, entirely by chance, he happens to correctly 'predict' all six numbers. I'd love to see the frenzy that would cause.
Hahaha, I jus saw a lot of numbers there and my brain went to mush. I never expected the lottery to do like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 as it would be obvious. But it's got more like that over time definately. You get a lot more '3 in a row's' now in the lottery than you used to, definately. Wouldn't be suprised if in a couple years, the numbers that come out on a saturday will be something like; 15,16,17,18, 20,31.....
Anything's possible!
No. The lottery doesn't have a memory. The statistical probability of ANY number combination is 1 in 13983816.
No such pattern exists. You can be certain of getting at least 3 out of 6 but you'll have to be prepared to buy an awful lot of tickets to cover all the possibilities.
The great thing would be if, entirely by chance, he happens to correctly 'predict' all six numbers. I'd love to see the frenzy that would cause.
There are prolly a few mathematical patterns that haven't been discovered yet I would imagine anyways.
If he genuinely predicts them knowing crazy people that are out there, someone would do something silly, that'd be my guess.
He's not buying tickets though. I took it to mean he's gonna write down 6 numbers before the draw, which could easily mean he has his 6 numbers chosen based on the 'hypothetical information' he might have should my method be right (which i doubt :P)
No. The lottery doesn't have a memory. The statistical probability of ANY number combination is 1 in 13983816.
The patterns you see are illusory.
Ok, well perhaps 'pattern' is the wrong word.
If there's 10 balls out of the 49 (it is 49 isn't it?!) that appear way more ofter than the others, conspiracy, fiddled, however the case maybe, if there is, then that could be where he is getting his numbers from.
As the numbers are being projected on major landmarks around the country maybe someone could go for a drive round get the numbers and let us know before the draw...
Ah, the Casino Trick will be aired on Friday 2nd October. So if it were filmed aboard Aurora, it would have to be recorded, as he will most probably be onboard on Thursday 24th September.
What you all seem to have missed regarding the lottery is that there are 4 or 5 lottery machines which have different spin cycles. Along with using different sets of balls. These balls are laid out in the chute above the wheel differently. In one example set of balls 1 could run vertically, while balls 2 could run horizontally. Plus many more different patterns depending on the 7 or 9 different ball sets. This adds in more randomness due to the fact that there is less chance of machine or ball bias
Comments
There must be more to it than that, I can't belive three things at the moment:
1. He will use a time delay
2. He will guess the correct numbers (or 5 out of 6)
3. He will in any way influence the drawing of the national lottery.
So there has to be more to this than we know already.
Well I wonder when this will be?
You see, I know Derron will be aboard a cruise ship a fortnight this Wednesday, (as will I) & I know this cruise ship has a Casino, including Roulette Wheels. (Black & Red).
So what do you think the chances are? Or am I being silly. I don't even know if Live TV is possible from a ship at sea.
Not being a conspiracy theory person, but I've said for a long long time I personally believe the lottery is controlled, but that isn't a discussion for this thread
His statement bout the research though, the only main research that he could do I would think, as he's predicting the winning numbers, not people, not amounts etc, is if he has got a team of people who pulled together all the results to see a pattern, such as number of times drawn.
My maths is rubbish, but say for example the numbers, 23, 29, 30 had all been drawn 80+ times more than any others, would you not fancy the probability of picking one of those as a dead set winner? Now apply that to say 10 numbers out of the 49 (it is 49 isn't it?) and he could hit a really high probability of getting them right
He must have access to results and patterns such as this...
jus my thoughts
Each lottery draw is completely independent of all the previous ones. It's completely impossible to predict what numbers will come up.... other than they'll be between 1 and 49
Or we could be looking at one of the biggest conspiracies this country has ever seen.........
Tell us more!
Random.
Hahahaha
Well it would be wouldn't it? If the lottery was 'fiddled' etc.
I couldn't explain about physically selecting the balls in the machine. What has always interested me, is when you fill in a ticket, and you give it to the shop person who does it, they run it through the machine, which neatly prints it off. It also sends of the numbers you've chosen - otherwise how does the commentator/voice-over guy go "early indications show we have 2 jack pot winners!" They have a record of all selections made. Now, if you go by that, they can use many formula's, patterns, stats etc to produce lottery balls in a certain combination which minimizes number of winners etc.
Biggest flaw is that they would prolly need an hour/half hour before live show to organise, which means you could buy a ticket jus before the show and if you're incredibly lucky, miss the stats which won't incorporate your numbers....
But hey, what do i know, i jus enjoy the idea! It'd be quite funny!
Certainly yeah, they could do that. But they're making such obscene amounts of money anyway, they couldn't risk someone letting the cat out of the bag, which would lead to a massive drop in the numbers of people playing, and hence much less money!
I think this whole Derren Brown thing is to do with gullibility... he thinks that everyone who plays the lottery is gullible, so he can fool them into believing a certain 5 numbers have come up, when they haven't!
[In the interests of full disclosure, I have bought 1 ticket for every single lottery since it started!]
I don't really see why it wouldn't be possible, most ships now have a good internet connection which must come in via sattelite. I don't see why they could not use the same dish to transmit to one of Channel 4's recievers.
Also I could be wrong here but if the casion is at sea then which laws apply? Of course they would need the consent of the owners before they "scammed" them anyway.
Edit: This could of course just be a lie to make sure we all tune in on Wedneday night to watch a 10 minute advert/subliminal in preperation for his main show to kick off live on Friday? Lets face it is there anyone reading this that dosn't plan to tune in to watch?
Awww don't spoil the fun
Plus when you get draws where there's 3 numbers like 12, 13, 14. You really think thats random?
Cos lets be honest...what is the likelihood of someones 6 numbers consisting of (for example) 4, 6, 12, 13, 14, 18. Very slim, as most people would go "naaaaah those numbers will never get drawn!".........
Scientifically the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 have exactly the same chance of being drawn as say 12, 24, 39, 42, 49. However because there are so many combinations of numbers you could be playing for centuries before this occured.
It's not quite as simple as 1:49 chance for each ball though, as DB will no doubt explain. To pull out a series of sequential numbers would be considerably less likely than numbers separate from each other - just not impossible.
However, I think we all know that some trickery is going to come into play that will leave most people dumbfounded and magic/DB fans slightly disappointed. I think the call "could be a career breaker" is a big hint that if the stunt goes wrong, it could expose a number of tricks that Derren uses and take his entire mystique away. He's worked really hard to keep it going for this long - not even Blaine managed that!
It's like the question "If I flip a coin, what's the chance of getting a head?".
True!
If Mr Brown's people have got information though, and found a pattern.....or at least some element of predictability that they're confident they can get at least 3 out of 6 or whatever, that would be quite funny for them to explain......alot more people would win the lottery methinks!
The total number of combinations for the lottery is 13,983,816. Therefore there is 44 in 13,983,816, which is 1 in 317,814 chance of them coming out consecutive and a 1 in 13983772 chance that they will not. So ye it is much much more likely that they will not be consecutive.
However every single combination regardless of order etc.. has a 1 in 13983816 chance of coming out.
Interestingly that means that based on a draw twice a week you would have to wait on average 3055 years until the numbers come out consecutively. And while finding this info I came across a good little lottery tip: You should ALWAYS buy your ticket on a Friday or Saturday because if you buy it on a Suinday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday you are more likely to die before the draw than to actually win!
Hahaha, I jus saw a lot of numbers there and my brain went to mush. I never expected the lottery to do like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 as it would be obvious. But it's got more like that over time definately. You get a lot more '3 in a row's' now in the lottery than you used to, definately. Wouldn't be suprised if in a couple years, the numbers that come out on a saturday will be something like; 15,16,17,18, 20,31.....
Anything's possible!
No such pattern exists. You can be certain of getting at least 3 out of 6 but you'll have to be prepared to buy an awful lot of tickets to cover all the possibilities.
The great thing would be if, entirely by chance, he happens to correctly 'predict' all six numbers. I'd love to see the frenzy that would cause.
No. The lottery doesn't have a memory. The statistical probability of ANY number combination is 1 in 13983816.
The patterns you see are illusory.
There are prolly a few mathematical patterns that haven't been discovered yet I would imagine anyways.
If he genuinely predicts them knowing crazy people that are out there, someone would do something silly, that'd be my guess.
He's not buying tickets though. I took it to mean he's gonna write down 6 numbers before the draw, which could easily mean he has his 6 numbers chosen based on the 'hypothetical information' he might have should my method be right (which i doubt :P)
Ok, well perhaps 'pattern' is the wrong word.
If there's 10 balls out of the 49 (it is 49 isn't it?!) that appear way more ofter than the others, conspiracy, fiddled, however the case maybe, if there is, then that could be where he is getting his numbers from.
But here are the numbers drawn in the last 4 Thunderball draws.
4 9 14 22 25
9 12 14 17 28
8 12 13 17 28
7 11 13 17 21
Hard to look at those and not think these are non random, isn't it?
They obviously are random but patterns leap out at you and scream to the way our minds works that these recurrences just have to have significance.
Maybe this is how DB will manipulate our thinking.
PS: He has just been on between Deal or No Deal ad breaks saying he wilol predict the lottery numbers live on Wednesday.
http://uk.tv.yahoo.com/blog/article/245760/